Crustal changes in the cooling cost economy | Climate adaptation infrastructure investment accelerated by midsummer days in May

[Summary]

It's not enough to look at the 2026 heatwave theme as just the classic "beer, ice cream, and air conditioning."

What the market really needs to evaluate is

“Cooling cost economic zone”

It is.

We are entering an era in which the profitability and operating capacity of society as a whole, from homes, commercial facilities, factories, logistics, data centers, and power transmission and distribution networks, is determined by how heat is handled.

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency's warm season forecast, the average temperature from June to August 2026 is expected to be high nationwide.

Furthermore, the combination of persistently high electricity rates, fluctuations in JEPX spot prices, and the power and cooling demands of AI data centers has made cooling for companies more than just a matter of comfort, but a matter of cost control.

Therefore, investors should look at

• Beverage sales volume
• Seasonal demand for ice cream
• Air conditioner sales at home appliance stores

Not just that.

What you really need to see is

• Heat insulation/heat shielding
• Industrial air conditioning
• Data center cooling
• Power conversion
• Power transmission and distribution
• Heat countermeasures at work sites

It is.

In this paper, we analyze heat waves not as a one-time event but as a climate adaptation infrastructure investment.

First, the conclusion

The investment axis for heatwave-related stocks has already changed.

Classically, when it gets hot,

• beer
• Ice cream *Air conditioner
• Home electronics retail store
• Leisure

is associated with it.

However, although this view can be used for short-term trading, it is weak as a medium- to long-term structural investment.

The reason is that increased sales do not necessarily lead to increased profits.

For beverages and food, raw material costs, packaging costs, and logistics costs will rise.

In air conditioner sales, bottlenecks include a lack of labor for installation work and the supply of parts.

For outdoor leisure activities, if the temperature rises too much, the number of visitors may decrease due to the risk of heatstroke.

Therefore, the theme of extreme heat waves after 2026 is

“Products that sell in the heat”

rather than

“Infrastructure to reduce heat-related costs”

should be viewed as such.

From this perspective, the core stocks change as follows.

What is the cooling cost economic zone?

What is the cooling cost economic zone?

Markets to handle heat, reduce power consumption, and maintain the operational capacity of society and industry

It is.

Until now, cooling has been primarily a comfort issue.

But now it's different.

The cooling is

• Household electricity bill
• Corporate operating profit margin
• Factory utilization rate
• Construction site safety
• Data center processing capacity
• Power system stability

It is directly connected to

In other words, heat treatment has become an infrastructure investment rather than a daily consumption.

Rearranging this structure, it looks like this:

Key point

1. Key point
   Key point

2. Key point
   Key point

3. Key point
data centersKey point

4. Key point
   Key point

Heatwaves are more than just weather events.

It's a structural change that feeds into a company's income statement through increased cooling costs.

Summer 2026 Assumptions

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency's 2026 Warm Season Forecast, average temperatures from June to August are expected to be high nationwide.

This is not just a seasonal forecast, but a cost assumption for investors.

When the temperature rises,

• Household cooling demand
• Store air conditioning load
• Factory cooling load
• Workload at logistics sites
• Data center cooling load
• Electricity peak demand

will rise at the same time.

What's important here is not just increased demand.

It is also necessary to look at electricity prices and construction capacity at the same time.

When electricity prices rise, cooling demand becomes a cost rather than a revenue.

If installation work is delayed, sales of air conditioners will be delayed.

If raw material costs and logistics costs rise, increasing the volume of beverages and food products will become less profitable.

In other words, investors

“It sells because it’s hot”

rather than

“Who will lower the costs of heat?”

You need to think about it.

Electricity price and JEPX perspective

Electricity prices are essential when considering the cooling cost economic zone.

In the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX) spot market, prices are prone to sudden changes when supply and demand are tight.

Especially during the daytime in summer, the demand for air conditioning increases, and this also coincides with fluctuations in the output of solar power generation.

From a company's perspective, this is an issue of operating profit margin.

