Japanese stock outlook for the week of May 25, 2026 | Nikkei average in the 63,000 yen range, a phase where AI enthusiasm and profit taking collide

[Summary]

The Japanese stock market is likely to have a rough week from Monday, May 25, 2026 to Friday, May 29, 2026.

On Friday, May 22nd, the previous weekend, the Nikkei Stock Average closed at 63,339.07 yen, up 1,654.93 yen from the previous day. It was a new all-time high based on the closing price, and the market was wondering if it could rise this much in one day.

The main focus is on AI and semiconductors, centered on SoftBank Group (9984). U.S. stock AI rally, Arm stock price rise, OpenAI listing expected, and expectations for an end to the U.S.-Iran war. The materials piled up all at once.

However, from here it gets a little difficult. This is a week where I want to see who will continue to buy at this high price rather than whether it will go up or down.

The outlook is strong. Overseas buyers also continue to buy. If Middle East risks recede, short covering will become more likely. You must have learned a lot about how to sell it.

Still, the Nikkei average is already in the 63,000 yen range. It is running in the short term. It would not be surprising to see some profit-taking selling at the beginning of the week.

The problem here is not just how to sell.

Individual investors who are waiting for a chance will be left behind and become anxious. Institutional investors who exclude AI will also find it difficult to compare with benchmarks. Short-term traders using futures create price ranges both above and below.

So this week, it's more about supply and demand than good or bad news. How far will SoftBank G pull the index? Will buying led by Nikkei futures spread to spot TOPIX? If you ignore this, you will misjudge the market price.

This week's Nikkei average is

61,500yen〜65,500yen

I will mainly look at.

The top price is expected to be 64,000 yen and then 65,000 yen. The focus is on whether the price can maintain the 63,000 yen level on the downside, or whether it can be bought at around 62,000 yen if it collapses.

The stronger the market, the last person to jump on it will be the most shaken.

This week is a week where the ability to chase top prices collides with the ability to sell to cool down the overheated market.

Japanese stocks last weekend: Nikkei average soared historically

The Nikkei Stock Average on May 22nd was 63,339.07 yen, up 1,654.93 yen from the previous day.

Yahoo! Finance's time series data also confirms that the high price on the same day was 63,432.41 yen, and the closing price was 63,339.07 yen. News outlets also summarized that there was buying mainly in AI/semiconductor related products on the same day.

Honestly, it's definitely strong.

However, this type of increase is likely to cause a rebound in the following week. If buybacks by sellers and follow-up purchases by buyers overlap, the price will rise suddenly, but if this is not followed by new purchases, short-term traders will quickly take profits.

The week of May 25th is the week to first see how the market will absorb this increase.

Initial discomfort: Only Nikkei is running ahead.

To be honest, if the price goes through 63,000 yen all at once, it feels like only the Nikkei average is running ahead.

If the prices of AI/semiconductors and Softbank G are strong, the Nikkei average will rise dramatically. However, there are probably many investors whose stock holdings have not risen that much. Although the index is at its highest value, the physical sensation is not that strong. This is the situation where discrepancies occur.

That's the highlight of this week.

Will TOPIX catch up? Or will the Nikkei average be the only strong index?

In order for institutional investors to become seriously bullish on a stock, it is a little difficult to rely solely on the AI ​​value of the stock. Funds will spread to banks, insurance, trading companies, domestic demand, and capital policy stocks, and the market will finally gain depth.

The market is strong. But I still don't fully trust it.

I think it's better to watch it at this temperature.

This week's focus 1: Will the AI rally led by SoftBank G continue?

SoftBank Group was at the center of the market push up last weekend.

Arm under the umbrella, OpenAI investment, AI infrastructure, semiconductors. Among current Japanese stocks, it is one of the stocks that has the most AI themes.

Regarding OpenAI, there are speculations in the market that the company is considering a listing application in the second half of 2026, and is eyeing a listing in 2027. SoftBank G is attracting attention for its large investment in OpenAI, and is likely to be the recipient of the AI ​​market price.

The issue here is not so much the size of the material, but how far in advance the stock price has been factored in.

AI theme is real. Generative AI, data centers, electricity, optical communications, robots. Actual demand is expanding.

However, stock prices move ahead of actual demand.

If SoftBank G continues to move higher, the Nikkei average will likely move towards 64,000 yen or 65,000 yen. Conversely, if the company sells to take profits, it will weigh on the entire index. The contribution to the Nikkei average is so large that half of it is an index event rather than an individual stock.

Short-term investors will not leave this type of stock alone.

Overseas investors buying the Nikkei average based on futures, CTAs following the index based on their contribution to the index, selling methods being followed, and individuals who missed the weekend. If these areas overlap, the price range will be even wider.

However, if it only grows upwards without increasing trading volume, it will be dangerous. This is because there is a possibility that the price is rising only due to futures and short covering, not new physical purchases.

