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There is a part of the right place in the view that “the data in the past is害ous and won’t be profitable.” It is because it is quite dangerous if you try to apply the future just by moving the past.
However, it is not possible to discard past data.
The most important thing is to use past data as a risk management tool rather than a future prediction tool. How long was it to recover and how much time was it? Just know it, the difference of investment decisions is quite reduced.
First Con まず
It is dangerous to decide the future only by past data.
However, investments that do not see past data are also dangerous.
The two are similar and completely different.
People who believe in the past data tend to think like this.
This time, it's okay because it's done well in the past.
This is dangerous.
However, even if you look at the past data, it will be another pitfall.
How long have you been down? How many years did you come back? How did investors sell?
If you invest without knowing this, your expectation will break at once when the fall comes.
The past data is not a crystal ball that applies the future.
It is a map to know dangerous places.
“The past does not guarantee the future”
A common failure in investment is to believe in past success patterns.
The market environment always changes.
| Changes | Impact on Investment |
|---|---|
| Tag | Reco tion of shares, bonds and real estate |
| 景気 | Changes in corporate performance and credit risk |
| Technology Innovation | Winning companies and losing companies |
| Policy | Changes in the flow of funds by taxation, subsidy and regulation |
| Geopoli Risks | Forex, resource prices and supply chains |
Even in the same investment method, the results will change in the era when the interest rate is low.
Even in the same growth stock, evaluation changes in the time when the financing is simple and the future profit is利益d by the rise of interest rate.
So,
- Previous Win Rate
- Past Rise
- Past Success Experience
- Previous chart shape
It is dangerous to extend to the future.
"It was a long time ago" is a judgment material.
No answer.
Why past data is still important
So why do pro investors see past data?
Simple.
To understand the danger, not to apply the future.
It’s not just how much money it’s really important to invest.
How much loss can be avoided?
This is quite useful.
You can see the following:
| Check | 意味 |
|---|---|
| Maximum drop rate | What losses can you withstand? |
| Recovery period | How many years do I need to make money sleep? |
| Movements in the crash | Is the dispersion really effective? |
| Interest rate | How stocks and bonds react |
| After bubble collapse | How much is the fear of high value |
This is not a future forecast.
It is a work to know the。 that can happen.
It is dangerous to see only good scenarios in investment. It is necessary to look at a bad scenario and keep it in a design that can continue.
Human life repeatedly
The market is not moving by numbers.
In fact, human s have a significant impact.
The common flow of the market is similar even if the times change.
| Market Status | Investor Relations |
|---|---|
| Early rise | 半信半疑 |
| Close | 楽観・熱狂 |
| High value | Delayed anxiety |
| Start | まだ |
| 暴落 | Fear / Throw |
| Base value | Indigenous |
Brand names and vary.
IT Bubbles, Resource Booms, Crypto Assets, AI, Semiconductors, Real Estate The main role is replaced.
However, human life is surprisingly repeated.
When you are up, I think that it will rise more.
I feel that I don't go back when I'm down.
So, past crashes and bubbles are still helpful. Not to memorize the shape of the chart. It is to know that you can enjoy the same way.
Easy to misunderstand for beginners
Beginners tend to think of past analysis as future forecasts.
Actually different.
How to use
- Risks
- Know the scenes that are easy to break
- Check your resistance
- Understand the reasons to divide funds
- Pre-determining behavior at the time of fall
H dous Usage
- I think this method is absolute
- Make sure to return immediately after the crash
- I think it is safe because it is AI analysis
- Increase your investment with backtest results
- Thinking to always update the highest value in the past
Especially recently, it is an environment that is easy to oversee AI and back test.
Back test is convenient. Easy to use
However, we basically use past data.
There is a weak aspect of crisis, system change, war, credibility anxiety, and liquidity.
It is better to think a little more about the number.
How to use in practice
It is recommended to use past data as a map.
Even if there is a map, I can not see the weather tomorrow.
However,
- Where there is a cliff
- Easy to understand place
- Low water
- Safe roads even in the distance
は分かります。
Same investment.
The role of past data is not to break down the future.
It is to increase the probability of survival.
Figure: Correct usage of past data
Previous data for beginners to see first
There is no need to make difficult analysis from the beginning.
The following three are sufficient.
| Data | Reasons to See |
|---|---|
| Past 落s | Check whether you can bear |
| Duration to recovery | Long-term investment |
| Value movement per asset | Separate the role of shares, bonds and cash |
For example, the investment of 100% of the shares looks strong on the rise.
However, if you can't withstand when you see a big drop, you can't continue.
The most important thing in investment is the design that you can continue from theore optimal solution.
The past data is used to make the design.
It is dangerous to break down the future only in the past.
However, it is dangerous to learn anything from the past.
We do not guarantee the future.
Still, the maximum drop rate, recovery period, rampage, and value movement per asset are important information for investors.
In investment, it is more effective than prediction.
It is used as a map to survive rather than a tool to apply past data.
Investment decisions are quite calm just by having this feeling.
Reference
- Investor.gov, Risk
- Date: 2026-05-26