[Summary]
On May 18, 2026, it was reported that Mizuho Financial Group was considering investing in Rakuten Bank, and the market's interest focused on Rakuten Group (4755) and Rakuten Bank (5838).
However, on the same day, Rakuten Group announced that this information was not announced by the company and that no decision had been made at this time. Therefore, this matter should not be read as a ``confirmed capital alliance,'' but as an ``important material in the consideration stage related to fintech restructuring.''
What investors should look at is not the simple structure of Mizuho's financial support. The question is whether Rakuten can transform from being a "telecommunications company" to a data platform company with ID, finance, and payments at its core.
First, the conclusion
When looking at Rakuten Group, it is not only the mobile deficit that is important.
More precisely,
“Can we use mobile as an gateway to become a platform company that makes money from financial and payment data?”
It is necessary to look at it from this point of view.
Rakuten Bank, Rakuten Securities, Rakuten Card, Rakuten Pay, and Rakuten Points are not individual financial services, but bundles of lifestyle data and payment data centered around Rakuten ID. The mobile business is not just a business that generates profits from communication charges, but also has strategic value as an ID infrastructure that brings users to financial and economic zones.
Mizuho's consideration of investing in Rakuten Bank is easy to understand when viewed as a strategic move regarding access rights to this financial data infrastructure.
What's happening?
On May 18, 2026, Rakuten Group stated that regarding the news of Mizuho FG's investment in Rakuten Bank that had come out the day before, ``This information was not announced by us,'' and disclosed that although it is considering reorganizing its FinTech business, no decisions have been made at this time.
Meanwhile, according to a Reuters report, it is true that Mizuho FG is considering various options, including investing in Rakuten Bank, but explains that no decisions have been made at this point.
In other words, there are three things I can say at this point:
| Points of discussion | Current situation |
|---|---|
| Mizuho's investment in Rakuten Bank | Reported to be under consideration including investment |
| Rakuten Group's official position | No decisions have been made |
| Investor perspective | Focus on feasibility of fintech restructuring and capital policy options |
If you read this as ``a confirmed capital alliance,'' you will make a wrong investment decision. In the stock market, stock prices tend to fluctuate based on market factors, but the final conditions, investment ratio, price, restructuring scheme, and regulatory approvals are a different matter.
Meaning of fintech restructuring
Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank announced that they will resume discussions on reorganizing their fintech business on February 25, 2026.
What is envisioned is a reorganization that would consolidate Rakuten Bank, Rakuten Card, Rakuten Securities Holdings, etc. into one group. Rakuten Bank is expected to remain listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime even after the reorganization, but the specific form of the reorganization and Mizuho's involvement have not yet been determined.
What is important here is that Mizuho is already deeply entrenched in the Rakuten Financial Zone.
| Target company | Mizuho's involvement |
|---|---|
| Rakuten Card | Mizuho Bank owns 14.99% of common stock |
| Rakuten Securities | Mizuho Securities owns 49.00% of common stock |
| Rakuten Bank | As of May 2026, in consideration stage including investment |
For Rakuten, by transferring some of its financial subsidiary shares to an external partner, it may be possible to expand its scope for raising funds while avoiding a public offering by the parent company. This is easily evaluated by the stock market as ``non-dilutive financing''.
However, financial subsidiaries are also good assets for Rakuten Group. The more equity is transferred outside, the less future profits will be captured. There is a trade-off between short-term financial improvement and medium- to long-term profit attribution.
Why is it a stock price factor?
The reason Rakuten Group's stock price is so sensitive to changes is that financial risk, mobile monetization, and reassessment of the financial business all move at the same time.
Change the way you look at financial risk
Over the past few years, Rakuten Group's stock price has been weighed down by upfront investments in its mobile business, losses, bond redemptions, and concerns about financing.
If a partial sale of Rakuten Bank shares or a capital alliance is realized, it would be an option for the parent company to secure cash while avoiding a large-scale dilutive capital increase. This tends to lead to the view that the worst-case scenario that the market was wary of is receding.
Mobile deficit confirmed to be narrowing
In the first quarter of FY2026, Rakuten Group's mobile segment revenue shrank to 131.2 billion yen and non-GAAP operating loss to 38 billion yen. On Rakuten Mobile alone, the total number of subscribed lines was 10.36 million at the end of March 2026, and EBITDA was a surplus of 1 billion yen.
The company is still in the red on an operating profit/loss basis, and it cannot be said that it has completely become profitable. However, the fact that the economy is moving from a phase of increasing deficits to a phase of decreasing losses is a factor in changing the outlook on the stock market.
Strong financial business profits
In the same first quarter of fiscal 2026, the FinTech segment's revenue was 275.3 billion yen and non-GAAP operating income was 58.5 billion yen.
Rakuten Card's shopping transaction volume is 6.8 trillion yen, Rakuten Bank has 18.07 million accounts and deposit balances of 12.9 trillion yen as of the end of March 2026, and Rakuten Securities' total securities accounts exceeded 14 million in April of the same year.
Because of this financial foundation, Rakuten has the potential to be evaluated not just as a loss-making telecommunications company, but as a retail financial platform that brings together finance, payments, and points.
Aim for Mizuho
For Mizuho, considering an investment in Rakuten Bank is directly linked to acquiring deposits and strengthening contact with individual customers.
While megabanks are strong in corporate transactions and large-scale deposits, competition is intensifying with digital financial services such as SBI Group and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group's Olive in the smartphone-based younger demographic, daily payments, online securities, and point economy areas.
