Japanese stocks moving at the 159 yen level to the dollar | Assumed exchange rates and 1 yen sensitivity for 50 stocks in 10 major industries

[Summary]

In the foreign exchange market on the morning of May 20, 2026, the dollar-yen exchange rate was hovering around 159 yen.

In Japanese stocks, the difference between the expected exchange rate for this fiscal year's earnings forecasts announced by companies whose fiscal year ends in March and the actual exchange rate has become a major source of attention.

Many export companies have assumed the dollar/yen exchange rate for this fiscal year to be around 145 to 150 yen.

Therefore, if the 159 yen level continues, expectations for an improvement in performance will likely increase through foreign exchange gains and an increase in overseas profits converted to yen.

On the other hand, the weaker yen is not beneficial for all companies.

For companies that import raw materials, fuel, food ingredients, aviation fuel, LNG, etc., a weaker yen will increase costs.

In this article, we will summarize the assumed exchange rates and 1 yen sensitivities for 50 stocks in 10 major industries, and explain how to view stocks that have the advantage of a weak yen and stocks that have disadvantages of a weak yen.

Notes to check first

Exchange rate sensitivity may be clearly disclosed by the company, or may be expressed as a market estimate or rough estimate.

In addition, the actual impact on profits will vary greatly depending on the following factors:

Presence or absence of foreign exchange contracts/hedging
Impact of currencies other than the dollar, especially the euro and renminbi
Import costs of raw materials and fuel
Yen conversion of overseas subsidiary profits *Local production/local procurement ratio
Progress in price pass-through
Inventory valuation gain/inventory valuation loss

Therefore, the 1 yen sensitivity in this article should not be seen as an "absolute value for buying or selling decisions," but as a guideline for comparing exchange sensitivity by sector.

1. Automobiles and auto parts: Representative benefits of weak yen

Automobiles are the sector in which the benefits of a weaker yen are most likely to be recognized among Japanese stocks.

Since North America's sales ratio is high and the company's dollar-denominated profits are large, if the yen depreciates more than the expected rate, expectations for operating profit will likely rise.

Stock	Code	Assumed USD/JPY	Estimated profit impact when the yen depreciates by 1 yen	View
Toyota Motor Corporation	7203	150 yen	Operating income approximately +50 billion yen	Highest sensitivity. If it maintains 159 yen, there is a lot of room for upside
Honda Motor Co., Ltd.	7267	145 yen	Operating income +12 billion yen	The assumption is conservative and there is a large difference from the actual situation
Nissan Motors	7201	150 yen	Operating income +9 billion yen	North American sales and foreign exchange are the focus of profit improvement
SUBARU	7270	155 yen	Operating income +10 billion yen	North America ratio is high and sensitivity to profit scale is high
DENSO	6902	150 yen	Operating income +4 billion yen	Tailwinds from both increased production by finished car manufacturers and the weaker yen

Automobile stocks are not bought solely because of the weak yen.

It is also necessary to look at US sales, tariffs, EV investment, raw material costs, and sales incentives at the same time.

Still, the dollar-yen exchange rate at the 159 yen level is likely to support the performance of the sector as a whole.

2. Games and Entertainment: Tailwinds from foreign currency earnings and digital sales

Game and entertainment companies have a high ratio of overseas sales, and the weaker yen tends to increase yen-equivalent sales.

In particular, digital sales have low logistics costs and tend to generate high gross profits, so the benefits of a weaker yen tend to remain in profits.

Stock	Code	Assumed USD/JPY	Estimated profit impact when the yen depreciates by 1 yen	View
Nintendo	7974	145 yen	Ordinary income: +11 billion yen, operating income: +4 billion yen	Foreign currency-denominated assets and overseas sales are large, and foreign exchange gains are also a focus
Sony Group	6758	150 yen	Operating income +5 billion yen	Currency effects are complex in games, music, movies, and finance
Capcom	9697	150 yen	Operating income +1 billion yen	Overseas download sales are highly profitable and can easily benefit from the weaker yen
Square Enix HD	9684	150 yen	Operating income +600 million yen	Supporting earnings of global titles
Nexon	3659	147 yen level	Undisclosed, possibility of positive direction	High ratio of overseas markets such as South Korea, China, and North America

Game stock prices are influenced not only by exchange rates, but also by new titles, platform migration, and billing trends.

