Mizuho Financial Group (8411) financial results analysis | Focus of interest rate normalization and bank stock revaluation

[Summary]

Mizuho Financial Group (8411) announced its financial results for the fiscal year ending March 2026 on May 15, 2026. Net profit for shareholders of the parent company was 1,248.6 billion yen, and the company expects it to be 1,300 billion yen in the fiscal year ending March 2027.

At the same time, the annual dividend forecast for fiscal 2026 is 150 yen, share buybacks up to 100 billion yen, and a healthy securities portfolio, indicating that the evaluation axis for bank stocks has shifted from just ``good financial results'' to ``improving capital efficiency as interest rates normalize.''

In terms of stock price, we can confirm the May 15, 2026 closing price of 6,912 yen, year-to-date high of 7,960 yen, and year-to-date low of 5,775 yen. From the beginning of the week onwards, the focus of short-term supply and demand will likely be whether the price can clearly recover and maintain around 7,000 yen.

First, the conclusion

This time, Mizuho FG is more than just a bank's good results, it is a measure of how bank stocks should be evaluated in the normalization phase of Japan's interest rates.

The following four points are particularly important.

The essence that investors should look at is not just ``whether or not it's the highest profit.''

What is important is whether the tailwind from rising interest rates, growth in non-interest rate businesses, shareholder returns, and the soundness of the bond portfolio are progressing at the same time.

Evaluation of financial results

For the fiscal year ending March 2026, Mizuho FG's consolidated net business profit was 1,461.1 billion yen, and the net profit for shareholders of the parent company was 1,248.6 billion yen.

Company documents show that both consolidated net business profit and net profit for parent company shareholders reached new record highs, and that TSE standard ROE was 11.4%.

Number points

Consolidated gross profit was supported by domestic and overseas non-interest rate businesses, the effects of a weaker yen, and the effects of rising yen interest rates.

On the other hand, there are also credit-related costs and preparations for overseas situations, so when it comes to bank stocks, it is necessary to look at ``profit growth'' and ``risk management'' at the same time.

Quality of profit

What I want to focus on in this financial report is not just the absolute amount of profit.

Mizuho FG explains that it has spent approximately 150 billion yen to improve the health of its securities portfolio in preparation for the future.

This may weigh on profits and losses in the short term, but in a period of rising interest rates, it makes sense to sort out the effects of past unrealized losses on bonds and low-yielding assets.

When it comes to bank stocks, it is important to look at the following three factors in addition to surface profits.

This is the point where you want to check not just the headline ``highest profit'' but also what item the profit is coming from.

Shareholder returns

Shareholder returns are a major focus this time.

Mizuho FG has forecasted an annual dividend of 150 yen for fiscal 2026, an increase of 5 yen compared to the previous year. In addition, we have currently decided to purchase treasury stock up to 100 billion yen.

The company's shareholder return policy is to progressively increase dividends per share and flexibly acquire treasury stock.

Bank stocks are more likely to be reevaluated as value stocks when dividends and share buybacks are evaluated, in addition to expectations for improved profits due to rising interest rates.

However, returns are based on profits and capital surplus. If credit costs increase or there are sudden changes in overseas markets, the evaluation will change.

Relationship with interest rate normalization

When looking at current bank stocks, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy and domestic interest rates cannot be avoided.

Banks' profits are affected by their interest margin, which is the difference between lending interest rates and deposit interest rates. When interest rates rise, it becomes easier to expect improvements in loan yields and securities yields.

The basic flow is as follows.

rise
↓
Key point
↓
Key point
↓
banksharesKey point

Mizuho FG's financial statements also indicate that the impact of rising yen interest rates is a factor in its performance.

On the other hand, rising interest rates also increase the repayment burden on businesses and households. For bank stocks, it will be a tug-of-war between improving margins and increasing credit costs.

Charts and supply and demand

According to stock price data as of May 15, 2026, Mizuho FG's closing price was 6,912 yen.

The price movements on the same day were: opening price 7,021 yen, high price 7,132 yen, low price 6,827 yen, VWAP 6,981.2 yen, trading volume 10,413,100 shares.

In the short term, the psychological milestone will be around 7,000 yen.

However, what is important is not whether the price will exceed 7,000 yen for just a moment, but whether the price can maintain the 7,000 yen level along with trading volume.

Points to check after the beginning of the week

In the initial movement after the settlement of accounts, it is difficult to judge the strength or weakness based only on the rise immediately after the market closes.

Bank stocks are large-capital stocks that attract foreign investors, ETFs, dividend-seeking funds, and short-term investors, so it is important to maintain VWAP and maintain supply and demand at the end of the market.

We want to see not only the reaction of individual materials, but also the reaction of the banking sector as a whole, including Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui FG, and regional bank stocks.

How to think about top and bottom prices

This article does not provide price predictions.

Instead, we organize price ranges that are easy for investors to check.

On the upside, the focus is on whether the price can approach the yearly high after establishing the 7,000 yen level.

On the downside, if expectations dissipate after the settlement of accounts, the key point to check on short-term supply and demand will be whether the price falls below the May 15th low.

Maximum risk

The biggest risk is a decline in expectations for the Bank of Japan's normalization.

Bank stocks are currently evaluated based not only on their current performance, but also on the benefits of future interest rate increases.

Therefore, you need to be careful about the following changes.

Even if the financial results are good, there is a possibility that the stock will be sold if interest rate expectations and market sentiment turn in the opposite direction.

Overall evaluation

As of May 2026, Mizuho FG has been viewed as a "high dividend/value stock" in addition to the traditional view, and is now seen as a large bank stock that reflects the normalization of interest rates in Japan.

In our latest financial results, we were able to simultaneously confirm record-high profits, improved ROE, increased dividends, share buybacks, and a healthier securities portfolio.

On the other hand, the valuation of bank stocks is greatly influenced by interest rates, credit costs, overseas markets, and sector supply and demand.

The essence after the beginning of the week is not only whether the price will return to the 7,000 yen level, but also whether it can be maintained in conjunction with the volume and sector after the return.

Source

• Mizuho Financial Group “Financial information”: https://www.mizuho-fg.co.jp/investors/financial/tanshin/index.html
• Mizuho Financial Group “Summary of FY2025 Financial Results”: https://www.mizuho-fg.co.jp/investors/financial/tanshin/pdf/data2603_fy_2.pdf
• Mizuho Financial Group “Capital Policy/Shareholder Return Policy/Dividend Information”: https://www.mizuho-fg.co.jp/investors/dividend.html
• Traders Web “Mizuho Financial Group Stock Price Data”: https://www.traders.co.jp/stocks/61_8411/