[Summary]
One of the most watched events in the global financial market in 2026 is the IPO of SpaceX, led by Elon Musk.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. filed Form S-1 with the US SEC on May 20, 2026. The IPO has now moved from the observation stage to the formal registration stage. However, this does not mean that the listing itself has been completed. Dates and conditions may change depending on SEC review, roadshow, market environment, and final price. (SEC EDGAR)
Reuters reports that the roadshow could start on June 4, 2026, with pricing set on June 11, 2026, and trading on June 12. The expected valuation is approximately $1.75 trillion and the amount raised is expected to exceed $75 billion, making it one of the largest IPOs in history, surpassing that of Saudi Aramco. (Reuters distributed article)
Still, a SpaceX IPO could move the space business to the forefront of capital markets.
In the Japanese market, associative buying tends to occur in space-related stocks, defense-related stocks, satellite communications, semiconductors, carbon materials, and AI/communications infrastructure.
In this article, we will summarize the latest status of SpaceX IPO, its impact on the Japanese market, related candidates for Japanese stocks, and strategies for individual investors.
First, the conclusion
SpaceX IPO is not just a large US IPO.
If realized, it will be a symbolic event that changes the space industry from a ``dream theme'' to ``a huge infrastructure industry that can be purchased directly on the open market.''
However, there are three things investors should check first:
| Points to check | How to view |
|---|---|
| Final prospectus | Price, number of shares to be offered, and lock-up may change even after S-1 filing |
| Profit and loss by business | Separately look at Starlink's surplus and AI division's deficit |
| Voting rights structure | Multiple voting rights of Class B shares limit the influence of public shareholders |
In Japanese stocks, it is easy to look for stocks related to Starlink, satellite communications, defense, space infrastructure, materials, and lunar surface development, as well as companies that have direct transactions with SpaceX.
However, many of the related stocks are "buying by association," and the SpaceX IPO does not necessarily boost business performance directly.
Latest developments in SpaceX listing
The status that can be confirmed as of May 28, 2026 is as follows.
| Item | Current arrangement |
|---|---|
| SEC Procedures | Form S-1 filed on May 20, 2026 |
| Listed market | Expected to be listed on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas |
| Ticker | Scheduled for `SPCX` |
| Roadshow | Reuters reports possible start date of June 4, 2026 |
| Pricing | Reuters reports the possibility of implementation on June 11, 2026 |
| Trading begins | Reuters reports that trading may start on June 12, 2026 |
| Valuation/Procurement Amount | Reuters reports a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion and a procurement plan of over $75 billion |
Importantly, although the S-1 filing has been confirmed, the public offering price and number of shares to be offered have not yet been finalized.
In an IPO, the accuracy of investment decisions increases only after the publication of the prospectus, roadshow, preliminary price conditions, final price, number of shares to be offered, and lock-up conditions are known.
Therefore, investors should check the following information in the final prospectus, rather than jumping in just by looking at the market capitalization and listing date posted on social media.
- Starlink's sales and profit contribution
- Profitability of rocket launch business
- Percentage of NASA/US government contracts *Capital investment and free cash flow
- Voting rights structure *Lockup and number of public shares
- AI business deficit and capital expenditures
Why is SpaceX going public now?
1. Starlink has become a huge communication infrastructure
Traditionally, the space industry was seen as a loss-making business.
However, it was the satellite communications business Starlink that changed the way SpaceX was viewed.
Starlink is a service that uses low-orbit satellites to provide Internet connectivity, and its use is expanding to include mountainous areas, the sea, disaster situations, and military and government applications.
The market is starting to value SpaceX as a space infrastructure tech company, not just a rocket company.
2. Rocket reuse has changed the industrial structure
SpaceX's biggest strength is rocket reuse, which lowers launch costs.
Lower rocket launch costs will change the economics of satellite constellations, Earth observation, lunar surface development, and space data utilization.
The SpaceX IPO will be the event in which capital markets put a price on this structural change.
3. Intersection between AI and space infrastructure
With this S-1, the outlook on the market has changed considerably.
SpaceX is also a rocket company, a communications infrastructure company with Starlink, and is also trying to be evaluated as an AI infrastructure company after integrating xAI. According to Reuters, the first quarter of 2026 saw an operating loss of $1.94 billion on sales of $4.69 billion. While the connectivity division, centered on Starlink, was in the black, the AI division posted a loss of $2.47 billion on sales of $818 million.
It's quite big here. The SpaceX IPO is being marketed not only as a "space stock" but also as an "AI infrastructure stock." However, in the AI business, costs are easy to see at the beginning, and profit contribution is still rough. They are strong when the market buys dreams, but after going public, quarterly results show more deficits and capital expenditures than sales growth.
Satellite data analysis, communications optimization, autonomous operation, defense AI, and space infrastructure control. As a theme, it's flashy. However, when making investment decisions, it is important to look at ``Starlink's earning power'' and ``fund consumption for AI investment'' separately.
