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"Sold too much" is a condition that the sales will be concentrated in a short time and the stock price may be lower than the actual power of the business.
However, this is difficult.
All stocks under are not sold too much.
If business performance deterioration, deduction, deficit fall, financial anxiety, and structural competitiveness fall, it is not just a discount, but a “decrease where you can still sell”.
When determining too much sold, it is safe to decide only one indicator.
The following four main points are:
- Technical indicators
- 出来高と需給
- Changes in Financial Results
- Occupational Materials
In this article, we will organize signs that are sold too much by stock, points you want to check before buying Nanpin, judgment mistakes that beginners want to avoid.
What is too much sold?
Oversold is a condition that the sales order is concentrated in a short time and the stock price is lowered.
In the market, we sell not only calm but also emotionally.
- Disappointment
- Excessive reaction to bad materials
- Sell credit transactions
- Mechanical sales of institutional investors
- Total Risk Avoidance
If such sales are overlapping, the stock price may decrease at once.
There is a case where it is too sold in a short period and it is easy to repel.
However, there is a possibility that corporate value is actually lowered by simply looking too much sold.
It is important to identify here.
Typical Oversold Signs
First of all, it is a whole image.
| Sign | 見方 |
|---|---|
| RSI 30 or less | It is easy to see that it is sold too quickly |
| Moving Average Line | 25 days and 75 days |
| High speed and large lane | Possibility of throwing |
| Reduced after a rapid increase | The possibility of selling |
| PER/PBR | A sense of security on the valuation surface |
| Inc ing dividend yield | Yield is higher in stock price |
| Reduced credit purchase | The weight of supply and demand becomes lighter |
| No lowering after bad material | Possibility of weaving |
It is dangerous to judge one by one in this.
Even if RSI is less than 30 years old, it will be lower than usual if business results are broken.
Even if PBR is low, the market will not be evaluated if there is no profit.
When you see too much sold, check not only for the chart, but also for the reason sold.
RSI 30
RSI is a technical indicator to see the rise and fall of stock price.
In general, you can see:
| RSI | General view |
|---|---|
| Over 70 | Buy too much |
| Around 50 | Close |
| 30 or less | Sold Too |
If RSI falls below 30, it is easy to judge that selling is strong in a short time.
However, RSI is not universal.
In strong downward trend, RSI may keep lowering to 30 or less.
In other words, RSI 30 or less is not a "buy sign", but it is a good level to see it as an anti-existence candidate.
This difference is quite large.
See the lower dev from the moving average line
It is possible that the stock price is sold too quickly if it is largely left down from the moving average line.
The following lines are commonly used:
- 25 Day Moving Average Line
- 75 Day Moving Average Line
- 200 Day Moving Average Line
For example, short-term sales may be quite strong if you are away from the 25-day line.
However, there are two types of discrepancy.
| Types of discrepancy | 見方 |
|---|---|
| T Throwing | It is easy to repel |
| Deterioration due to business performance | It is difficult to return even if it is diverged |
The subordinate is dangerous only with simple counter s.
Find out why you’re away from a moving average line rather than buying it.
The sales volume is a sign of "sold"
The volume is pretty strong.
If the stock price is large, and the volume is increased at the same time, it may be sold.
For example:
- Large sales after announcement of financial results
- A large-needed wire is emitted by a bad material
- Overlapping credit purchases
- Anx spread through SNS and news
It is painful in a short term.
However, if the person who wants to sell is sold off at once, it may be lowered.
In the market, we may see this as "throwed" and "sold"
However, it is not possible to worry only by the rapid increase of production.
If the sales of the large mouth is still left, it may be lowered with the volume.
When the material is not lower
This is an unexpected sign that is too sold.
Even if the material is bad, the stock price will not decrease.
This could be the market weaving of bad materials considerably.
For example:
- The lower width was small, but the lower
- No less than the next day
- Even if a bad news comes out, it won’t be discounted
- Lowering after increased production
In this case, the market has already been quite suspicious.
Even if the content is bad, the stock price may be offensive.
This is a story of the market.
The stock price is not only the fact, but also the difference with the expectation.
View Valuation
When you see whether it is sold too much, check PER and PBR.
| 指標 | 見方 |
|---|---|
| PER | Is the stock price higher or cheaper for profit? |
| PBR | Is the stock price higher or cheaper for net assets? |
| idend | idends for share price |
If you sell to the lower limit of the previous PER range or PBR range, you may have a sense of security on the valuation surface.
