[Summary]
Stocks related to the heat wave in the summer of 2026 are becoming a theme that is expanding not only to beverages, air conditioning, and retail, but also to electricity supply and demand, energy conservation, and safety measures.
According to the Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast, temperatures are expected to be high nationwide in the summer of 2026. Furthermore, the El Niño monitoring bulletin indicates that there is a high possibility that an El Niño phenomenon will occur in the summer, so it is necessary to reread the weather scenario.
On the other hand, the preliminary margin for August 2026 in the Tokyo area was 0.9% as of October 2025, but the forecast as of March 2026 has improved to 4.1%, taking into account additional supply capacity. Although the electricity crunch theme remains, it is important to note that the numbers will be updated.
What is more important for investors than the heat itself is to identify ``companies where increased demand remains in their profit margins'' and ``the time horizon in which the theme is factored in.''
Stocks related to the heat wave in the summer of 2026 are not just a seasonal theme.
Up until now, the heatwave market has centered around consumption themes such as beverages, air conditioners, drugstores, and consumer electronics retailers. However, in 2026, power supply and demand, power saving, energy conservation, storage batteries, demand response, and occupational safety will all overlap.
It is easier to organize your investment themes by dividing them into the following four areas.
| Area | Representative themes | Points to see |
|---|---|---|
| Beverages and foods | Water, sports drinks, oral rehydration solutions, salt supplements | Sales volume and profit margin after price increase |
| Air conditioning/energy saving | Air conditioners, high efficiency air conditioning, EMS, storage batteries | Power supply and demand and energy saving investment |
| Retail/Clothing | Cool clothing, sunscreen, antiperspirants, heat stroke prevention supplies | Monthly sales and inventory management |
| Construction/Safety | Heat countermeasures, cooling supplies, and safety management at work sites | Expanding compliance support |
However, while heatwave-related stocks are easy to access short-term funds, they also run out of resources quickly. The important time frame is to move forward from May to June, confirm actual demand from July to August, and watch for typhoons, prolonged rain, and monthly stalls from the second half of August onwards.
Weather Scenario
Regarding the summer of 2026, the Ministry of the Environment's administrative communication regarding heatstroke prevention also states that "temperatures will be high nationwide" based on the Japan Meteorological Agency's warm season forecast.
In addition, the Japan Meteorological Agency's El Niño monitoring bulletin (released on April 10, 2026) states that while conditions close to the La Niña phenomenon may have resolved and normal conditions may continue in the spring, there is a high possibility that an El Niño phenomenon will occur in the summer.
What investors should be aware of from this point on is not just the heat wave, but the entire climate change scenario.
- If the high temperature increases in the first half of summer, short-term funds will be easily available for beverages, air conditioning, and heatstroke prevention supplies.
- If typhoons and long rains become stronger in the latter half of summer, monthly sales related to beverages and going out are likely to stall.
- Every time the forecast changes, the sustainability of the theme stocks also changes easily.
In other words, when it comes to stocks related to the heatwave in 2026, we need to look not only at ``will it get hot?'' but also ``when will it be hot?'' and ``which company will it benefit from?''
Electricity supply and demand
This year's feature is that the heatwave theme overlaps with electricity supply and demand.
The Agency for Natural Resources and Energy's electricity supply and demand forecast for 2026 shows the reserve margin for August 2026 in the Tokyo area as a preliminary figure of 0.9% as of October 2025. However, the forecast as of March 2026 takes into account additional supply capacity and the operation plan for Unit 6 of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant, and the reserve margin for August in the Tokyo area is set at 4.1%.
For this reason, looking at the "August reserve margin of 0.9% in the Tokyo area" alone may give an overly harsh view of the current supply and demand outlook.
More precisely, it is natural to organize it as follows.
| Time | Tokyo area August reserve margin | Implications for investment |
|---|---|---|
| Preliminary figures for October 2025 | 0.9% | Strong awareness of electricity shortage theme |
| Outlook for March 2026 | 4.1% | Expected to exceed the minimum 3% with additional supply capacity |
Nevertheless, increased electricity demand during extreme heat waves, energy conservation investments, peak cuts, and demand response remain investment themes for summer 2026.
It is closer to the reality if we expand the related fields to include air conditioning efficiency improvements, EMS, storage batteries, corporate power saving, electricity retailing, and energy saving support, rather than looking at the electric power stocks themselves.