When the electricity bill goes up,

• Retail store *Food factory
• Warehouse
• Logistics center
• Data center
• Commercial facilities

costs will increase.

For this reason, it is not just a demand for air conditioning;

“Cooling that reduces power consumption”

becomes important.

Energy-saving air conditioning, insulated windows, thermal barrier coatings, data center cooling, and power converters all connect in this context.

1. Improving the cooling efficiency of living spaces

LIXIL (5938)

LIXIL is important from the perspective of home insulation and window renovation.

In order to improve cooling efficiency, it is not enough to simply make the air conditioner stronger.

In homes where heat comes in from outside, cooling costs increase.

This is why internal windows and highly insulated windows are important.

The country's "Advanced Window Renovation 2026 Project" is a system that supports the renovation of window and door insulation in existing homes.

The project budget is estimated to be 112.5 billion yen.

LIXIL's interior window "Inplus" is a product that increases insulation by installing it on the inside of an existing window.

From an investor's perspective, LIXIL is more than just a housing equipment stock.

In times of intense heat,

“An insulation infrastructure company that lowers home cooling costs”

It can be seen as

However, demand for renovations is constrained by construction personnel.

Even with subsidies, it is important to note that construction capacity will be a bottleneck.

Nippon Paint Holdings (4611)

Nippon Paint HD is important from the perspective of thermal barrier paint.

In factories, warehouses, and commercial facilities, heat inflow from the roof and exterior walls increases the air conditioning load.

High reflectance paints and thermal barrier paints are expected to have the effect of lowering indoor temperatures and air conditioning loads by suppressing temperature rises on building surfaces.

It's important to note that thermal barrier paints aren't just "good for the environment."

For companies,

“Capital investment to lower electricity costs”

It is.

In particular,

• Factory
• Logistics warehouse
• Commercial facilities
• School *Hospital

In this case, heat countermeasures are directly linked to continued operation and cost reduction.

As a major global paint company, Nippon Paint HD has room to be evaluated for its climate-adapted materials.

2. Field-mounted thermal insulation for labor and commercial spaces

Workman (7564)

Workman can be seen as labor infrastructure in the era of extreme heat.

The company is launching products such as "Cool Shield" as a heat countermeasure product for spring/summer 2026.

Work clothes with fans, cooling clothing, thermal insulation materials, and sweat protection items are no longer just clothing.

In fields such as construction, logistics, security, agriculture, outdoor events, and delivery, having people able to move even in extreme heat is directly linked to business continuity.

In other words, Workman's heat protection products are

“Low-cost infrastructure that keeps outdoor labor up and running”

It is.

However, there are risks here as well.

Apparel is subject to inventory risk.

If the temperature is lower than expected, seasonal products will be difficult to digest.

Additionally, if the heat wave becomes too extreme, outdoor work itself may come to a halt, and demand may simply not increase.

3. Cooling of AI data centers and industrial infrastructure

Daikin Industries (6367)

Daikin Industries is at the core of the cooling cost economy.

Although home air conditioners have a strong image, important investment themes are industrial air conditioning and data center cooling.

In AI data centers, GPU servers are experiencing a rapid increase in heat generation.

If we can't handle heat generation, we won't be able to increase AI computing power.

In other words, the constraints on AI infrastructure are not only limited to semiconductors, but also to cooling.

Daikin develops cooling solutions for data centers, and in 2024 acquired Alliance Air Products, a US data center air conditioning company.

Additionally, in May 2026, the company announced that it will acquire all equity in CoolIT Systems, a liquid cooling solutions company for AI data centers.

This is very important.

Daikin is not just an air conditioning manufacturer;

“A cooling infrastructure company that solves heat problems in AI data centers”

is evolving into

Please note that the demand for home air conditioners during extreme heat waves depends on the capacity of the installation work.

Data center cooling, on the other hand, is a major B2B investment and a more structural growth theme.

Investors should focus on the sales mix for industrial and data centers rather than short-term special demand for residential air conditioners.

4. National level power stabilization

Daihen (6622)

DAIHEN is a company that develops substation equipment, transformers, power conditioners, welding mechatronics, etc.

