Introduction: AI market has entered the “next stage”
AI stocks are clearly at a tipping point.
The market so far has been
=> “AI will grow” => “That’s why related stocks will go up.”
It was a very simple structure.
But now it's different.
=> Is it profitable => Will I be able to recover my investment
This perspective is beginning to be strongly recognized.
In other words, now
Expected advance market price → Actual demand confirmation market price
It is a transition phase.
The essence of OpenAI growth slowdown
The point this time is simple.
The problem isn't OpenAI's performance.
=> This is the very structure of AI business.
The generation AI
- Extremely high computational cost
- Huge infrastructure investment
- It takes time to turn a profit
It has the following characteristics.
Therefore, the market
- Is GPU investment excessive?
- Are data centers being built too much? *Will semiconductor demand continue?
I'm starting to have doubts.
However, “AI demand has not collapsed”
This is important.
The AI boom is far from over.
Rather, what is happening is
=> Screening
It is.
In fact,
*TSMC
- ASML
continue to maintain a bullish investment stance.
In other words,
=> The era when “AI can improve anything” is over => Towards a phase where “funds remain in the areas where they are needed”
This is the current market.
Lasertech position
Lasertech is
=> Not an AI company
However,
=> Companies essential to making AI semiconductors
It is.
Especially the strengths are
- EUV mask inspection equipment
- Inspection for advanced processes
It is.
As semiconductors become smaller,
=> Inspection becomes more important
There is a structure.
This is extremely important.
=> Business becomes more necessary as technology advances
That's why.
Evaluation of latest financial results (important points)
The main points of the latest financial results are simple.
*Sales: Almost flat *Operating income: Slight decrease *Net profit: Increase
What you can read from here
=> Demand has not fully recovered yet => However, profitability is maintained
This is the situation.
More importantly,
=> Growth in service sales
It is.
This is
- Expansion of stock-type earnings
- Stabilization of profits
means.
Towards a structure that does not depend on short-term equipment sales,
It's progressing little by little.
What is included in stock prices?
This is the core of investment decisions.
The current stock price is
=> Already starting to factor in recovery in 2027
It is thought that.
In other words,
- Good news → hard to rise
- Bad news → easy to fall
This is the situation.
so-called
=> Expected advance phase
It is.
Future checkpoints (super important)
Investment decisions boil down to these three things.
- Will orders recover?
- Will service sales continue to grow?
- Will semiconductor investment (especially TSMC) be maintained?
If this doesn't collapse,
The story continues.
6 Month Outlook
The short term is pretty clear.
=> There is room to rise, but the price movement is rough
Reason:
*Influenced by overall AI-related sentiment
- Expectations are already high
Assumption:
- Good results → Try the top price
- Expectations not met → Immediate adjustments
1 Year Outlook
There is one focus.
=> Recovery of orders → Will it lead to growth in 2027
If you can confirm this,
=> Re-evaluation
will be done.
On the contrary,
=> Orders remain weak
Then,
=> Valuation adjustment
There is a possibility that
Investment scenario
Bullish (35%)
- Demand for AI semiconductors continues
- Orders clearly recovered
=> Stock price: Try to update high price
Basic (45%)
- Performance is stable
- Recovery is gradual
=> Stock prices: Struggling in the high price range
Bearish (20%)
- Doubts about AI investment
- Slowdown in capital investment
=> Stock price: 20-30% adjustment
Investment risk
Profitability issues of AI investment
→ Assumptions about semiconductor demand are shaken
Delay in order recovery
→ Advance expectations for stock prices have dissipated
Discrepancy in acceptance inspection timing
→ Discrepancies in short-term performance
Exchange
→ Impact on profits
High valuation
→ Widening decline when expectations decline
Investment decisions: How should you approach them?
The conclusion is simple.
Lasertech is
=> Promising in the long term => Short term is difficult
It's a brand.
Therefore,
=> than having it in the core => It is more reasonable to use it as a satellite
It is.
Summary
- AI market is not collapsing, but is sorting out
- Lasertec is an important company on the infrastructure side
- Business results are solid, but recovery is on the way
- Stock prices have already factored in expectations.
And importantly,
=> Right now, it's not a case of being bullish, but a situation where we need to assess the situation
That's what it means.