[Summary]
In the financial results disclosure on May 11, 2026, it was confirmed that the machinery and semiconductor-related business has recovered, profits have improved including gains from the sale of real estate, and continued growth in the payment and communications fields. In particular, THK and Nippon Thomson are beginning to see the benefits of a recovery in capital investment reflected in their performance, while SoftBank maintained its record-high profits and dividend increase forecast. On the other hand, Keikyu's real estate contribution will be large, while Infcurion's focus will be on achieving both continued high growth and cash flow improvement. In the short term, the improvement in supply and demand through upward revisions and dividend increases, and in the medium term, the gap between profit continuity and market expectations can easily affect stock valuations.
Financial results disclosures were concentrated on May 11, 2026.
There were 186 disclosures related to financial results confirmed. Excluding duplicates, there were 183 stocks.
Among them,
*Profit increase rate *Upward revision
- Dividend policy
- Market theme
- Continuity of profits
Based on these criteria, we selected 5 brands.
What we focused on this time was
- Keikyu Corporation (9006) *THK (6481)
- Softbank (9434)
- Infucurion (438A)
- Nippon Thomson (6480)
It is.
Rather than simply “good financial results”,
*Which profits are structural factors?
- Is it a temporary factor?
- Is there a difference with market expectations?
Organize with emphasis on.
Financial Highlights
| Indicators | Contents |
|---|---|
| Keikyu | Ordinary profit expected to increase by 52.5% |
| THK | First half profit forecast revised upward by 26.5% |
| Softbank | Highest profit/dividend increase forecast |
| Infcurion | Ordinary profit expected to increase by 57.4% |
| Nippon Thomson | Operating income increased by 249.6% |
Overview
Forecasts for the fiscal year ending March 2027 are as follows:
- Operating revenue 401.5 billion yen *Operating income 45 billion yen
- Ordinary income 44 billion yen *Net profit 30 billion yen
It became.
Ordinary profit is expected to increase 52.5% year on year.
In addition to the recovery in railway demand, Profits are expected to be boosted by gains from real estate sales and condominium sales.
Financial Highlights
| Indicators | Contents |
|---|---|
| Sales | Forecast of 401.5 billion yen |
| Operating income | 45 billion yen forecast |
| Ordinary profit | +52.5% |
| Factor 1 | Real estate sale |
| Factor 2 | Condominium sales |
What happened
Quantity
Passenger demand continues to recover.
Hotel demand and inbound tourism are also showing signs of recovery.
Price
In the railway business, the impact will mainly be from a recovery in usage rather than a significant price improvement.
Cost
Increasing pressure on personnel costs continues.
Exchange
Direct impact is limited.
Structural or temporary
Gains on real estate sales tend to be a temporary factor.
On the other hand, recovery in transportation demand is similar to structural improvement.
Latest materials (3 months)
- Expected significant increase in profits next fiscal year
- Expansion of real estate-related profits
- Expected recovery in inbound tourism
- Return of funds to railway stocks
In terms of stock prices, “Continuity of profits” tends to be the focus.
Business structure
Source of revenue
- Railway
- Real estate *Hotel
- Distribution
Profit margin
The real estate business has a large contribution to profits.
Strengths
- Haneda Airport Access
- Real estate along the railway line
- Tourism recovery benefits
Weaknesses
*Personnel cost burden
- Real estate dependence
Implications for stock prices
This increase in profit is a material for evaluation.
However, It is important how the market evaluates the factors that lead to real estate sales.
Because profits are not growing solely due to transportation demand, There is a possibility that there is limited room for expansion of PER.
Short term (6 months)
- Inbound related themes
- Review of railway stocks
- Real estate sales progress
is the focus.
Mid-term (1 year)
Will the recovery in transportation demand take root?
Due to real estate dependence, It is important to be able to transition to recovery in the main business.
Scenario analysis
Bullish: 35% Continuation of inbound tourism and expansion of real estate profits
Neutral: 45% Trends in line with company plans
Bearish: 20% Delay in real estate sales and increase in personnel costs
Risk
| Risk | Contents |
|---|---|
| Personnel costs | Cost increase |
| Real estate | Changes in sales timing |
| Economy | Slowdown in passenger demand |
Overview
For the first quarter of the fiscal year ending December 2026,
*Sales revenue: 69.043 billion yen *Operating income 7.62 billion yen
- Quarterly profit 4.491 billion yen
It became.
Operating income increased by 364.4% compared to the same period last year.
Furthermore, The first half profit forecast has been revised upward by 26.5%.
