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Interest rates include short-term interest rates and long-term interest rates.
The short-term interest rate is easy to influence the policy of the central bank, and the long-term interest rate is easy to understand the economic and inflation expectations.
Understanding this difference
- Why does the stock price move?
- Why the bond price falls
- Signs of recession
can be seen easily.
What is interest rate?
Interest rate is the cost of borrowing money.
For example, if you borrow money from a bank, you will pay interest in addition to the original.
This interest rate is the interest rate.
Interest rate affects not only personal loans, but also corporate financing, national bonds, stock prices and exchanges.
In the investment, the market looks quite different simply by looking at "金利ich interest rate will move".
What is a short-term interest rate?
Short-term interest rates are generally less than a year.
Mainly influence the financial policy of Central Bank.
In Japan, the Bank of Japan adjusts policy interest rates and greatly affects short-term interest rates.
In the United States, FRB’s policy interest rate affects the direction of short-term interest rates.
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Short-term interest rates indicate whether the central bank warms or cools the economy.
Why short-term interest rate is important?
When the short-term interest rate rises, the borrowing cost increases.
As a result,
- More m gage burden
- Increased corporate borrowing costs
- Easy to consume and invest
- Easy to reduce
This is the effect.
In other words, the rise of short-term interest rate has the power to cool the economy.
On the other hand, short-term interest rates may be required to suppress inflation.
What is long-term interest rate?
Long-term interest rates are generally more than a year.
The most common example of investment news is the 10-year-old debt yield.
Long-term interest rate
- 景気予想
- Inflation
- Demand and Demand
- Finance
- Overseas
It ctuates with etc.
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Long-term interest rate is an interest rate that reflects how the market is looking for future economics and inflation.
What happens when the long-term interest rate rises?
When the long-term interest rate rises, the financial market has different effects.
| Property | Impact |
|---|---|
| Shares | The discount rate of future profit increases, and the sense of allocation is easy |
| Bonds | The price of existing bonds is lower |
| Real Estate | Increased borrowing cost, making investments easier |
| 為替 | Currency is easy to move through interest rate difference |
In particular, Gloss and High-Tech stocks tend to be more prone to long-term interest rates because the stock price is easily formed in future profit expectations.
Why does the bond price fall?
When the interest rate rises, the attractiveness of existing bonds decreases.
For example:
- Old Bonds: Yield 1%
- New Bonds: Yield 3%
New bonds are more attractive.
Therefore, you need to lower the price to sell old bonds.
In other words, the interest rate and the bond price basically move in reverse direction.
Interest rate rise → Bond price drop
Interest drop → Bond price riseIt is the basic that you want to learn first with bond investment.
What is ?
The Yield Curve is an interest rate curve arranged from short-term interest rates to long-term interest rates.
Normally, long term is higher interest rate than short term.
This is called "Earde".
However, the more you lend money for a long period,
- Inflation
- Scenic Risks
- Credit risk
to accept more.
What is reverse ルド?
The reverse ルド is a condition that the short-term interest rate exceeds the long-term interest rate.
つまり、
Short-term interest rate > Long-term interest rateという状態です。
In a simple image, it becomes the interest rate curve of the lower right.
y = -0.3x + 4This means that the longer the period, the lower the interest rate.
Why is the reverse ルド?
The reverse eld is known for its ease of occurrence before the recession.
However, because the market is likely to exist as follows:
Now the central bank has a high interest rate, but in the future it may be gained by a scenic deterioration.
In other words, even if the short-term interest rate remains high, long-term interest rates may begin to weave future economic deterioration and interest.
Home
- Before the bubble collapse
- Before Lehman shock
- In front of the U.S. recession
The reverse ルド was attracted.
However, the stock price is not 、d immediately because it became the reverse ルド.
There are many time lags until the recession.
For beginners
It is enough to remember the following.
| Contact | 見方 |
|---|---|
| Short-term interest rate rise | Central Bank Finance |
| Long-term interest rate rise | Inflation expectations and growth expectations |
| Long-term interest rate decline | Scenic Reduction Concerns and Safety Assets |
| reverse | Future re ement alerts |
Even with this, it is quite easy to understand interest rate news.
Where to see in stock investment?
In stock investment, you need to see both long-term and short-term interest rates.
Short-term interest rate
Short-term interest rate is a material that sees the posture of the central bank.
In terms of interest, the company’s borrowing cost increases and the consumption becomes easier.
Long-term interest rate
Long-term interest rates reflect stock valuation.
In particular, the high PER Glow stock makes it easier to evaluate if the long-term interest rate rises.
Banks have exceptions
Interest rate rise is likely to be inverted to the entire stock, while banks may be winding.
It is to increase the interest rate and improve profit.
Common misunderstandings
| misunderstanding | In fact |
|---|---|
| Interest rate rises all bad | Bank stock may be a windbreak |
| Long-term interest rate only | Relationship with short-term interest rate is important |
| Inverted by reverse ルド | There is a time lag until the recession |
| Bonds are always safe | There is a risk of price drop by interest rate rise |
| The market is determined only with policy interest rate | Long-term interest rates and expected inflation are also important |
- Short-term interest rate is high influence of the central bank
- Long-term interest rate is easy to measure economic and inflation expectations
- Income prices are lower due to interest rate rise
- The reverse eld is famous as a recessive signal
- Interest rate is important in stock investment
- Different influences depending on the industry, such as banks and growth strains
First of all, it is important to determine the habit of thinking about the economic and market impact when the "long-term interest rate" and "policy interest rate" appear in the news.