[Summary]
The exchange system is a system in which the exchange ratio between currencies changes.
The advantage of the exchange system is that it does not guarantee profits, but that it makes it easier to organize the materials you need to look at.
In actual investment, the starting point is to look at the impact of overseas investment and import/export companies. However, it is important to note that it is easy to judge whether a weak yen or a strong yen is good or bad based on one direction.
In this article, we will organize the mechanism of foreign exchange not as "knowledge" but as steps to check before buying or selling. Don't rush to conclusions, read according to your financial amount and time horizon.
First, we need to differentiate based on the exchange mechanism.
When looking at the exchange system, first determine what you want to judge. The information you need will change depending on whether you want to know the meaning, confirm before buying or selling, or review your current holdings.
Especially for beginners in investing, the easier the words are, the more they tend to take them as a conclusion. The exchange system is not the only factor in making a decision. If you want to check it, it is more realistic to look at it in conjunction with fund management, holding period, and opposing materials.
Don't be overconfident in the merits of the exchange system
If you look at the exchange system as an advantage, first of all, make a narrow premise. It is important not to mix up whether you are talking about the market as a whole, individual stocks, NISA or long-term funds.
Checking the following points will make things a lot easier.
| Axis to check | What to see in the exchange system |
|---|---|
| purpose | What do you use to judge? |
| Time axis | Which is closer to short-term trading, long-term holding, or NISA? |
| basis | Which one is more important: price, business performance, interest rates, exchange rates, or psychology? |
| risk | When things go the other way, where should you look again? |
| action | Will it lead to buying, selling, or doing nothing? |
Points that can easily cause trouble in making decisions
The problem with the exchange system is not only when you lack knowledge. In fact, there are situations where we interpret something conveniently because we know a little bit about it.
- Decide first what will be visible in the exchange system
- Differentiate between conditions that bring about benefits and conditions that do not.
- When expectations are too high, test with a small amount
- Write down the terms of withdrawal before considering profits.
The important thing here is not to settle on a single correct answer based solely on the exchange mechanism. In investment, the meaning of the same material changes depending on the market, holding period, and amount of funds. When in doubt, prioritize confirmation over conclusion.
Checklist before buying and selling
Before using the exchange system as a basis for making an actual decision, check at least these five things.
- Can you explain in one sentence the purpose of looking at the exchange system?
- Have you confirmed one or more countermeasures or failure conditions?
- Are you investing your living funds or money that will be used soon?
- Have you decided in advance the criteria for cutting losses, taking profits, and continuing to hold stocks?
- Are you making judgments based only on social media or short headlines?
Checklists are simple, but they prevent you from adding reasons after making a decision. The purpose of checking the exchange system is not to act faster, but to reduce unnecessary mistakes in judgment.
Summary
The exchange system is a material for organizing investment decisions. Even if you read it as an advantage, treating it as a stand-alone buy/sell signal will make your judgment difficult.
The points to keep in mind are as follows.
- Decide first the purpose of looking at the exchange system
- Do not mix time axis and amount of funds
- Check not only good materials but also negative materials
- When using NISA and long-term funds, consider how to handle losses
- When in doubt, reduce your position or postpone it.
The more knowledge you have, the safer it seems, but in the market it can become dangerous if you use it incorrectly. It is realistic to treat the exchange system as a tool to pause before buying or selling, rather than as a word that forces you to make a hasty decision.