Financial Highlights
| Indicators | Contents |
|---|---|
| Sales | 69.043 billion yen |
| Operating profit | +364.4% |
| First half profit | 26.5% upward revision |
| Factor 1 | Recovery in electronics-related demand |
| Factor 2 | Improvement in industrial equipment orders |
What happened
Quantity
Semiconductor/electronic-related demand is recovering.
Price
Improve the ratio of high value-added products.
Cost
Structural reform effects contributed.
Exchange
The weak yen is a constant tailwind.
Structural or temporary
A recovery in the capital investment cycle is a factor for structural improvement.
However, the business cycle is strong.
Latest materials (3 months)
*Upward revision
- Expectations for semiconductor-related recovery
- FA related improvements
- US tariff risk
Stock prices are in a phase where it is easy to factor in expectations that they will bottom out.
Business structure
Source of revenue
*LM guide
- Industrial equipment
- Semiconductor related
Profit margin
Easy to improve during the capital investment phase.
Strengths
- World share
- High precision technology
- FA related demand
Weaknesses
- Business cycle effects
- Depends on Chinese demand
Implications for stock prices
The upward revision is positive.
The market is likely to be aware that semiconductor capital investment has bottomed out.
However, Because it is an economy-sensitive stock, Short-term volatility tends to increase.
Short term (6 months)
- Continued upward revision
- Semiconductor-related capital inflow
- Capital investment recovery
is the highlight.
Mid-term (1 year)
Will the recovery in FA/automation investment continue?
The focus is on fixing profit margin improvement.
Scenario analysis
Bullish: 40% Semiconductor capital investment continues to recover
Neutral: 40% Company plan line trends
Bearish: 20% Economic slowdown/capital investment slowdown
Risk
| Risk | Contents |
|---|---|
| Economy | Slowdown in capital investment |
| Foreign exchange | Strong yen |
| Tariffs | Deterioration of profit margin |
Overview
For the fiscal year ending March 2026,
*Sales: 7,038.6 billion yen *Operating income 1,042.5 billion yen *Net profit 550.7 billion yen
It became.
Net profit is the highest ever.
The forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027 is 560 billion yen.
The common stock dividend is expected to be 8.80 yen.
Financial Highlights
| Indicators | Contents |
|---|---|
| Sales | 7,038.6 billion yen |
| Operating income | 1,042.5 billion yen |
| Net profit | Record high |
| Factor 1 | Stable communications revenue |
| Factor 2 | PayPay expansion |
What happened
Quantity
The telecommunications contract infrastructure is stable.
Financial and payment usage is also expanding.
Price
ARPU improvement is limited.
Cost
Large-scale investment burden continues.
Exchange
Some investment businesses were affected.
Structural or temporary
Telecommunications revenue is structurally stable.
On the other hand, some profits are easily affected by the investment environment.
Latest materials (3 months)
- New record high profit
- Dividend increase forecast
- AI-related investment expectations
- PayPay expansion
The focus is on re-evaluation as a high-yield defensive player.
Business structure
Source of revenue
- Communication *PayPay
- Finance
- Media
Profit margin
Telecommunications business is highly profitable.
Strengths
- Huge customer base
- High dividend
- Financial cooperation
Weaknesses
- Mature market
- Investment burden
Implications for stock prices
Highest profits and dividend increases are evaluation materials.
However, As a telecommunications stock, it already has a certain level of valuation.
What is important is the extent to which the market factors in growth in the AI and financial fields.
Short term (6 months)
- Dividend increase evaluation
- High dividend capital inflow
- AI theme
is the focus.
Mid-term (1 year)
Expanding profits in areas other than communications is important.
The focus is on the progress of PayPay monetization.
Scenario analysis
Bullish: 30% Expansion of finance/AI field
Neutral: 50% Continued stable growth
Bearish: 20% Increased investment burden
Risk
| Risk | Contents |
|---|---|
| Regulation | Pressure on communication charges |
| Investment | AI investment burden |
| Competition | Intensifying financial competition |
Overview
For the fiscal year ending March 2026,
- Sales 9.505 billion yen *Operating income 440 million yen
- Ordinary profit 336 million yen
It became.
Operating income increased by 207.4%.
Ordinary profit for the fiscal year ending March 2027 is expected to increase by 57.4%.
Financial Highlights
| Indicators | Contents |
|---|---|
| Sales | +32.5% |
| Operating profit | +207.4% |
| Ordinary profit forecast | +57.4% |
| Factor 1 | BtoB payment growth |
| Factor 2 | Expand stock revenue |
What happened
Quantity
Payment usage continues to expand.
Price
Improve stock-type profit ratio.
Cost
Development investment burden continues.
Exchange
Impact is limited.
Structural or temporary
Payment infrastructure growth is a structural factor.
However, the upfront investment burden is also large.
