[Summary]
Our view on ANA Holdings is currently neutral. For the full year ending March 2026, sales were 2,539.2 billion yen, operating income was 217.4 billion yen, and net income attributable to owners of parent was 169 billion yen, all new record highs. Continuing inbound demand, solid domestic leisure demand, and the consolidated contribution of Nippon Cargo Airlines were the main factors pushing up sales. On the other hand, the company's plan for the fiscal year ending March 2027 is that even though sales will increase to 2.77 trillion yen, operating profit is expected to decline to 150 billion yen and net profit to 96 billion yen.The next evaluation axis will be how to absorb increases in fuel costs and expenses.
Business overview
ANA Holdings is one of Japan's largest airline groups, and is a holding company centered on the full-service ANA and LCC Peach, as well as peripheral businesses centered on air transportation.
The main source of revenue is the air transportation business, with segment sales of 2,313.2 billion yen and operating income of 221.9 billion yen for the full year ending March 2026. It accounts for a large proportion of the company's total sales of 2,539.2 billion yen, and is structured so that changes in passenger demand, cargo demand, fuel and personnel costs can easily affect the company's performance.
In addition to air transportation, the company operates aviation-related businesses such as airport ground support and in-flight meals, travel services, trading and retail, and other businesses. However, in terms of profits, there is still a heavy dependence on air transport.
Latest materials (3 months)
On April 30, 2026, ANA Holdings announced its full-year financial results for the fiscal year ending March 2026. Sales, operating income, and net income all reached record highs, and the year-end dividend was raised by 5 yen compared to the previous plan, to 65 yen for the year.
On April 8, 2026, the transportation results for February were disclosed. The number of international passengers was 739,900, an increase of 9.6% compared to the same month last year, and the number of domestic passengers was 3,058,375, an increase of 2.4% compared to the same month last year. On domestic flights, the number of passengers is increasing despite a 1.9% decrease in available seat-kilometers compared to the same month last year, demonstrating the flexibility of supply-demand management.
In terms of the external environment, the number of foreign visitors to Japan in March, announced by the Japan National Tourism Organization on April 15, 2026, was 3,618,900, a new record high for March. Inbound demand continues to support airline passenger demand.
Recent achievements
| Indicators | Contents |
|---|---|
| Sales | 2,539.2 billion yen, 12.3% increase compared to the same period last year |
| Operating income | 217.4 billion yen, 10.6% increase |
| Ordinary profit | 219.6 billion yen, 9.8% increase |
| Net income | 169 billion yen, 10.5% increase |
| Annual dividend | 65 yen, 5 yen increase from the previous plan |
In the core air transportation business, sales were 2,313.2 billion yen, an increase of 12.4% year on year, and operating income was 221.9 billion yen, an increase of 11.5% year on year. In addition to passenger demand on international and domestic routes, the consolidation of Nippon Cargo Airlines was a factor in the increase in revenue.
On the other hand, although sales in the aviation-related business increased to 361.6 billion yen, operating income shrank to 1.4 billion yen. Due to the strong impact of increased expenses such as personnel costs, sales growth is not directly linked to profits. The travel services business had sales of 65.3 billion yen and an operating loss of just under 100 million yen, so even though demand seems to be recovering, profitability is still weak.
Looking at the full-year results alone, the company is doing well, but when looking at the quality of profits, improving profitability in areas other than its mainstay air transportation remains an issue.
What drove the performance?
1. Demand for international flights continued to recover
The company believes that the growth in European routes and the contribution of new routes will be the pillars of its revenue growth for the full year. In the February transport results, the number of international passengers increased by 9.6% compared to the same month last year, and the load factor rose to 85.5%, allowing us to capture both inbound demand and leisure demand originating from Japan.
2. Domestic flights have not collapsed significantly either.
For domestic flights, the airline has adjusted supply and demand by increasing flights during peak periods and using smaller aircraft during off-season periods. In February, the number of passengers increased by 2.4% compared to the same month last year, and the load factor was 81.1%. Since the number of passengers increased while the available seat-kilometers were lower than the previous year, improving operational efficiency is more meaningful than simply increasing the number of passengers.
3. Consolidation of Nippon Cargo Airlines boosted sales
This fiscal year, the addition of Nippon Cargo Airlines' consolidated contribution was a factor in the increase in revenue for the air transport business. Although there is a wave of demand for automobile parts and e-commerce in terms of freight alone, the ability to operate ANA and NCA together will expand options for route and aircraft allocation, which could be a positive factor in the medium term.
4. Costs are definitely increasing
Even with strong demand, upward pressure on fuel and labor costs cannot be ignored. In fact, the company's forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027 is for operating income to decline significantly even though sales will increase, and the company has factored in the impact of rising fuel costs due to the situation in the Middle East. In other words, it is easier to create swings in profits due to cost concerns than demand concerns.
Risk
| Risk | Contents |
|---|---|
| Fuel prices | Fuel prices may rise more than expected depending on the situation in the Middle East |
| Supply and demand | If inbound and domestic leisure demand slows down, the load factor will likely decline |
| Personnel costs | Fixed costs tend to increase due to securing personnel and improving treatment |
| Effects of integration | The effects of Nippon Cargo Airlines' integration and brand reorganization may be lower than expected |
| Profitability of peripheral businesses | Possibility of delays in improving profits in airline-related and travel services |
Future outlook
According to company plans, sales for the fiscal year ending March 2027 are expected to be 2.77 trillion yen, while operating income is expected to be 150 billion yen, ordinary income is 137 billion yen, and net income is expected to be 96 billion yen. Even if sales are expected to reach record highs, profits are expected to decline, and the market is likely to focus less on whether demand is strong and more on how much cost increases can be absorbed.
In the short term, the focus will be on monthly international and domestic transport results, fuel market conditions, and how the situation in the Middle East will settle down. If demand for inbound tourists continues, sales will likely be supported, but in terms of profits, controlling fuel costs and personnel costs will become more important.
In the medium term, evaluation points will be the effects of the integration of Nippon Cargo Airlines, improved profitability from brand reorganization centered on ANA and Peach, and recovery of profitability in peripheral businesses. Although the company's full-year results for the fiscal year ending March 2026 were strong, it is natural to assume that the stock price evaluation axis is already shifting to maintaining profit margins for the next fiscal year.