Beverage/Food
The most obvious heat-related stocks are beverages and food.
When temperatures rise, demand for mineral water, sports drinks, oral rehydration solutions, carbonated drinks, and salt-replenishing foods tends to increase.
The following related stocks are likely to be associated with this stock:
| Stock | View |
|---|---|
| 2579 Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan HD | Focus on soft drink volume increase and price revision effects |
| 2587 Suntory Foods International | Brand power and strength of vending machines and mass sales channels |
| 2590 DyDo Group HD | High ratio of vending machines, sensitive to outing demand |
| 2935 Pickles HD | Easily associated with salt supplementation and pickles |
The key point for 2026 is "scorching heat after price increases."
In recent years, beverage companies have been revising prices in response to raw material costs, container prices, logistics costs, and labor costs. Therefore, if sales volume increases, it may be seen as an improvement in profit margins, rather than just an increase in sales.
However, extreme heat does not necessarily mean that profits will remain. For companies with heavy shipping costs, promotional costs, vending machine operating costs, and raw material prices, it may be difficult to convert increased demand into profits.
Air conditioning/energy saving
Air conditioning is an area associated with both intense heat and power shortages.
Representative examples of related brands include 6367 Daikin Industries, 6420 Fukushima Galilei, and 6503 Mitsubishi Electric.
In addition, 6755 Fujitsu General, which is often mentioned as a company related to air conditioning in the past, was delisted in August 2025, and as of 2026, it will not be eligible for direct investment as a listed stock.
What will be important in 2026 is not just "demand for cooling," but "demand for cooling with less electricity."
- High efficiency air conditioning
- Inverter
- Freezing and refrigeration equipment
- Energy saving equipment renewal -EMS
- Storage battery
- Demand response
The tighter the power supply and demand situation appears, the more attention will be paid to investments in energy-saving performance and peak cuts.
On the other hand, major air conditioning companies are greatly affected by overseas economies, foreign exchange rates, housing investment, and capital investment, so it is dangerous to explain stock prices based solely on the intense heat. Short-term seasonal themes and medium-term performance drivers need to be looked at separately.
Retail/Clothing/Drugstore
As the heatwave continues to prolong, cooling products are becoming standard.
In particular, the following products are no longer temporary fads but are becoming daily necessities.
- Cool contact clothing
- Wear with fan
- neck cooler
- sunscreen
- antiperspirant
- Cooling sheet
- Oral rehydration solution
Related stocks include 7564 Workman, 3141 Welcia HD, and 3088 Matsuki Yokokokara & Company.
Workman is a company with a wide range of targets, including construction sites, logistics, outdoor workers, and general consumers, and where the everlasting extreme heat is likely to be a product development theme.
While drugstores have easy access to heat stroke prevention products, sunscreen, antiperspirants, cooling products, and oral rehydration solutions, there is also the risk that customers will not visit the store as often if the temperature is too high.
Again, it's not just sales that you need to look at. I would like to check the gross profit margin, inventory, promotional expenses, and monthly existing store sales as a set.
Construction/Safety Measures
One of the themes of the heat wave in 2026 that is hard to overlook is occupational safety.
The Ministry of the Environment has announced that the heat stroke warning information and heat stroke special warning information for FY2026 will be in operation from April 22, 2026 to October 21, 2026. When a heatstroke special warning alert is announced, administrators of schools, companies, events, etc. are also asked to confirm that they are taking thorough measures to prevent heatstroke.
From this point on, heatstroke prevention is not just a welfare benefit, but also approaches issues such as safety management, industrial accident prevention, human capital management, and ESG.
Related areas include:
| Area | View |
|---|---|
| Cooling supplies for construction and logistics | Demand for safety measures for site workers |
| Wear with fans | Spread to both outdoor work and general consumption |
| Safety management system | WBGT management, work stoppage judgment, monitoring |
| Labor saving/robots | Context for reducing workload in hot weather |
Industrial and field-related stocks like 6224 JRC are stocks that are more likely to be seen in the context of outdoor activities, logistics, and capital investment, rather than the purity of heatstroke prevention itself. 9385 Packaging, sales promotion, and lifestyle-related stocks such as Shoei Corporation may also be associated with theme stocks, but their contribution to performance needs to be confirmed individually.
Names to watch out for as listed stocks
When it comes to heatwave-related stocks, famous stocks from the past are sometimes associated with current investment targets.
