Great transformation of the energy market in 2027, read from prices, subsidies, and related stocks
[Summary]
Perovskite solar cells are a next-generation solar cell that is expected to be lightweight, flexible, and printable.
Conventional silicon solar cells are difficult to install,
- High-rise building wall
- Factory roof
- Glass surface
- Curved structure
- Small urban spaces
There is a possibility that it could be turned into power generation infrastructure.
What is important as an investment theme is not just renewable energy technology;
- Dependency on China
- Energy security *Japanese materials, chemistry, and film technology
- Electricity demand in the AI era
This is the point where they overlap.
However, current issues include durability, mass production costs, dependence on subsidies, and a lack of commercial experience.
In this article, we will summarize the market value of perovskite solar cells, subsidies, related stocks, and the outlook from 2027 to 2030 from an investor's perspective.
Why perovskite solar cells now?
The background is the global power struggle.
In the future world,
- A.I.
- Semiconductor
- EV
- Data center
- Robotics
It is expected that electricity demand will continue to increase due to the expansion of
In other words, in the next industrial competition,
Who can secure stable electricity?
is directly linked to national competitiveness.
Among these, perovskite solar cells are attracting attention as a power generation technology that can be directly integrated into urban areas and buildings.
What is perovskite solar cell?
Perovskite solar cells are a next-generation solar cell that uses materials with a special crystal structure.
Compared to conventional silicon solar cells, their biggest features are lightness and flexibility.
Comparison with conventional type
| Item | Silicon mold | Perovskite mold |
|---|---|---|
| Weight | Heavy | Easy to reduce weight |
| Flexible | Hard | Flexible design possible |
| Manufacturing | Mainly high temperature/large equipment | Printing type manufacturing is expected |
| Installation location | Centered on the roof/ground level | Room for expansion to walls, windows, and curved surfaces |
| Market stage | Mature market | Demonstration/social implementation phase |
| Main issues | Land constraints/dependence on China | Durability/mass production costs |
What is important is that it not only replaces existing solar power, but also converts "places that were previously unable to generate power" into power generating sites.
The real value is “urban power generation”
The essence of perovskite is not simply to improve power generation efficiency.
Possibility of converting urban space itself into power generation infrastructure
It is located in
Expected usage
- High-rise building wall *Glass window
- Factory exterior wall
- Roofs of gymnasiums and warehouses
- Commercial facilities *EV body
- Drone
- Wearable device
Conventional solar power has limitations in terms of weight and installation space.
However, if lightweight and flexible film-type electricity is put into practical use, urban buildings and infrastructure themselves will become power generating devices.
This is a theme that goes well with countries like Japan, which have little flat land and high urban density.
Why is the stock market so hot?
The reason why the stock market reacts to perovskite-related stocks can be summarized in one word:
Japan may be able to win in the renewable energy industry for the first time in a while
Chinese companies hold a large share of traditional silicon solar cells.
On the other hand, perovskite has not yet achieved mass production supremacy.
As a result, Japanese companies' strengths in materials, chemistry, film processing, precision coatings, and building materials integration are being reevaluated.
Why Japanese companies are strong
The reason why Japan is attracting attention is not only because of the power generation equipment itself.
We have strengths in multiple parts of our supply chain.
| Field | Japan's strengths |
|---|---|
| Iodine | Attention as one of the main raw materials |
| Chemical materials | Functional materials and sealing materials |
| Film | Lightweight and flexible substrate |
| Precision coating | Uniform film formation |
| Building materials | Incorporation into BIPV |
| Printing technology | Roll-to-roll manufacturing |
The Agency for Natural Resources and Energy explains that Japan is one of the world's leading producers of iodine, and that building a supply chain will also contribute to a stable supply of energy.
This context of ``domestic materials x next-generation batteries'' is why it is easy to become a theme in the stock market.
Subsidies and policy support are important
Perovskite solar cells are not yet a fully commercial self-driving market.
At present, government support and demonstration projects are important in order to advance social implementation.
Typically,
- NEDO's Green Innovation Fund
- Introduction support project by the Ministry of the Environment
- Measures to expand introduction by public-private council
- Support for the introduction of public facilities by local governments
and so on.
In particular, the Ministry of the Environment has announced support projects aimed at reducing power generation costs in the initial stage of introduction and creating models for social implementation.
From an investor's perspective,
Is it possible to move from the stage where verification is progressing with subsidies to the stage where it is profitable without subsidies?
is the main focus.
Related stocks and companies that are attracting attention
Investment themes include not only finished product manufacturers, but also materials, parts, building materials, construction, and demonstration companies.
