[Summary]
A black swan is an event that is difficult to predict and has a large impact.
What is most likely to fail during a black swan is not the lack of knowledge itself, but the fact that one hastily made a decision and then justifies it afterwards.
When it comes to actual investment, the starting point is to prepare for the unexpected and have extra capacity. However, you need to be careful that you can easily get tired of trying to predict everything.
In this article, we will organize black swans not as "knowledge" but as steps to check before buying or selling. Don't rush to conclusions, read according to your financial amount and time horizon.
What to do first with black swans
When watching Black Swan, first decide what you want to judge. The information you need will change depending on whether you want to know the meaning, confirm before buying or selling, or review your current holdings.
Especially for beginners in investing, the easier the words are, the more they tend to take them as a conclusion. Black swans are not the only factors that can be used to make decisions. If you want to check it, it is more realistic to look at it in conjunction with fund management, holding period, and opposing materials.
Situations where black swans are likely to fail
If we look at black swans as a pattern of failure, we first need to make narrow assumptions. It is important not to mix up whether you are talking about the market as a whole, individual stocks, NISA or long-term funds.
Checking the following points will make things a lot easier.
| Axis to check | What to see at Black Swan |
|---|---|
| purpose | What do you use to judge? |
| Time axis | Which is closer to short-term trading, long-term holding, or NISA? |
| basis | Which one is more important: price, business performance, interest rates, exchange rates, or psychology? |
| risk | When things go the other way, where should you look again? |
| action | Will it lead to buying, selling, or doing nothing? |
Points that can easily cause trouble in making decisions
When it comes to black swans, it's not just lack of knowledge that stumbles. In fact, there are situations where we interpret something conveniently because we know a little bit about it.
- Don't decide whether to buy or sell the moment you see a black swan.
- Do not mix the time frame that suits black swans with your own holding period.
- Don't increase your position to recoup your losses
- Don't make a decision just based on SNS or rankings.
The important thing here is not to settle on a single correct answer based solely on black swans. In investment, the meaning of the same material changes depending on the market, holding period, and amount of funds. When in doubt, prioritize confirmation over conclusion.
Checklist before buying and selling
Before using Black Swan as a basis for making an actual decision, check at least these five things.
- Can you explain in one sentence the purpose of watching Black Swan?
- Have you confirmed one or more countermeasures or failure conditions?
- Are you investing your living funds or money that will be used soon?
- Have you decided in advance the criteria for cutting losses, taking profits, and continuing to hold stocks?
- Are you making judgments based only on social media or short headlines?
Checklists are simple, but they prevent you from adding reasons after making a decision. The purpose of confirming black swans is not to act faster, but to reduce unnecessary errors in judgment.
Summary
Black swans are a material for organizing investment decisions. Even if you read it as a failure pattern, treating it as a standalone buy/sell signal will lead to poor judgment.
The points to keep in mind are as follows.
- Decide your purpose for viewing the Black Swan first.
- Do not mix time axis and amount of funds
- Check not only good materials but also negative materials
- When using NISA and long-term funds, consider how to handle losses
- When in doubt, reduce your position or postpone it.
The more knowledge you have, the safer it seems, but in the market it can become dangerous if you use it incorrectly. It is realistic to treat black swans as a tool to pause before buying or selling, rather than as a word to rush into judgment.