Although there is "room for upside" in the exchange rate, the main factors are the strength of the IP and the number of units sold.

3. Electronic components: demand for smartphones, EVs, AI servers and exchange rates

Electronic components have a high overseas sales ratio and are likely to benefit from the weaker yen.

However, the demand cycle for smartphones and EVs, growth in parts for AI servers, and whether inventory adjustments are being made are also important.

Stock	Code	Assumed USD/JPY	Estimated profit impact when the yen depreciates by 1 yen	View
Murata Manufacturing	6981	150 yen	Operating income +6 billion yen	Major MLCC. High overseas payment ratio
TDK	6762	148 yen	Operating income +4 billion yen	Overseas ratio is high for batteries and magnetic materials
Kyocera	6971	150 yen	Operating income +approximately 3 billion yen	Yen equivalent increase in semiconductor and electronic components
Nitto Denko	6988	150 yen	Operating income +2.5 billion yen	Mainly high-performance materials such as optical films
Alps Alpine	6770	145 yen	Operating income +1 billion yen	Focus on overseas sales of automotive electronic components

In this sector, there are strong stocks where exchange rate benefits and demand recovery occur at the same time.

I would like to check not only the weak yen, but also orders, inventory, and demand by customer.

4. General trading company: dual sensitivity of dollar-denominated assets and resources

Trading companies earn a lot of dollar-denominated profits from overseas operations and resource interests, so a weak yen tends to push up their net profits.

However, it is also necessary to look at resource prices, interest rates, and the impairment risk of the investment destination.

Stock	Code	Assumed USD/JPY	Estimated profit impact when the yen depreciates by 1 yen	View
Mitsubishi Corporation	8058	150 yen	Net income +3.5 billion yen	Dollar-denominated profits from resources and energy are effective
Mitsui & Co.	8031	150 yen	Net income approximately +4 billion yen	Highly sensitive to resources such as iron ore and LNG
ITOCHU Corporation	8001	150 yen	Net income +2.5 billion yen	Mainly non-resources, but overseas profits are also large
Sumitomo Corporation	8053	150 yen	Net income approximately +2.2 billion yen	Overseas expansion of transportation equipment, infrastructure, and resources
Marubeni	8002	150 yen	Net income +2 billion yen	Grains, electricity, and overseas businesses boosted by weak yen

In addition to the benefits of a weaker yen, trading company stocks are important in terms of shareholder returns and improved capital efficiency.

This is a sector where you should look at not only foreign exchange rates, but also share buybacks, dividends, and resource market conditions.

5. Precision and electrical equipment: brand power and overseas profits

Many companies in the precision and electrical equipment industry have a high ratio of overseas sales, and the weaker yen tends to increase yen-equivalent profits.

On the other hand, there are also parts procurement and overseas local costs, so it cannot be seen as a simple export benefit.

Stock	Code	Assumed USD/JPY	Estimated profit impact when the yen depreciates by 1 yen	View
Canon	7751	148 yen	Operating income +3 billion yen	Overseas ratio is high for offices, cameras, and exposure equipment
Fujifilm HD	4901	151 yen	Operating income +1.5 billion yen	Overseas expansion of medical, healthcare, and materials
Olympus	7733	150 yen	Operating income +1.2 billion yen	Overseas sales of medical equipment such as endoscopes are large
Panasonic HD	6752	150 yen	Operating income +4 billion yen	Focus on dollar-denominated profits such as North American automotive batteries
Ricoh	7752	149 yen level	Operating income +1.1 billion yen	Western office DX demand and foreign exchange are linked

In the precision and electrical machinery industry, companies that benefit from a weaker yen and undergo structural reforms are more likely to be reevaluated.

6. Heavy industry/defense/machinery: Overseas infrastructure and weak yen

Heavy industry/machinery has large overseas sales in areas such as large infrastructure, construction machinery, air conditioning, and agricultural machinery.