Latest materials (3 months)
- Continued high growth *SMBC cooperation
- Expansion of BtoB payments
- Expected to improve operating CF
This is a situation where it is easy to be evaluated as a growth stock.
Business structure
Source of revenue
- Payment platform *BaaS
- Corporate payment
Profit margin
Upfront investment is likely to fluctuate.
Strengths
- High growth market *Stock income
- Financial cooperation
Weaknesses
*Cash flow
- Investment burden
Implications for stock prices
Continuing high growth is evaluation material.
However, The market tends to focus on "quality of profits" and "improvement of operating CF."
While PSR evaluation tends to increase, Adjustments when growth slows also tend to be large.
Short term (6 months)
*New introduction
- Expansion of payment and circulation amount
- Growth stock capital return
is the focus.
Mid-term (1 year)
It is important to balance profit growth and operating CF improvement.
The key is to increase the stock return ratio.
Scenario analysis
Bullish: 40% Continued high growth
Neutral: 40% Maintaining high level despite slowing growth
Bearish: 20% Increased investment burden
Risk
| Risk | Contents |
|---|---|
| Investment burden | Decrease in profit margin |
| Competition | Fintech competition intensifies |
| CF | Decreased ability to generate funds |
Overview
For the fiscal year ending March 2026,
- Sales 63.031 billion yen *Operating income 4.102 billion yen
- Ordinary profit 5.162 billion yen
It became.
Operating income increased by 249.6%.
For the fiscal year ending March 2027, operating profit is expected to be 8.2 billion yen.
Financial Highlights
| Indicators | Contents |
|---|---|
| Operating profit | +249.6% |
| Next fiscal year operating income | 8.2 billion yen forecast |
| Dividend | Dividend increase forecast |
| Factor 1 | Semiconductor demand |
| Factor 2 | Demand for machine tools |
What happened
Quantity
Increased demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Price
Improve the ratio of high value-added products.
Cost
Absorbed by improving utilization rate.
Exchange
The weak yen is a tailwind.
Structural or temporary
Demand for AI and automation is a medium- to long-term theme.
However, the influence of the capital investment cycle is strong.
Latest materials (3 months)
- Significant increase in profit
- Dividend increase forecast
- Semiconductor-related recovery *AI-related expectations
The focus is on capital inflows into machinery and semiconductor-related industries.
Business structure
Source of revenue
*Bearing
- For semiconductor equipment
- For machine tools
Profit margin
It is easy to increase by improving the utilization rate.
Strengths
- High precision technology
- Semiconductor-related demand
- Expansion for FA
Weaknesses
- Business cycle
- Depends on capital investment
Implications for stock prices
The market is likely to be conscious of a ``semiconductor circulation recovery''.
Especially if AI-related capital investment continues, It is easy to be aware that there is room for evaluation.
On the other hand, as it is an economy-sensitive stock, There are also large fluctuations in supply and demand.
Short term (6 months)
- Semiconductor-related capital inflow
- Dividend increase evaluation
- Expected AI capital investment
is the focus.
Mid-term (1 year)
It is important to continue recovering capital investment.
The key is to improve profit margins.
Scenario analysis
Bullish: 45% Expansion of AI-related capital investment
Neutral: 35% Company plan line trends
Bearish: 20% Semiconductor investment slowdown
Risk
| Risk | Contents |
|---|---|
| Economy | Slowdown in capital investment |
| Foreign exchange | Strong yen |
| Geopolitics | Supply Chain Disruption |
Railway/Real Estate
Keikyu has a large contribution from real estate.
In addition to transportation demand, Asset utilization is boosting profit growth.
Machinery/Semiconductor
THK, Nippon Thomson, The benefits of the recovery in capital investment are noticeable.
In particular, a common theme is the recovery in semiconductor-related demand.
Communication/Fintech
Softbank is stable.
Infcurion is a high-growth species.
Market evaluation axes vary greatly.
In this group of financial statements,
- Semiconductor capital investment recovery
- AI related themes
- High dividend evaluation *Fintech growth
is easily recognized as a market theme.
However, Not just a simple profit increase rate,
- Continuity of profits
- Temporary factor ratio
- Difference with market expectations
becomes important.
Especially economic-sensitive stocks, There will also be large fluctuations if expectations for upward revisions dissipate.
The 5 stocks this time are Each has different strengths.
- Keikyu's profit recovery including real estate
- THK recovers in capital investment
- Softbank has stable profits and increased dividends
- Infcurion has high growth
- Nippon Thomson's semiconductor related recovery
is the central theme.
In the short term, The focus is on upward revisions, dividend increases, and capital inflows into semiconductor themes.
In the mid-term, The difference between the continuity of profits and market expectations tends to affect stock valuation.