Rakuten Bank is an online bank with a large number of accounts and strong ties with the Rakuten Economic Zone. Mizuho's deepening involvement here is not simply a matter of buying bank stocks, but appears to be a move to gain retail financial contact through Rakuten ID, Rakuten Card, Rakuten Securities, Rakuten Pay, and Rakuten Points.
What will Rakuten change from a telecommunications company?
The real issue for Rakuten Group is not just how much profit the mobile business will generate on its own.
Mobile is the gateway to using Rakuten ID on a daily basis. If telecommunications contracts, smartphone apps, bank accounts, card payments, securities accounts, and point usage are connected, Rakuten will have a cross-functional point of contact for users' purchasing, asset management, payments, communications, and e-commerce.
In this structure, the source of value changes as follows.
| Traditional view | Reevaluated view |
|---|---|
| Mobile loss-making companies | Platforms that pay ID acquisition costs |
| Selling a financial subsidiary | Expanding the economic zone through capital alliance |
| Point promotion | Glue for payment, purchasing, and financial data |
| Communication ARPU | Total LTV including financial customer referrals |
Of course, there are conditions for this view to hold. It is necessary for Rakuten to maintain its leadership in the economic zone even with the infusion of external capital, as the deficit in mobile continues to shrink and profits in the financial business continue to grow.
KPIs to watch in the second half of 2026
For Rakuten Group's investment decisions, news headlines alone are not enough.
| Indicators | Numbers and conditions that can be checked recently | Meaning of viewing |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Rakuten Mobile contract lines | 10.36 million lines as of the end of March 2026 | Distance to break-even point |
| Rakuten Mobile EBITDA | 2026 1Q 1 billion yen | Mobile self-driving power |
| Mobile Non-GAAP operating loss | 38 billion yen in 1Q 2026 | Burden to return to operating profit |
| Fintech Non-GAAP operating profit | 1Q 2026 58.5 billion yen | Pillar of group profit |
| Number of Rakuten Bank accounts | 18.07 million accounts as of the end of March 2026 | Deposit/payment platform |
| Rakuten Bank deposit balance | 12.9 trillion yen as of the end of March 2026 | Source of income in a period of rising interest rates |
| Rakuten Bank ROE | 21.7% for the fiscal year ending March 2026 | Bank subsidiary profitability |
| Number of Rakuten Securities accounts | Over 14 million accounts in April 2026 | New NISA/asset formation demand |
| Rakuten Card transaction volume | 6.8 trillion yen in 1Q 2026 | Payment data and fee base |
| Mizuho investment ratio | Undetermined at this time | Dilution, control rights, and profit attribution |
What is particularly important about this table is that mobile and finance are not viewed separately. If mobile profitability improves and high profits continue on the financial side, Rakuten's view could change from a ``financially unstable stock'' to a ``financial platform stock.''
Bullish scenario
In the bullish scenario, discussions with Mizuho will take shape and FinTech restructuring centered on Rakuten Bank will proceed in a manner that is acceptable to the market.
In this case, Rakuten Group will have time to absorb the mobile investment burden while allaying its concerns about a large-scale dilutive capital increase. If Rakuten Mobile's number of subscribed lines increases, its EBITDA continues to be in the black, and its operating loss further decreases, the stock market will more easily evaluate business regrowth rather than a financial crisis.
Furthermore, if data linkage among Rakuten Bank, Rakuten Securities, and Rakuten Card progresses, Rakuten may be reevaluated as a retail financial platform centered on ID, finance, and payments, rather than a telecommunications company.
Warning scenario
In the caution scenario, investment conditions and restructuring schemes fall short of market expectations.
For example, the sale price of Rakuten Bank's shares may be low, Rakuten's stake may decline significantly, restructuring may take time, or the response from supervisory authorities may become unclear.
Furthermore, even if the number of mobile contract lines increases, ARPU does not increase, and if the burden of capital investment and base station maintenance continues, the company will be unable to escape from a situation where it will be able to offset its communications deficit with the profits of its financial subsidiary. If there is a growing impression that high-quality financial assets are being handed over to external capital, the focus will be on lower medium- to long-term profits rather than short-term cash flow improvements.
Summary
Mizuho's consideration of investing in Rakuten Bank is a big boost for the Rakuten Group.
However, the project is not finalized at this point, and the investment ratio and conditions have not yet been determined. Investors need to look at how the fintech restructuring will affect Rakuten's corporate value, rather than simply thinking, ``Mizuho will help, so there's no need to worry.''
Rakuten's focus in the second half of 2026 will be narrowed down to the following three points.
- Under what conditions will financial restructuring centered on Rakuten Bank be concluded?
- Will the mobile business move from EBITDA surplus to operating surplus?
- Will Rakuten be able to maintain its leadership as an ID, finance, and payment platform without losing its value as a financial subsidiary?
Although this is a strong stock price indicator, it is not a confirmed fact. That's why I want to check official disclosures, investment conditions, and KPI trends side by side, rather than looking at news headlines.
Source
- Rakuten Group "About some news reports yesterday"
- [Reuters distribution (Newsweek Japan edition) "It is true that Mizuho FG is considering various options including investment in Rakuten Bank"] (https://www.newsweekjapan.jp/articles/-/322669)
- Rakuten Group "Notice regarding restart of discussions for FinTech business restructuring"
- Rakuten Group "FY2026 First Quarter Financial Highlights"
- Rakuten Bank “Fiscal Year Ended March 2026 Consolidated Financial Results”
- Rakuten Bank "18 Million Customer Accounts"