Of particular note are Fujitsu General and Enaris.
| Formerly associated stocks | Status |
|---|---|
| 6755 Fujitsu General | Delisting in August 2025 |
| 6079 Enaris | Delisted in March 2019 |
Both companies' business themes are related to air conditioning and electricity, but as of May 2026, they are not publicly traded stocks that can be purchased directly. When looking at a stock as an investment target, you need to check surrounding companies that are currently listed and alternative stocks related to the same theme.
Investment Calendar
The most important thing about heatwave-related stocks is the time axis.
Every year, instead of being bought after the weather gets hot, they are bought ahead of time, and when the heat actually hits, they sometimes run out of materials.
| Timing | Market Theme | Points of Interest |
|---|---|---|
| May | Initial response | Summer news, long-term forecast, and launch of heat stroke countermeasures |
| June | Anticipatory buying | Anticipating the end of the rainy season, electricity supply and demand, air conditioning sales |
| July | Theme Actual | Extremely Hot Days, Heatstroke Warning Alert, Beverage/Retail Monthly |
| First half of August | Earnings expectations | Sales trends in beverages, drugstores, and home electronics retailers |
| Late August | Profit alert | Typhoons, long rains, materials exhausted |
| October | Verification of financial results | Is it actually reflected in the profit margin |
When making investment decisions, it is not enough to simply ask, ``Will it be extremely hot?''
We need to see how far ahead the market is pricing in, whether it is converting to profit on a monthly or fiscal year-end basis, and whether the weather scenario has changed along the way.
Risk scenario
There are three major risks.
| Risk | Contents |
|---|---|
| Cool summer and long rain | Demand for beverages, air conditioning, and retail slows down |
| Running out of materials | Taking stock price ahead of actual demand |
| Cost increase | Logistics costs, electricity costs, personnel costs, and sales promotion costs reduce profits |
Especially during the El Niño transition phase, it becomes difficult to predict the weather in the second half of summer. It is important to note that stocks bought in anticipation of a special demand for a heat wave are more likely to react to news of typhoons or prolonged rain.
On the other hand, in a scenario with a cool summer and long rain, there is a possibility that funds will be transferred to stocks related to eating at home, defensive food, stay-at-home consumption, and stocks that benefit from low temperatures.
In the summer of 2026, the market is likely to be based on the entire climate change scenario, rather than just the extreme heat.
KPIs that investors should look at
The following are the materials I would like to check in the short term.
- Japan Meteorological Agency's 1-month and 3-month forecasts
- End of rainy season
- Announcement status of heat stroke warning alert
- Electricity supply and demand forecast for the Tokyo area
- Monthly sales of beverages, retail, and home electronics sales
In the medium term, the following are important:
- April-June financial results
- Profit margin for July-September period
- Quantity trends after price revision
- Absorption status of logistics costs and sales promotion costs
- Continuation of investment in energy saving and safety measures
The main focus is on profit margins, not sales.
Even if stocks sell during the heatwave, if there are no profits left, the sustainability of stock prices will be weakened. On the other hand, if a company increases its volume after raising prices and improves its profit margin while reducing promotional expenses, its evaluation may change from a theme stock to a performance stock.
Summary
Stocks related to the heat wave in the summer of 2026 are a complex theme that extends not only to beverages, air conditioning, and retail, but also to power supply and demand, occupational safety, ESG, and energy conservation.
In the short term, from May to July, summer news, heatstroke warnings, electricity supply and demand, and monthly sales are likely to be sources of information.
In the medium term, only companies that have actually improved their profit margins are more likely to be rated.
This year's basic approach is not to ``buy because it's hot,'' but to ``choose companies that can turn the heat into profits.'' Furthermore, it is important to manage the time axis, including typhoons, prolonged rain, and materials exhaustion from late August onwards.
Reference materials
- Agency for Natural Resources and Energy “About the electricity supply and demand forecast for 2026” (March 27, 2026)
- [Meteorological Agency "El Niño Monitoring Bulletin No. 403" (April 10, 2026)] (https://www.data.jma.go.jp/cpd/elnino/kanshi_joho/kanshi_joho1.html)
- Ministry of the Environment "Regarding heat stroke measures in FY2020" (April 1, 2026)
- Japan Exchange Group "Decision on delisting, etc.: Fujitsu General Ltd."
- Japan Exchange Group "Decision on delisting, etc.: ENERIS Co., Ltd."