There is a 、 here.
The low PER may be because the market is affected when the next year profit falls.
Low PBR may be due to poor capital efficiency and low ROE.
The high dividend yield may be because the risk of deduction is woven.
Low PER, low PBR, and high dividends can be sold too quickly.
There are cheap reasons for the price.
Is credit residue reduced?
There are many individual investors, so you can see the remaining credits.
Brands with high credit residues have the future selling pressure.
If the stock price falls, the investor who purchased the credit may be caught up in the loss.
More stock prices will be reduced.
In order to make it easier to repel from being sold too much, it is better to organize this credit residue.
| 信用需給 | 見方 |
|---|---|
| There are many credits | Easy to use |
| Reduced credit purchase | Lighter sales pressure |
| Increased production capacity and increased arrangement | Possibility of supply and demand improvement |
When you see the weight of the supply and demand in addition to the chart, you can see the quality of the reaction.
Example of "bad drop" rather than sold too much
This is quite important.
The following drops may be sold in review of corporate value rather than being sold too much.
- Business results
- Subtracted
- Reduced/Un配ed
- Sales cash flow is worse
- Low capital ratio
- Heavy borrowing burden
- The competitiveness of the main business
- Structurally market is shrinking
In this case, it is not possible to return immediately even if the stock price is large.
However, it is dangerous to think "cheap" based on the stock price level of the past.
If the company's profit level itself changes, the reason for returning to the previous stock price is also weak.
You can check whether it is sold too much or not in your business.
The order to see before buying Nanpin
I want to check in the following order before buying Nampin.
- What's Down
- Is performance deterioration temporary or structural?
- Are there any financial problems?
- Can dividends be maintained?
- Is it too heavy to buy credit?
- Is it possible to sell one by one?
- Is the stock price no longer updated?
Especially, the first "Why did you fall?" is important.
If you do not know the reason, it will be just picking up the fallen stock.
Namping is a way to lower the average acquisition unit price.
However, if the company value is low, it can only increase loss.
Signs to confirm relapse
There are several changes when going to the counterpart from being sold too much.
| Sign | 見方 |
|---|---|
| No renewables | Low selling pressure |
| A yang line comes out with a high level | Possibility of getting started |
| Don’t fall in bad materials | Possibility of weaving |
| Recover 25 days | Short-term trend improvement |
| Improve response after financial results | Market view begins to change |
It is difficult to apply the bottom value perfectly.
It is dangerous to apply the bottom too much.
If you are trying to sell too much, it is easier to put "check down" to reduce failure.
Easy to misunderstand for beginners
| misunderstanding | In fact |
|---|---|
| RSI 30 or less | There is a possibility that the lower trend will fall further |
| cheaper than big down | There is a possibility that it is not cheap if the performance is also down |
| High dividends | If there is a risk of deduction, the yield is applied |
| Help if you ピン | If the reason for fall is not solved, the loss is increased |
| The bottom if it is possible to increase | Sales may continue |
Too much is the idea of searching for rebellion candidates.
It is not a sign that guarantees the purchase.
Practical checklist
If you look at it, you can use the following checks:
1. Is RSI reduced to around 30?
2. 25 days or 75 days
3. Is it possible to sell with a high volume?
4. Is it possible to update the price after a bad material?
5. PER・PBR
6. Is there a possibility of maintaining dividends?
7. Does the operating income and business CF have been broken?
8. Is credit residue organized?
9. Is it sold too much from other companies?
10. Do you decide the withdrawal line after Namping?In addition to technical, it is important to include performance and cash flow.
Even if the stock price is too high, if the company's contents are worse, the rebound is weak.
If you see too much stock sold, you can't get enough of RSI or moving average line.
We look at the interwovens of technical, high-quality, supply and demand, performance, financial, and bad materials.
In particular, when thinking about buying Nanpin, we will check the reason for the downward.
The difference is the following.
Oversold = Oversold temporarily
Bad drops = corporate value itself goes downIf the two are conf。, it is easy to expand the negative loss.
If you aim to sell too much, you want to check that there is no fatal deterioration in performance and financial results.
You can see whether the sales started to stop rather than going to the bottom.
It is easy to use for real investment.