New risks seen in S-1
With the S-1 submission, not only the expectations but also the risks became quite specific.
| Risk | View |
|---|---|
| Deficit in AI division | AI division alone will have a large operating loss in Q1 2026. Evaluation differs depending on whether you view it as growth investment or capital consumption |
| Starship development | A large part of future value depends on unfinished technology. Test failures and delays can have a direct impact on valuations |
| Huge capital investment | AI data center, satellite network, and rocket development are progressing simultaneously. Free cash flow should be viewed carefully |
| Concentrated voting rights | Multiple voting rights structure that grants 10 voting rights to Class B shares. Reuters reports that Musk is expected to maintain 85.1% of voting rights |
| Public price risk | A valuation of $1.75 trillion is likely to lead to high expectations. Even if you buy a good company at a price that is too high, your returns will be poor. |
The numbers are big. The story is also strong. That's why it's difficult to judge an IPO based solely on the initial price enthusiasm.
Global market trends
Space business is no longer just a dream market.
The World Economic Forum and McKinsey predict that the global space economy will expand from $630 billion in 2023 to $1.8 trillion in 2035. (World Economic Forum)
The following areas will support growth.
- Communication
- Positioning/navigation *Earth observation
- Defense
- Supply chain
- Disaster response
- AI data utilization
In other words, space is becoming less of an industry for launching rockets and more of an infrastructure that supports economic activity on the ground.
SpaceX IPO is an event that makes this flow visible to the capital market.
Impact on Japanese market
The impact of the SpaceX IPO on the Japanese market should be seen in terms of associations and thematic capital inflows rather than direct transactions.
The following five themes are likely to move quickly in the Japanese market.
1. Defense related
Space has become a security domain.
Missile surveillance, satellite communications, space situational awareness, disaster response, and defense communications are inseparable from space infrastructure.
In situations where increases in defense spending and space security overlap, it is easy to associate stocks with defense-related stocks.
2. Satellite communication
With the spread of Starlink, satellite communications is no longer a technology limited to mountainous areas and remote islands.
Disaster communications, maritime communications, corporate networks, direct smartphone communications, IoT communications, etc. are likely to have a ripple effect on communications carriers and communications equipment companies.
3. Carbon fiber/material
Lightweight, high-strength materials are important for rockets and aerospace.
Toray is an advanced materials company that develops carbon fiber composite materials, which are also used in aerospace applications. (Toray carbon fiber composite materials)
However, rather than the SpaceX IPO having a direct impact on Toray's business performance, it is being evaluated as an aerospace material theme.
4. Small satellite
As the demand for earth observation, defense, AI analysis, and disaster monitoring increases, interest in small satellites and satellite data-related companies will increase.
Canon Electronics is developing space-related businesses such as the CE-SAT series of microsatellites. (Canon Electronics Space-related Business)
5. Lunar surface development
As NASA and private companies progress in developing the lunar surface, expectations for lunar surface transportation, lunar surface data, resource exploration, and communications infrastructure increase.
iSpace is a representative Japanese space venture that engages in private lunar exploration, and is also attracting attention for its missions using SpaceX rockets.
Related stocks in the Japanese market
3402 Toray
Toray is a major manufacturer of carbon fiber composite materials, which are widely used in aerospace and industrial applications.
Rather than asserting a direct business relationship with SpaceX, it should be viewed as a lightweight material theme common to rockets, aviation, defense, and next-generation mobility.
The investment perspectives are as follows.
- Not only space but also aircraft recovery is a tailwind
- Also overlaps with the defense theme
- It is relatively easy to suppress overheating themes with large-cap stocks.
- In the fiscal year ending March 2026, sales will increase slightly and operating profit will remain almost unchanged, so it is not yet a stage to drastically review the company's performance just because of the SpaceX association.
9433 KDDI
KDDI is collaborating with SpaceX's Starlink to develop Starlink Business and au Starlink Direct.
In April 2026, KDDI launched a closed network service that connects SpaceX's Starlink Business with corporate network services. We have also launched ``au Starlink Direct for IoT,'' which allows IoT devices and Starlink satellites to communicate directly. (KDDI Starlink Business, KDDI au Starlink Direct for IoT)
The investment perspectives are as follows.
- Communication Defensive
- Dividends/stable income
- Domestic favorite candidate related to Starlink
- Differentiation in disaster communications, mountain area communications, and corporate closed networks
- Sales and operating income will increase in the fiscal year ending March 2026, with Starlink options riding on stable communications stocks rather than theme stocks.
9348 ispace
ispace is a representative example of the lunar surface development theme.
SpaceX is a stock that is likely to be looked for in the short term if space-themed funds flow in through the IPO.
On the other hand, the stock price is greatly influenced by mission success, financing, deficits, and development delays.
The investment perspectives are as follows.