Increased cooling demand increases the load on the power grid.

Especially in the summer, cooling demand and renewable energy output fluctuations overlap.

What is important is that

• Power receiving and substation equipment
• Transformer
• Power converter
• Power conditioner
• Industrial power supply

It is.

DAIHEN has contacts in both power infrastructure and industrial equipment.

It may seem unassuming when you look at it as a heatwave theme, but in reality,

“Electricity infrastructure company supporting increasing cooling demand”

It is.

Climate adaptation investment targets not only those who use electricity, but also those who provide a stable supply of electricity.

Classic heat wave theme noise

Check the profit margin for beverages and ice creams

Sales volumes of beverages and ice creams tend to increase during the intense heat.

However, investors need to look at profit margins, not just sales.

The reason is

• Raw material cost
• Prices of sugar, dairy products, coffee beans, etc.
• Packaging costs for aluminum cans, PET bottles, etc.
• Refrigerated logistics costs
• Labor costs
• In-store promotional expenses

This is because it puts pressure on profits.

Therefore, the simple view that ``it's a beverage stock because it's hot'' is not enough.

What you need to look at is price increase penetration, brand power, logistics efficiency, and profit margin.

Installation work is a bottleneck for home electronics retailers

Air conditioner sales tend to increase due to the intense heat.

However, you need to be careful about actual sales recognition.

Buying an air conditioner is not the end of the process; installation work is required.

When orders are concentrated due to the intense heat,

*Delay in construction reservation

• Lack of parts
• Shortage of construction personnel *Delivery delays

will happen.

As a result, sales may be delayed even if there is demand.

When looking at home appliance retailers, you need to check not only sales volume, but also construction capacity and gross profit margin.

The intense heat can be a headwind in Oriental Land.

Theme parks may benefit from summer vacation demand.

However, when heat waves become extreme, the story is reversed.

In extreme heat that exceeds 35 degrees, staying outdoors becomes a risk.

If the risk of heat stroke increases, visitors may shorten their stay or refrain from going out.

Outdoor leisure companies like Oriental Land may be able to capture demand up to a certain level of heat, but could face headwinds in extreme heat.

Don't buy it easily as a hot summer theme,

“Will the heat increase demand or stop people from going out?”

need to be considered separately.

5 checkpoints investors should look at

When choosing a stock in a cooling cost economic zone, you should check the following five points.

Of particular importance is data center connectivity.

AI infrastructure investments cannot avoid cooling and power.

For this reason, the cooling cost economic zone can also be seen as a derivative theme for AI-related stocks.

Final conclusion

The 2026 heatwave theme is more than just a seasonal event.

The essence is

“Cooling Cost Optimization Market to Adapt to Climate Change”

It is.

What is important is not products that sell when it gets hot, but infrastructure that keeps society and industry moving even when it gets hot.

At the heart of this is

• LIXIL insulated windows
• Nippon Paint HD's thermal barrier paint
• Workman's heat protection wear
• Daikin Industries data center cooling
• Daihen's power infrastructure

It is.

For short-term traders, midsummer days may be a source of volume.

However, for medium- to long-term investors,

“A company that lowers cooling costs”

This is the signal to look for.

Climate change, electricity prices, AI data centers, occupational safety, home insulation.

Where these intersect is the cooling cost economy.

The favorite stocks related to extreme heat are not products that sell temporarily due to the heat.

My favorite is

“A company that creates social infrastructure that is resistant to heat”

It is.

Source

• Japan Meteorological Agency "Warm Season Forecast"
• Agency for Natural Resources and Energy “Electricity supply and demand measures”
• Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX)
• Housing Energy Saving 2026 Campaign “Advanced Window Renovation 2026 Project”
• LIXIL “Inplus”
• Nippon Paint “Thermoeye”
• Workman Official "2026 Spring/Summer New Product Presentation Report"
• Daikin “Data Center Cooling Solutions”
• Daikin "Daikin to acquire leading AI data center liquid cooling solutions provider CoolIT Systems" May 12, 2026
• Daihen “Business Introduction”