[Summary]
The black swan theory is a concept that refers to events that occur infrequently but have a large impact.
The black swan theory is not only about reading market prices, but it can also be used to check where you tend to get impatient.
In actual investment, the starting point is to prepare for the unexpected and confirm diversification. However, you need to be careful that if you are too afraid of everything, you will not be able to take risks.
In this article, we will organize the black swan theory not as "knowledge" but as a procedure to check before buying or selling. Don't rush to conclusions, read according to your financial amount and time horizon.
The first thing to differentiate using the black swan theory
When looking at the black swan theory, first determine what you want to judge. The information you need will change depending on whether you want to know the meaning, confirm before buying or selling, or review your current holdings.
Especially for beginners in investing, the easier the words are, the more they tend to take them as a conclusion. The black swan theory alone cannot be used as a basis for making decisions. If you want to check it, it is more realistic to look at it in conjunction with fund management, holding period, and opposing materials.
The gap between black swan theory and emotions
If we look at the black swan theory as an investment psychology, we first need to make narrow assumptions. It is important not to mix up whether you are talking about the market as a whole, individual stocks, NISA or long-term funds.
Checking the following points will make things a lot easier.
| Axis to check | What we see with the black swan theory |
|---|---|
| purpose | What do you use to judge? |
| Time axis | Which is closer to short-term trading, long-term holding, or NISA? |
| basis | Which one is more important: price, business performance, interest rates, exchange rates, or psychology? |
| risk | When things go the other way, where should you look again? |
| action | Will it lead to buying, selling, or doing nothing? |
Points that can easily cause trouble in making decisions
The black swan theory doesn't only stumble when you don't have enough knowledge. In fact, there are situations where we interpret something conveniently because we know a little bit about it.
- Record your anxiety and sense of relief when you see the black swan theory
- Write down the same number of reasons why you want to buy and reasons why you don't.
- Wait a day before making decisions after unrealized losses or sudden rises.
- Reduce trading amounts on days when emotions are strong
The important thing here is not to settle on a single correct answer based solely on the black swan theory. In investment, the meaning of the same material changes depending on the market, holding period, and amount of funds. When in doubt, prioritize confirmation over conclusion.
Checklist before buying and selling
Before using the black swan theory as a basis for actual judgment, please check at least these five points.
- Can you explain in one sentence the purpose of looking at the black swan theory?
- Have you confirmed one or more countermeasures or failure conditions?
- Are you investing your living funds or money that will be used soon?
- Have you decided in advance the criteria for cutting losses, taking profits, and continuing to hold stocks?
- Are you making judgments based only on social media or short headlines?
Checklists are simple, but they prevent you from adding reasons after making a decision. The purpose of confirming the black swan theory is not to act faster, but to reduce unnecessary errors in judgment.
Summary
The black swan theory is a material for organizing investment decisions. Even if you read it as an investment psychology, if you treat it as a standalone buy or sell signal, your judgment will be inaccurate.
The points to keep in mind are as follows.
- Decide first the purpose of looking at the black swan theory
- Do not mix time axis and amount of funds
- Check not only good materials but also negative materials
- When using NISA and long-term funds, consider how to handle losses
- When in doubt, reduce your position or postpone it.
The more knowledge you have, the safer it seems, but in the market it can become dangerous if you use it incorrectly. It is realistic to treat the black swan theory as a tool to pause before buying or selling, rather than as a word to rush into judgment.