[Summary]
There is growing speculation about an IPO regarding OpenAI, which develops ChatGPT.
Reuters reports that OpenAI is considering applying for a listing in the second half of 2026 and is eyeing a listing in 2027. The expected valuation is up to $1 trillion, and the amount raised is said to be at least $60 billion.
However, as of now, OpenAI is an unlisted company, and no official listing date, ticker, or public price has been announced.
What investors should be looking at is not only ``when will the company go public?''
The essence is that the OpenAI IPO will become a fundraising event for AI infrastructure investment, and what kind of ripples it will have on NVIDIA, Microsoft, SoftBank Group, and the AI startup market.
Expected timeline for OpenAI IPO
Current IPO observations are based on media reports.
According to Reuters, OpenAI is considering filing with securities authorities as early as the second half of 2026, and CFO Sarah Friar has indicated that the company is aiming to go public in 2027.
However, OpenAI has commented that ``IPO is not the focus and no date has been set.''
| Item | Observation details |
|---|---|
| Listing application | Possibility after the second half of 2026 |
| Listing timing | 2027 is likely, but not determined |
| Estimated valuation | Reported to be up to $1 trillion |
| Estimated procurement amount | Reported to be over $60 billion |
| Market | US market is dominant |
Therefore, instead of writing ``OpenAI listing decision'' as an investment article, it would be more accurate to use ``OpenAI IPO observation,'' ``listing preparation report,'' and ``2027 listing scenario.''
Background of IPO observation: Organizational reorganization completed
On October 28, 2025, OpenAI announced the completion of its organizational restructuring.
According to OpenAI's official statement, while the nonprofit OpenAI Foundation continues to control the for-profit corporation, the for-profit corporation has become a Public Benefit Corporation called OpenAI Group PBC.
OpenAI uses a structure in which a nonprofit organization controls a for-profit corporation and also holds stock.
This reorganization allows OpenAI to maintain its mission-focused governance while making it easier to raise larger amounts of capital.
| Structure after reorganization | Contents |
|---|---|
| OpenAI Foundation | Nonprofit organization. Controls OpenAI Group |
| OpenAI Group PBC | Commercial corporation. Public Benefit Corporation |
| Purpose | Balancing mission and commercial success |
| Meaning | Shifting to a structure that makes it easier to raise large amounts of capital |
The OpenAI IPO observation is an extension of this organizational restructuring.
Materials to boost IPO
1. Reduction of Musk litigation risk
On May 18, 2026, a US jury rejected Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI.
Reuters reports that the decision removes a major hurdle for OpenAI's IPO.
Litigation risk has not completely disappeared. It has also been reported that Musk may file an appeal.
Still, one of the biggest legal overhangs to OpenAI's capital policy and preparation for listing appears to have receded, at least for now.
2. Huge capital demand
OpenAI requires huge amounts of capital to develop and operate its giant AI models.
It's not just the GPU that you need.
- Data center
- Power
- Cooling
- Network *Cloud costs
- Research and development personnel
- Inference cost
If the IPO goes ahead, it is likely that much of the proceeds will go towards AI infrastructure investment.
In other words, OpenAI IPO is not just a tech IPO, but an AI infrastructure fundraising event.
3. SoftBank's large-scale investment
Reuters reported that SoftBank Group is in talks to invest up to an additional $30 billion in OpenAI.
The report also states that SoftBank completed a $41 billion investment in OpenAI in December 2025, giving it an 11% stake.
For this reason, an increase in OpenAI's corporate value is likely to be directly linked to SoftBank Group's NAV and evaluation as an investment company.
Risks that still remain
OpenAI's IPO observation has both strong expectations and great uncertainty.
The three main risks are:
| Risk | Contents |
|---|---|
| Huge investment burden | Heavy costs for AI infrastructure, GPUs, data centers, and electricity |
| Balance between profits and deficits | Possibility of large losses even if sales growth is fast |
| Valuation | Can the $1 trillion valuation be maintained |
Reuters reports that while OpenAI's annualized revenue is expected to reach about $20 billion by the end of 2025, its losses are also mounting.
In public markets, not only growth rates, but also gross margins, inference costs, cloud costs, and long-term operating margins are being looked at harshly.
In order for OpenAI to be valued at $1 trillion, it will need to be persuasive not only as a ``future of AI'' but also as a ``profit-generating company.''