Although the weaker yen tends to be a tailwind, it is important to be aware that raw material costs, labor costs, and parts procurement costs will also rise.

Stock	Code	Assumed USD/JPY	Estimated profit impact when the yen depreciates by 1 yen	View
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries	7011	150 yen	Operating income +4 billion yen	Defense, gas turbines, and overseas infrastructure are tailwinds from the weaker yen
Daikin Industries	6367	150 yen, euro 160 yen	Operating profit +3.5 billion yen	World's leading air conditioner manufacturer. Significant influence of US and European currencies
Komatsu Ltd.	6301	145 yen	Operating income +4 billion yen	Major construction machinery company. If the assumption is 145 yen, there is a lot of room for upside
Hitachi	6501	145 yen	Operating income +3 billion yen	Overseas ratio of railways, energy, and IT infrastructure
Kubota	6326	148 yen	Operating income +2.5 billion yen	North American agricultural machinery and small construction machinery are susceptible to exchange rate effects

In addition to the weak yen, this sector also has themes such as defense, electricity, AI data centers, and infrastructure renewal.

7. Chemicals and high-performance materials: tug of war between dollar-denominated profits and raw material costs

In chemicals and materials, overseas sales are large for semiconductor materials, battery materials, carbon fiber, electronic materials, etc.

However, due to the effects of raw material fuel and naphtha prices, it is likely to become a tug-of-war between the benefits of a weaker yen and increased costs.

Stock	Code	Assumed USD/JPY	Estimated profit impact when the yen depreciates by 1 yen	View
Shin-Etsu Chemical	4063	145 yen	Net income +3.5 billion yen	Strong dollar-denominated profits from North American PVC and semiconductor wafers
Asahi Kasei	3407	145 yen	Operating income +1.5 billion yen	High overseas ratio of materials
Toray	3402	145 yen	Operating income +1.2 billion yen	Overseas expansion with carbon fiber and functional materials
Mitsui Chemicals	4183	145 yen	Operating income +1 billion yen	Overseas revenue from healthcare and high-performance products
Sumitomo Chemical	4005	145 yen	Operating income +1.5 billion yen	Supported by overseas earnings from information and electronic materials and pharmaceuticals

For chemical stocks, stock prices are influenced not only by the weaker yen, but also by spreads, product market conditions, and the progress of structural reforms.

8. Pulp/Paper/Energy: A weak yen is likely to be a headwind.

This is a sector where the disadvantages of a weaker yen are noticeable.

For companies that rely on imports for raw materials and fuel, a weaker yen will lead to higher costs.

Stock	Code	Assumed USD/JPY	Estimated profit impact when the yen depreciates by 1 yen	View
Oji HD	3861	155 yen	Operating income - around 700 million yen	There is also a profit on pulp conversion, but the increase in domestic costs is heavy
Nippon Paper Industries	3863	150 yen	Operating profit -about 500 million yen	Coal and wood chip import costs rising
TEPCO HD	9501	145 yen	Strong profit decrease factors	Increase in LNG and coal costs, time lag in fuel cost adjustment
Tokyo Gas	9531	145 yen	Ordinary profit: -1.5 billion yen	Heavy increase in LNG procurement costs
Idemitsu Kosan	5019	145 yen	Inventory evaluation is positive, actual demand increases costs	Difficult to manage margins due to high crude oil prices and weak yen

Stocks that have the disadvantage of a weak yen tend to rebound in the event of foreign exchange intervention or a reversal of the yen's appreciation.

For this reason, some investors view them as potential hedges in the opposite direction to stocks that benefit from a weaker yen.

9. Land and Air Transport: Tug of War between Inbound and Fuel Costs

While air transport benefits from inbound demand, it is burdened by the burden of aviation fuel and lease fees denominated in US dollars.

Rising fuel costs are also likely to put pressure on profits in land transportation.