Areas that are likely to be considered favorites
| Field | Points of interest |
|---|---|
| Chemical manufacturer | Power generation materials/sealing materials |
| Film companies | Lightweight substrates and protective materials |
| Building materials company | BIPV integration |
| Printing technology company | Mass production process |
| Power/Infrastructure | Demonstration/Introduction locations |
| Iodine related | Raw material supply theme |
Group of companies that are likely to attract attention in the market
- Sekisui Chemical
- Toshiba technology
- Panasonic series *AGC
- Sumitomo Chemical
- Fujifilm related
- Ricoh
- Daiwa House Industry
- Ise Chemical Industry
However, the stock prices of related stocks tend to fluctuate in advance of the theme, and it may take some time for them to actually contribute to profits.
Rather than buying something just because it's "related," you need to check the sales contribution, mass production timing, and profitability.
Meaning as a national strategy
Perovskites are more than just an environmental technology.
It is also a theme of energy security.
The current solar market is
- Panels made in China
- China supply chain
- China manufacturing capacity
It is a structure that is highly dependent on
Perovskites, on the other hand, have the potential to be combined with domestic materials and domestic manufacturing.
In other words,
The trump card for leaving China with solar power
It is easy to position it politically as such.
The biggest challenges are "durability" and "mass production"
While market expectations are high, the challenges are also clear.
Especially important is
- Deterioration rate
- Moisture resistant
- Long term durability
- Larger area *Mass production yield
- Power generation cost
- Safety of installation and construction
It is.
Even if excellent performance is achieved at the laboratory level, it will not become popular unless stable power generation can be achieved over a long period of time in commercial mass production.
NEDO is also working on construction guidelines and demonstration projects for implementation, and around 2027 will be a turning point in whether we can move from a "research theme" to a "social implementation theme."
How should we look at prices?
At present, perovskite solar cells are not mature mass-produced products.
Therefore, we are not yet at the stage where we can compare only on price, like with general household silicone panels.
What is important when looking at prices is
- Power generation cost
- Installation cost
- Lifespan
- Subsidy *Maintenance costs
- Size of place where it can be installed
It is.
In particular, if it can be placed on walls or lightweight roofs where conventional models cannot be installed, the value cannot be measured simply by the price per piece.
What will happen in 2027?
From 2025 to 2027,
Time to move from demonstration experiment to social implementation
It may become.
Assumed scenario
#### 1. Introduction of public facilities
There is a possibility that the system will be widely used in schools, gymnasiums, disaster prevention facilities, municipal facilities, etc.
It is also important that it is compatible with securing power during disasters.
#### 2. Solar cells integrated into building materials
As BIPV becomes more integrated with walls, windows, and roofing materials, solar cells will move away from "power generation equipment" and closer to "building materials."
#### 3. Introduction to urban areas
In urban areas where it is difficult to install conventional solar power, there may be an increase in the use of building walls and lightweight roofs.
How will the world change in 2030?
Around 2030, there is a possibility that the decentralization of power generation will progress.
The city generates electricity
- Bill
- car *Glass
- Factory *Public facilities
This is a world where electricity becomes a power generator.
Fusion with AI society
In the AI era, power consumption will increase.
This increases the value of technologies that can generate electricity close to the point of demand.
Next generation infrastructure export from Japan
If Japanese companies can take the lead in mass production and durability, perovskite has the potential to become not only a renewable energy technology, but also a next-generation infrastructure export theme from Japan.
Points that investors should look at
Our future focus will be on the following five areas.
| Highlights | Contents |
|---|---|
| Durability | Practical life and deterioration rate |
| Mass production | Larger area and yield |
| Subsidy | Continuity of policy support |
| Building material fusion | Implementation with BIPV/BAPV |
| Trends in China | International competition and price pressure |
Especially important is
Is it possible to break away from subsidy dependence?
It is.
If we can overcome this point, there is a possibility of moving from theme stocks to actual demand industries.
Summary
The race for perovskite solar cells is about more than just new technology development.
In an era where power demand increases due to AI, EV, and semiconductors,
Who will control the next generation power generation infrastructure?
This is a competition for energy supremacy.
If Japanese companies can leverage their strengths in materials, chemistry, film, printing, and construction materials, perovskites could become a ``Japanese revival theme.''
However, investors need to keep an eye on not only expectations but also durability, mass production, price, subsidy dependence, and timing of profitability.
From 2027 onwards, perovskites may become not just a theme stock, but an important theme that predicts Japan's industrial competitiveness.
Source/Reference
- [Agency for Natural Resources and Energy 6. Innovation towards realizing GX] (https://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/about/pamphlet/energy2024/06.html)
- [Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Public-Private Council for Expanding the Introduction of Next-Generation Solar Cells and Strengthening Industrial Competitiveness] (https://www.meti.go.jp/shingikai/energy_environment/perovskite_solar_cell/010.html)
- [3 new projects selected for NEDO Green Innovation Fund project “Next Generation Solar Cell Demonstration Project”] (https://www.nedo.go.jp/news/press/AA5_101885.html)
- NEDO film-type perovskite solar cell to be implemented in society
- [Ministry of the Environment has begun recruiting for projects to support the introduction of perovskite solar cells and to promote price reductions for solar power generation equipment, etc.] (https://www.env.go.jp/press/press_00623.html)