[Summary]
During Trump's return visit in 2026, there is a possibility that the focus will be on ``designing an order'' that includes AI, semiconductors, and national security, rather than ``improving the efficiency of trade negotiations'' as he did in 2017. For Japan, it becomes clear that rather than simply being a country with a high exposure to the Chinese economy, Japan is being evaluated more as a core security player that supports the technological and industrial order of the United States.
However, in terms of investment, it is difficult to make decisions based solely on the short-term tailwinds of defense stocks; the essence of the result lies in the balance between the reallocation of supply and demand/security risks and long-term expectations for infrastructure demand.
First, the conclusion
His visit to China in 2017 was mainly focused on adjusting trade, agricultural products, and financial balances.
On the other hand, in 2026, the focus will likely be on ``overall design,'' including the infrastructure area that supports the foundations of industry, AI power, semiconductors, data and cyber order, and Taiwanese risk management.
This difference is directly connected to the evaluation logic of Japanese stocks. This is because there is room for Japan's strategic asset evaluation to be reconfigured based on the progress of supply chain redesign, rather than expectations as a one-off event.
Differences from 2017
In 2017,
- where to make it
- Which is more advantageous as an import destination?
- How much trade deficit can be reduced?
was the central theme.
At present, the points of discussion are shifting in the following order.
- Control of power, chips, and materials necessary for competition in the AI era
- Industrial infrastructure that absorbs external shocks for security reasons
- Proactive response to supply disruption risks related to Taiwan and maritime transportation
For this reason, the performance chain associated with the ``redesign of rules between countries'' becomes more important than the economic cycle.
Why is Japan's position changing?
Japan is not only an exporting country, but also has a high proportion of bottlenecks in the following infrastructure-related areas.
- Semiconductor materials and high-performance chemical materials
- Precision processing technology
- Power/wire/communication equipment
- Energy/logistics operation circuit
In this sense, beyond the success or failure of the US-China agreement,
- Japan's remaining core capabilities in supply and demand
- Administrative costs of technology transfer
- Alliance network coordination cost
is factored into the market's evaluation of Japanese stocks. The market may reassess prices as an important component of the negotiation game rather than Japan as an arbiter for China.
Price reaction should be considered in two stages
First, in the short term, defense-related and related stocks tend to outperform due to the following themes.
- Expectations for orders linked to expansion of defense spending
- Increased demand for security and communications
- Proactive buying of stocks reminiscent of government procurement
However, this is a short-term reaction, and the actual price formation will differ in the subsequent full-scale phase.
Next, if Taiwan risk materializes, the entire Japanese market could be subject to reassessment.
- Yen, JGB, financial stocks
- Logistics related including aviation and ports
- Power generation/power grid/data center related
At this stage, there is room for stronger buying as a risk premium, but at the same time there is also the risk of another deceleration of economic-sensitive stocks in the midst of an economic recession.
Issues regarding AI infrastructure demand
AI is not just about "increasing revenue through software development."
The actual profit chain consists of electricity, cooling, communications, substation, electronic components, and factory operating rates. This is where the evaluation diverges.
- Positive side: Will Japanese companies be able to maintain and recover their market share in mounting materials, parts, and equipment?
- Negative side: Will procurement delays, supply chain friction, and procurement diversification costs exceed expectations?
Therefore, although the AI theme is a medium- to long-term tailwind, its immediate return on short-term profits and losses may be limited.
Market evaluation perspective
Stock prices fluctuate not only based on business performance, but also on market expectations and supply and demand.
Immediately after a visit to China, prospects' preliminary reactions come first, but sustained evaluations are divided into the following:
- Normal growth expectation scenario: Medium-term valuation increases due to supply network restructuring and expectations for improved capital efficiency
- Scenario for worsening tensions: Expectations for restructuring decline due to procurement risks, currency pressures, and freezing of investment plans
Which scenario is dominant is more important than the content of the agreement.
- Implementation rules for customs duties and technology transfer
- De facto response to Taiwan risks
- Adjustment range of companies' capital investment plans
will be judged.
Summary
Rather than being a mere diplomatic event, it is practical to read this visit to China as an event that shows where the implementers of world order will turn.
Japan is increasingly viewed as being at the intersection of industrial order and security in the age of AI, rather than an exit linked to the economy. Rather than a short-term sectoral rebound, it would be more appropriate to wait for a medium- to long-term reassessment in line with policy implementation and corporate behavior.
Source
This article has been organized as structural suggestions based on publicly available information at the time (planned visit to China, basic understanding of Japan-U.S.-China relations, general geopolitical assessment of the market during the same period).