Stock	Code	Assumed USD/JPY	Estimated profit impact when the yen depreciates by 1 yen	View
ANAHD	9202	145 yen	Operating income - around 1 billion yen	International flight revenue is positive, but fuel and lease fees are heavy
Japan Airlines	9201	145 yen	Operating income -about 800 million yen	Large impact of fuel costs and exchange rates
Yamato HD	9064	Real domestic	Strong profit decrease factors	Rising diesel oil costs and optimization of freight rates are issues
JR Tokai	9022	Real domestic	Neutral to slightly positive	Tug of war between inbound tourism and electricity costs
JR East	9020	Real domestic	Neutral to slightly negative	Rising electricity costs are a burden

In this sector, we need to look not only at foreign exchange rates but also at oil prices, fuel surcharges, passenger demand, and wage costs.

10. Dining out/Retail: Imported ingredients and domestic price transfer

In the restaurant and retail industries, profits are likely to be squeezed by rising costs of imported ingredients due to the weak yen.

However, for companies with overseas operations or companies with advanced price pass-through, the impact may be offset.

Stock	Code	Assumed USD/JPY	Estimated profit impact when the yen depreciates by 1 yen	View
Yoshinoya HD	9861	Undisclosed	Strong profit-decreasing factors	Heavy cost of imported ingredients such as US beef
Zensho HD	7550	Undisclosed	Strong profit-reducing factors	Tug-of-war between overseas store conversion profits and domestic food costs
Skylark HD	3197	Undisclosed	Strong profit decreasing factors	Food costs and utility costs put pressure on profit margin
Seven & i HD	3382	145 yen	North America plus, domestic minus	Yen conversion profit of U.S. business and domestic purchasing costs are mixed
Fast Retailing	9983	145 yen	Operating profit +1 billion yen, domestic purchasing is a headwind	Overseas sales are positive, domestic costs are heavy

In restaurants and retail, the ability to pass on prices is more important than the weak yen itself.

Companies that can maintain customer numbers even if they raise prices are more resilient.

Today's search scenario

The Nikkei average on May 20, 2026 is expected to be in the range of 60,400 yen to 61,100 yen due to the decline in US stocks and the wait for NVIDIA results.

Among these, the dollar-yen price around 159 yen gives rise to the following two views.

1. Export stocks as a line of defense

In a situation where export stocks are under pressure due to the decline in US stocks and the refraining from semiconductors, the difference from the exchange rate assumption may support the downside.

In particular, upward revisions are likely to be expected for automobiles, games, electronic parts, heavy industry, and trading companies if prices continue at the 159 yen level.

However, in some cases, exchange rate benefits are already factored into the stock price.

If you're going to buy, you'll want to check the stock price position after financial results, guidance for this fiscal year, exchange rate assumptions, and full-year progress.

2. Reverse rotation during intervention

The biggest risk is foreign exchange intervention.

If the dollar/yen rises above the 160 yen level and the government and the Bank of Japan become aware of yen-purchasing intervention, there is a possibility that the market will be dominated by a reversal.

Stocks that have the advantage of a weak yen are more likely to be sold to take profits, and stocks that have the disadvantage of a weaker yen are more likely to be bought back.

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It is important to build a portfolio with intervention risks in mind, rather than just buying stocks that benefit from a weak yen.

Summary

The 159 yen level to the dollar is a major turning point for Japanese stocks.

While this will create expectations for better performance for exporting companies, it will put pressure on profits for importing companies.

What investors should be looking at is not simply ``buying because the yen is weak.''

The following three points are important.

Difference between the company's assumed rate and the actual rate
Sensitivity to profit per 1 yen
Reverse rotation risk when the yen strengthens

In an exchange rate environment of 159 yen, it is easy to expect upward revisions in automobiles, games, electronic parts, trading companies, heavy industry, etc.

On the other hand, if the price approaches 160 yen, there will be a strong need for intervention, and there is a possibility that stocks with the advantage of a weaker yen will take profits and stocks with disadvantages of a weaker yen will rebound at the same time.

When looking at Japanese stocks on May 20, 2026, not only NVIDIA's financial results but also the distortion in the exchange rate of 159 yen to the dollar are equally important factors.

Reference materials

This article is for educational and informational purposes only, based on public information. It is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any specific security or financial product. Although care is taken with accuracy, the content and future investment outcomes are not guaranteed. Final investment decisions should be made at your own judgment and responsibility.