FANUC (6954) financial results analysis | Physical AI, FA recovery, share buybacks leading to reevaluation phase

[Summary]

FANUC (6954) announced its financial results for the fiscal year ending March 2026 on April 24, 2026.

In the fiscal year ending March 2026, we achieved sales of 857.8 billion yen, operating income of 183.7 billion yen, and net income attributable to owners of the parent company of 166.5 billion yen.

Furthermore, for the fiscal year ending March 2027, we are forecasting sales of 909.6 billion yen, operating income of 212.2 billion yen, and net income attributable to owners of parent of 184.9 billion yen. The plan is for operating income to increase by 15.5% compared to the previous fiscal year.

The essence of this time is

“Recovery in business performance of cyclical stocks” and “expectations for physical AI” are riding on the same coin

It is.

On May 13th, we announced a physical AI system for industrial robots in collaboration with Google, and on May 15th, we also announced enhanced collaboration with NVIDIA. The stock price rose to a closing price of 8,228 yen and a high of 8,720 yen on May 15th, and has already progressed from the ``testing phase of breaking through the 200-day line'' to the ``can it maintain the high price range after the sharp rise?''

First, the conclusion

FANUC is not just a machinery stock;

“Physical AI core stock that implements AI in real factories”

We are now in a phase where it is being re-evaluated.

The following four points are important in this financial statement and materials.

If Fujikura is a ``digital AI infrastructure stock that supports AI data centers,'' FANUC is a ``real AI stock that implements AI into factories, robots, and processing machines.''

This comparison makes it easier for FANUC to be seen as a leading candidate for the second wave of AI, or physical AI market, rather than a laggard in the AI ​​market.

Evaluation of financial results

In the fiscal year ending March 2026, sales were 857.8 billion yen, operating income was 183.7 billion yen, ordinary income was 227.4 billion yen, and net income attributable to owners of parent was 166.5 billion yen.

Operating profit margin was 21.4%, an improvement from 19.9% ​​in the previous fiscal year.

Number points

Financial results briefing materials show that FA sales were strong in China, robot sales were strong in the Americas and China, and that improved factory operations contributed to improved profits.

This is more than "explosive new business growth."

“Signs that the FA/Robot/Robomachine cycle has bottomed out and is headed for recovery”

It is natural to evaluate it as

What is physical AI?

Generative AI has so far evolved primarily on screens.

Physical AI, on the other hand, is an area where AI recognizes the real world, makes decisions, and operates machines.

In FANUC's domain, the flow is as follows.

Key point
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AIKey point
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CNCKey point
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Key point
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Key point

What's important here is that FANUC is not just a robot manufacturer.

The company has expertise in implementing CNCs, servo motors, industrial robots, robo-machines, FA systems, maintenance services, and manufacturing sites.

In other words, we already have the foundation to implement physical AI into our factories.

Meaning of Google collaboration

On May 13, 2026, FANUC announced that it has collaborated with Google to evolve its physical AI system for industrial robots.

The key point is that the AI ​​agent uses Google Cloud's Gemini Enterprise to understand human instructions, recognize objects, and move multiple FANUC robots.

Fanuc explains that it has already shipped more than 1,000 physical AI-related robots since it unveiled its physical AI system at the International Robot Exhibition last December.

This is very important.

Rather than just “researching AI”,

“AI implementation is progressing close to the introduction of actual robots and factories.”

This gives an impression to the market.

Meaning of NVIDIA cooperation

On May 15, 2026, strengthening of collaboration with NVIDIA was also announced.

FANUC is strengthening the collaboration between NVIDIA Isaac Sim and its robot simulation software ROBOGUIDE, and is proceeding with high-precision digital twin and robot operation verification in virtual space.

This is important for physical AI.

Rather than trying out robots in a real factory, if you can test robot operations, parts recognition, bulk removal, handling of flexible objects, etc. in a virtual space, you can reduce the introduction period and start-up risks.

Key point
↓
AIKey point
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Key point
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Key point
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Key point

Google is positioned as an AI agent, and NVIDIA is positioned as a simulation, edge AI, and robot platform.

FANUC can be seen as a company that connects both to actual factory automation and robots.

Shareholder returns and supply and demand

FANUC resolved to acquire treasury stock on April 24, 2026.

Stock buybacks provide support from the supply and demand side.

However, there are some caveats. The previous share buyback, which was approved in April 2025, had a redemption rate of only 0.5% based on the acquisition price, after comprehensively taking stock price trends and other factors into consideration.

Therefore, it is necessary to confirm the actual acquisition status through monthly disclosure, rather than deciding that we will definitely buy the entire amount for this 50 billion yen limit.

Chart structure

At the manuscript stage, the main focus was on whether we could break through the 200-day moving average.

However, with the Google collaboration announcement on May 13th, the strengthening of NVIDIA collaboration on May 15th, and the sharp rise in stock prices, the situation is moving forward.