- High purity of lunar surface development theme
- Extremely high volatility
- Focus on demonstration success and financing
- Although sales increased in the fiscal year ending March 2026, the final deficit continued, and there was a large distance between short-term theme funds and actual performance.
186A Astro Scale
Astroscale is a company involved in the removal of space debris.
As the number of low-orbit satellites like Starlink increases, the importance of countering space congestion, malfunctioning satellites, and debris will increase.
The company could be valued more as a space infrastructure maintenance company than a space cleaning company.
The investment perspectives are as follows.
- Super long-term theme of space infrastructure maintenance *Catalysts are government demands and regulations
- Large deficit and funding risk
- In the latest financial results, sales revenue increased significantly and the deficit narrowed, but operating cash flow expenditure and dilution risk remain.
7739 Canon Electronics
Canon Electronics is developing a small satellite business.
In the context of the era of satellite data, earth observation, disaster prevention, and mass production of space infrastructure, there is room for reassessment.
The investment perspectives are as follows.
- Small satellite theme
- Business scale is still limited *Not directly linked to SpaceX IPO, but viewed as related to Japan's satellite infrastructure
How should individual investors act?
Be prepared for high volatility immediately after IPO
The SpaceX IPO is likely to attract attention from investors around the world.
Immediately after an IPO, it is easy to concentrate the next round of funds.
- World speculative funds
- AI-related funds
- Space themed ETF
- SNS investor
- Funds that anticipate index adoption
Therefore, it is not a simple market where you can win by buying on the first day.
If the number of publicly traded shares is small, the initial price is likely to soar, but there is also a risk that the initial price will fall sharply after the initial price is established.
Japan-related stocks may be easier to target
For individual investors, it may be easier to make an initial move in Japan-related stocks than SpaceX itself.
The reason is as follows.
- Japanese market seems to be lagging behind
- Mixture of low PER large-cap stocks and small-cap theme stocks
- Thoughts on incorporating space-related ETFs and thematic investment trusts
- Starlink-related domestic news is easy to understand
However, associative buying tends to be short-lived.
When looking at related stocks, I would like to divide their distance from SpaceX into three levels.
| Distance | Stock example | How to read |
|---|---|---|
| Directly related | KDDI | Starlink service collaboration is clear |
| Theme-related | ispace, Astroscale, Canon Electronics | Association of space development and satellite infrastructure |
| Peripheral related | Toray | Associated as an aerospace material theme |
Investment strategy
1. SpaceX itself will check the final conditions
When investing in SpaceX itself, it is too early to make a buying decision just by submitting an S-1.
In particular, I would like to check the following items.
- Starlink sales and profit margin
- AI sector deficit and capital expenditures
- Profitability of rocket business
- Dependency on government contracts *Capital investment amount
- Free cash flow
- Stock voting rights structure *Public price and number of shares to be offered *Lockup
2. Japanese stocks are classified by “directness”
If you buy related stocks based on their mood, you can easily grab high prices.
Stocks like KDDI that are linked to services and stocks associated with a space theme should be looked at separately.
3. Separate short-term themes and long-term infrastructure
Immediately after an IPO, it tends to become a theme market.
However, what we need to look at in the long term is whether space communications, defense, earth observation, debris removal, and lunar surface development will actually become profitable.
It is important not to confuse short-term price movements with long-term industry growth.
Summary
The SpaceX IPO is the turning point when the space industry becomes a serious public market topic.
With the S-1 filing on May 20, 2026, the IPO entered the formal registration process stage. However, this does not mean that the listing is complete. It is difficult to rush into making an investment decision until you see the final prospectus, public price, number of shares to be offered, and lock-up conditions.
In the Japanese market, KDDI, ispace, Astroscale, Canon Electronics, Toray Industries, etc. tend to attract attention as related themes.
The important thing is not whether you can buy SpaceX itself.
The question is how to read the expansion of industries such as space communications, satellite infrastructure, defense, materials, debris removal, and AI infrastructure.
SpaceX IPO has the potential to change the space business from a dream to an investment target. On the other hand, serious issues such as deficits in the AI business, Starship development, concentration of control in Musk, and high valuations have also come to the market at the same time.
Source
This article was created based on public information and news reports.
- SEC EDGAR "Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Form S-1" May 20, 2026
- Reuters distribution “SpaceX IPO filing lays bare losses and Musk control as it stakes future on AI” May 20, 2026
- Reuters distributed "SpaceX accelerates IPO timeline, targets June 12 listing on Nasdaq, sources say" May 15, 2026
- World Economic Forum “Space Economy Set to Triple to $1.8 Trillion by 2035” April 8, 2024
- KDDI "First in Japan to launch Starlink connection service over closed network" April 30, 2026
- [KDDI "For the first time in Japan, 'au Starlink Direct' also connects to IoT" April 23, 2026] (https://newsroom.kddi.com/news/detail/kddi_nr-990_4444.html)
- Toray "Carbon Fiber Composite Materials"
- Canon Electronics "Space-related Business"