Market Impact
Impact on NVIDIA
If OpenAI were to go public and raise a huge amount of funds, it would be a tailwind for demand for AI semiconductors and GPUs.
OpenAI's funding is likely to be a signal for NVIDIA to continue investing in AI infrastructure.
However, if OpenAI strengthens its proprietary chips and multi-vendor strategy, demand will not necessarily be concentrated solely on NVIDIA.
Still, in the short to medium term, GPU, network, HBM, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and data center related companies are likely to be viewed positively.
Impact on Microsoft
Microsoft is an important partner of OpenAI, and increasing OpenAI's corporate value will lead to expansion of investment value.
On the other hand, if OpenAI were able to raise its own funding from the public market, it could become less dependent on Microsoft for funding.
This has both positive and negative implications for Microsoft.
| How to view | Contents |
|---|---|
| Plus | OpenAI value rise, Azure demand, AI product competitiveness |
| Minus | Increased independence of OpenAI, re-evaluation of investment conditions |
Impact on AI startup market
If OpenAI were to go public at $1 trillion, it could boost the valuation multiple of all AI companies.
On the other hand, there is a risk that investment funds will be concentrated in giant companies like OpenAI, making the funding environment for small and medium-sized AI startups difficult.
The AI market is likely to become even more polarized in the future.
- Frontier AI companies that can attract huge amounts of capital
- AI app company that monetizes in specific areas
- Small and medium-sized AI companies struggling to raise funds
The OpenAI IPO could be an event that furthers this polarization.
Impact on SoftBank Group
SoftBank Group (9984) is the Japanese stock most likely to attract attention with OpenAI IPO.
SoftBank has been increasing its investment in OpenAI, and it is becoming more visible in the market as a proxy stock for OpenAI listing.
However, while this is an upward trend, it is also a risk of concentrated investment.
If OpenAI's valuation increases, SoftBank's expectations for unrealized gains and NAV expansion will increase.
On the other hand, if OpenAI's valuation declines or its IPO is postponed, SoftBank stock could easily come under downward pressure.
3 scenarios for SBG stock price
| Scenario | Conditions | Impact on stock price |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish | OpenAI will be listed with a high valuation in 2027 | Rising due to expectations for NAV expansion |
| Neutral | IPO postponement, buying time by raising additional funds | Range market |
| Bearish | Postponement of listing, decline in valuation, concerns about financing | Downward pressure |
What is important when looking at SoftBank is how much OpenAI's valuation is reflected in SBG's NAV.
As OpenAI's valuation approaches $1 trillion, SoftBank's premium as an AI investment company is likely to increase.
On the other hand, if OpenAI's losses increase or its valuation declines, it will become a discount factor.
Points that investors should pay attention to
Future checkpoints are as follows.
- OpenAI's official S-1 submission timing
- Estimated appraised value
- Amount raised
- Deficit size and profit growth rate *Relationship with Microsoft *SoftBank's additional investment amount
- Profitability of AI infrastructure investment
- Unique AI chip strategy
- Regulatory and litigation risks
Of particular importance is whether the $1 trillion valuation will be maintained.
A $1 trillion valuation means that OpenAI is not just an AI model company, but a company that will control OS, cloud, infrastructure, and app distribution in the AI era.
The biggest focus will be on whether the actual profit margin can keep up with these expectations.
Conclusion
OpenAI's IPO could be one of the biggest events in the AI market in 2026-2027.
However, as of now, the official listing date has not been announced, and the $1 trillion valuation is based on media reports.
The important thing for investors is not to jump in based on expectations alone.
It is necessary to determine whether OpenAI will be evaluated not only as the ``future of AI'' but also as a ``profit-making company.''
While this could be a major upside for SoftBank, there is also significant downside risk if its valuation collapses.
The OpenAI IPO may not be the end of the AI bubble, but the event that marks the true beginning of the era of AI infrastructure investment.
Reference information
- OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to $1 trillion valuation - Reuters via Investing.com
- Built to benefit everyone - OpenAI
- Our structure - OpenAI
- OpenAI defeats Elon Musk's lawsuit, removes obstacle to IPO - Reuters via BusinessWorld
- SoftBank in talks to invest up to $30 billion more in OpenAI - Reuters via Investing.com