The stock prices as of May 15th are as follows:

In other words, the focus now is not on "will we cross the 200-day line?"

“Can we maintain the 8,000 yen level and stay in the high price range even after the sharp rise?”

It is.

How to think about top and bottom prices

From here, we will organize the price ranges as follows.

On the upside, the short-term check is whether the price can break above 8,720 yen.

On the downside, if the price falls below 8,000 yen, it is easy to see that the theme buying momentum has calmed down.

Oscillator and Overheating

In the manuscript, it was stated that ``If the RSI is in the mid-50s, the feeling of overheating will be limited.''

However, after the sharp rise up to May 15th, caution should be taken against short-term overheating.

What is important is not the oscillator alone, but the price movement after the spike.

Physical AI materials are strong, but after a large movement in a short period of time, it is easy to take profits.

Valuation

If you simply compare the May 15th closing price of 8,228 yen and the expected EPS of 198.14 yen for the fiscal year ending March 2027, the expected PER is approximately 41.5 times.

8,228yen ÷ 198.14yen = 41.5

This is by no means cheap for an economy-sensitive machinery stock.

Therefore, the stock price from here on depends not only on ``good financial results,'' but also on whether the next evaluation can be factored in.

Justifying a high P/E ratio requires a track record of orders and profits, as well as an AI theme.

Risk factors

The biggest risk is another deterioration in the external demand cycle.

FANUC is both a physical AI stock and a foreign demand cyclical stock.

The risks to be aware of are as follows.

FANUC is starting to be bought as an "AI theme stock," but the foundation of its performance is FA, robots, robomachines, and services.

We need to look at both thematic and economic cycles.

Second half of 2026 scenario

Main scenario

Physical AI and capital investment recovery are progressing at the same time, and the price is expected to test its upside while maintaining the 8,000 yen level.

The conditions are as follows.

If these conditions are met, there is a possibility that FANUC will continue to be reevaluated as a ``physical AI stock that will come after digital AI.''

Risk scenario

Unable to maintain the 8,000 yen level, the price will be readjusted from the 7,500 yen level to around 8,000 yen.

Google and NVIDIA materials have skyrocketed, making it easier to run out of materials and take profits in the short term.

However, given the business outlook and the stock buyback limit, at this point, it is more likely than a major collapse.

“Re-adjustment while waiting for order confirmation while maintaining expectations for physical AI”

I think it's easy to become.

Overall evaluation

FANUC is currently

“Large-sized main stock that can simultaneously aim for physical AI and manufacturing cycle reversal”

It is.

The materials for this time can be organized as follows.

If Fujikura is a growth stock in AI infrastructure, FANUC is a favorite candidate for physical AI, which implements AI into the real world.

However, as of May 15th, the stock price has already risen to 8,228 yen, and the expected P/E ratio is in the 40s.

Therefore, from this point on, it is not enough to simply say ``people buy the product because the theme is strong.''

The conditions for the next rise will be whether the price maintains the 8,000 yen level and whether orders, profit margins, and AI implementation continue to materialize.

Final conclusion

The focus after the beginning of the week is

“Can we maintain the 8,000 yen level and retest the May 15th high of 8,720 yen?”

It is.

``Breaking the 200-day moving average'' at the manuscript stage has already been advanced one step further due to material market prices.

From here on, it is important to maintain the VWAP level even after the sharp rise and to be able to establish a high price zone with trading volume.

On the other hand, if the price clearly falls below 8,000 yen, a readjustment to the 7,500 yen level is likely in the short term.

However, considering the recovery in business performance, physical AI materials with Google and NVIDIA, share buybacks, and expectations that the external demand cycle will bottom out, FANUC will

Rather than “defunct machinery stocks”

“Large major foreign demand stocks aiming to be reevaluated in the market for physical AI, which will come after digital AI”

It can be evaluated as follows.

Source

• FANUC “Financial results briefing materials, etc.”: https://www.fanuc.co.jp/ja/ir/announce/
• FANUC “Summary of Financial Results for the Fiscal Year Ending March 2026”: https://www.fanuc.co.jp/ja/ir/announce/pdf/2026/financialresult202603.pdf
• FANUC “2025 Financial Results Briefing Materials”: https://www.fanuc.co.jp/ja/ir/announce/pdf/2026/reference202603.pdf
• FANUC “Notice regarding decisions regarding matters related to share buyback”: https://www.fanuc.co.jp/ja/ir/announce_other/pdf/2026/notice20260424-01.pdf
• Fanuc “Accelerate social implementation of physical AI through collaboration with Google”: https://www.fanuc.co.jp/ja/profile/pr/newsrelease/2026/news20260513.html
• Fanuc "further strengthens cooperation with NVIDIA": https://www.fanuc.co.jp/ja/profile/pr/newsrelease/2026/news20260515.html
• Yahoo! Finance "FANUC (6954) Stock Price/Stock Information": https://finance.yahoo.co.jp/quote/6954.T