[Summary] (Reading time approximately 5 minutes)
The AI market is not collapsing, but is moving into a "selection phase." Due to the slowdown in OpenAI's growth, AI-related investments have shifted to focus on profitability. Under these circumstances, Lasertec maintains room for medium- to long-term growth as an inspection equipment company essential for cutting-edge semiconductor manufacturing, rather than an AI application company. On the other hand, current business results are flat, and stock prices are already pricing in future recovery. The focus going forward is on order recovery and the capital investment cycle. It is positioned as highly volatile in the short term and promising in the long term, making it realistic to use it as a satellite investment.
Introduction: AI market has entered the “next stage”
AI stocks are clearly at a tipping point.
The market so far has been
=> “AI will grow” => “That’s why related stocks will go up.”
It was a very simple structure.
But now it's different.
=> Is it profitable => Will I be able to recover my investment
This perspective is beginning to be strongly recognized.
In other words, now
Expected advance market price → Actual demand confirmation market price
It is a transition phase.
The essence of OpenAI growth slowdown
The point this time is simple.
The problem isn't OpenAI's performance.
=> This is the very structure of AI business.
The generation AI
- Extremely high computational cost
- Huge infrastructure investment
- It takes time to turn a profit
It has the following characteristics.
Therefore, the market
- Is GPU investment excessive?
- Are data centers being built too much? *Will semiconductor demand continue?
I'm starting to have doubts.
However, “AI demand has not collapsed”
This is important.
The AI boom is far from over.
Rather, what is happening is
=> Screening
It is.
In fact,
*TSMC
- ASML
continue to maintain a bullish investment stance.
In other words,
=> The era when “AI can improve anything” is over => Towards a phase where “funds remain in the areas where they are needed”
This is the current market.
Lasertech position
Lasertech is
=> Not an AI company
However,
=> Companies essential to making AI semiconductors
It is.
Especially the strengths are
- EUV mask inspection equipment
- Inspection for advanced processes
It is.
As semiconductors become smaller,
=> Inspection becomes more important
There is a structure.
This is extremely important.
=> Business becomes more necessary as technology advances
That's why.
Evaluation of latest financial results (important points)
The main points of the latest financial results are simple.
*Sales: Almost flat *Operating income: Slight decrease *Net profit: Increase
What you can read from here
=> Demand has not fully recovered yet => However, profitability is maintained
This is the situation.
More importantly,
=> Growth in service sales
It is.
This is
- Expansion of stock-type earnings
- Stabilization of profits
means.
Towards a structure that does not depend on short-term equipment sales,
It's progressing little by little.
What is included in stock prices?
This is the core of investment decisions.
The current stock price is
=> Already starting to factor in recovery in 2027
It is thought that.
In other words,
- Good news → hard to rise
- Bad news → easy to fall
This is the situation.
so-called
=> Expected advance phase
It is.
Future checkpoints (super important)
Investment decisions boil down to these three things.
- Will orders recover?
- Will service sales continue to grow?
- Will semiconductor investment (especially TSMC) be maintained?
If this doesn't collapse,
The story continues.
6 Month Outlook
The short term is pretty clear.
=> There is room to rise, but the price movement is rough
Reason:
*Influenced by overall AI-related sentiment
- Expectations are already high
Assumption:
- Good results → Try the top price
- Expectations not met → Immediate adjustments
1 Year Outlook
There is one focus.
=> Recovery of orders → Will it lead to growth in 2027
If you can confirm this,
=> Re-evaluation
will be done.
On the contrary,
=> Orders remain weak
Then,
=> Valuation adjustment
There is a possibility that
Investment scenario
Bullish (35%)
- Demand for AI semiconductors continues
- Orders clearly recovered
=> Stock price: Try to update high price
Basic (45%)
- Performance is stable
- Recovery is gradual
=> Stock prices: Struggling in the high price range
Bearish (20%)
- Doubts about AI investment
- Slowdown in capital investment
=> Stock price: 20-30% adjustment
Investment risk
Profitability issues of AI investment
→ Assumptions about semiconductor demand are shaken
Delay in order recovery
→ Advance expectations for stock prices have dissipated
Discrepancy in acceptance inspection timing
→ Discrepancies in short-term performance
Exchange
→ Impact on profits
High valuation
→ Widening decline when expectations decline
Investment decisions: How should you approach them?
The conclusion is simple.
Lasertech is
=> Promising in the long term => Short term is difficult
It's a brand.
Therefore,
=> than having it in the core => It is more reasonable to use it as a satellite
It is.
Summary
- AI market is not collapsing, but is sorting out
- Lasertec is an important company on the infrastructure side
- Business results are solid, but recovery is on the way
- Stock prices have already factored in expectations.
And importantly,
=> Right now, it's not a case of being bullish, but a situation where we need to assess the situation
That's what it means.