[Summary] (Reading time approximately 6 minutes)
In April 2026, the Japanese market experienced a triple depreciation of the yen, stocks, and bonds, and the conventional assumptions of low interest rates and deflation began to crumble. The background is high crude oil prices due to the situation in the Middle East and fluctuations in policy confidence due to the Bank of Japan's decision not to raise interest rates. Long-term interest rates have risen to over 2.5%, equity discount rates have risen, and there is clear downward pressure on valuations. Domestic companies are facing tough conditions due to increased costs and slowing demand, and sectors that are resistant to inflation, such as banks and trading companies, have an advantage. The market has shifted from a "general rise" to a "selective market." Investment decisions are a little cautious, but there are opportunities as this is an early stage of structural change.
Introduction
Currently, Japanese stocks are not simply declining.
Assumptions are starting to change.
The triple low in April 2026 is It was an event that symbolized that change.
From here on, it's not about "how it works", but The phase of understanding “what has changed”.
Current market environment: Meaning of triple decline
What is happening at your feet is the following simultaneous progress.
160 yen 2.5% / 10 Key point
This is not your typical risk-off.
Japan-specific issues × external shocks
A complex composition.
What is especially important is
→ “Stocks are falling even though interest rates are rising”
This combination.
This is a sign that the assumptions of the evaluation model are broken.
Background ①: Energy shock
Due to the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East
Key point Key point
occurred.
It was a direct hit for Japan.
because
Because it is a country dependent on energy imports
as a result
Key point→ Increased import costs Key point→ further cost increase
Damage to both corporate profits and consumption.
Background ②: “Bad yen depreciation” has become entrenched
The weak yen has been a tailwind.
But now
Key point Key point Key point
A clear headwind.
In other words
The assumption that yen depreciation = positive collapses
This is a structural change.
Background ③: Bank of Japan's policy stance
April 2026 is an important turning point.
Market expects rate hike → But leave it as is
This result
Key point Key point
Further
Key point: upwardly revised Key point: downward revision
This is
Emerging concerns about stagflation
means.
Structural changes in the stock market
So far: → Market where the entire index increases
From now on: → A market where only selected companies rise
Strong area
Key point Key point Key point
Weak areas
Key point Key point Key point
The point is simple.
Inflation resistance × interest rate resistance
Valuation changes (most important)
This is the basic structure of stock prices.
here
Key point→ rising Key point→ decreasing pressure
This combination is powerful.
→ Stock prices tend to fall
In other words
The high PER that was allowed until now is becomes difficult to maintain.
6 month scenario
Base (50%)
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→ Rise in selection centered on financial/trading companies
Bearish (30%)
Key point Key point 3%
→ Stagflation manifests itself → Widespread decline
Bullish (20%)
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→ Growth/semiconductor rebound
Axis of investment strategy
Now is the time to keep it simple.
5 things you should see.
Key point Key point Key point Key point Key point
Companies that do not meet this
→ Subject to devaluation
Investment risk
Prolonged crude oil prices
→ Simultaneous pressure on businesses and consumption
Delay in policy response
→ Accelerating yen depreciation and interest rate rise
Stagflation
→ The most unfavorable for the stock market
Investment decision
The current Japanese stocks are
Key point: unstable Key point: Early stage of structural change
In other words
There are risks, but there are also opportunities
Conclusion
This triple low is
This is not a temporary disruption
The end of the era of low interest rates and deflation.
From now on
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The market will be dominated by these three.
and
The days when all companies are evaluated are over
From now on
A market where only resilient companies are chosen
It is natural to think that you have entered here.