This week's Japanese stocks will be largely influenced by SoftBank G's price movements. To put it a little exaggerated, the index is unlikely to collapse unless the company collapses. On the other hand, when the company collapses, the real test is whether other stocks can support it.

This week's focus 2: US-Iran deal expectations support downside, but not yet confirmed

The situation in the Middle East is also important.

Over the weekend, there were a number of reports that negotiations between the United States and Iran were progressing toward an end to the hostilities.

CNN reports that US President Trump said that ``negotiations in principle have been reached'' regarding an agreement to end the war with Iran, and also mentioned reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Axios also reported that Pakistan's military chief has arrived in Tehran, and there are moves toward an agreement between the United States and Iran that includes an end to the war and the start of talks.

This is a clear positive for the stock market.

Risk-off due to high oil prices, Strait of Hormuz risk, and geopolitical risks. If these decline, it will be easy for Japanese stocks to be bought back.

However, it is best not to make any decisions here either.

Reuters reports say that while there is a view that the agreement is almost at the final stage, there are also differences in how Iran perceives it. In other words, the market is not buying ``an agreement'', but the ``probability of reaching an agreement''.

This difference is huge.

If negotiations go well this week, the downside will become firmer. On the other hand, if a deal is delayed or uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz flares up again, some of the sense of security felt over the weekend will dissipate.

Geopolitical risks move quickly in price, both when they get better and when they get worse.

This week's focus 3: Will funds shift from Nikkei average led to TOPIX type?

Last weekend's rise was led by the Nikkei average.

Valued stocks, semiconductors, AI, Softbank G. When these stocks with high index contribution are bought, the Nikkei average moves rapidly.

However, in order for the market to continue for a long time, it is necessary to expand your search.

This is what I personally want to see the most this week.

Will funds flow to TOPIX-type laggard stocks?

By mid-May, the fiscal year ended March 31, 2018 had almost completed its fiscal year end. Dividend increases, share buybacks, PBR improvement measures, and room for upside to conservative company forecasts. Stocks with these characteristics are likely to be picked up when the index's enthusiasm dies down.

In particular, I would like to look at the following areas:

• Stocks that benefit from rising interest rates, such as banks and insurance
• National policy theme stocks such as defense and heavy electrical equipment
• High dividend/dividend increasing stocks
• Related stocks of AI infrastructure
• Domestic demand stocks that had good results but lagged behind the index-driven market

A market where only the Nikkei average is going up is a little dangerous.

To be honest, a market where only Nikkei moves ahead may not be as strong as it appears. There is little benefit for investors who do not own stocks with high values, and it is difficult for institutional investors to invest in indexes alone.

If TOPIX catches up, the quality of the market will improve a little.

On the other hand, if TOPIX remains sluggish and only the Nikkei average moves towards 64,000 yen or 65,000 yen, I would be a little wary of that. Although it is strong, the market is somewhat weak.

This week's Nikkei average range

The expected range for this week's Nikkei average is as follows.

61,500yen〜65,500yen

This week it is easy to move up and down.

If the buying continues, 64,000 yen may become a passing point. If there is a sell-off, even if the price falls below 63,000 yen, profit-taking by short-term investors may suddenly increase.

The important thing to remember is that just because it's a bull market doesn't mean it's going up every day.

In fact, in the market after a new high, the shallower the push, the harder it is to buy, and the deeper the push, the scarier it is.

This is where your mental health will be tested.

10 stocks to watch

Here are the stocks to watch for this week's themes.

This is not a purchase recommendation.

Organize it as a "thermometer" to see where market funds are heading.

However, if you look at 10 stocks with the same weight, the focus will be blurred.

This week's focus will be on Softbank G, Furukawa Electric, and MUFG. AI momentum, spread to AI infrastructure, and cycle to TOPIX value. It is easier to understand the current market position by looking at these three factors.

Preferred stocks and high dividend stocks are more of a refuge than a mainstay. If you confuse that, you will read this article incorrectly.

Generative AI/Physical AI related

AI-related topics are currently the most likely to attract funds in Japanese stocks.

However, the higher the stock price, the greater the price movement. Having a strong theme and being rewarded for buying it now are two different things.

Softbank Group (9984)

If you're looking at Japanese stocks this week, start with SoftBank G.

OpenAI, Arm, AI infrastructure. The material is strong. However, expectations are high.

If the company goes up, the Nikkei average will be pushed up strongly. Conversely, if the index collapses, the overall mood of the index cools.

What investors should look at is not the rate of increase itself, but whether the buying continues along with the volume.

If the volume decreases here, it may just be due to short-term muscle rotation. On the other hand, if you buy immediately after pushing, it will be even more difficult to sell.

SoftBank G is more like a temperature gauge than a thermometer of this week's market price.

FANUC (6954)

FANUC is a company with a global presence in robots, FA, and NC for machine tools.

In the context of NVIDIA's physical AI, major companies such as Fanuc, ABB, and Yaskawa Electric are reported to be proceeding with development using NVIDIA technology.

If AI spreads beyond screens to factories and robots, stocks like Fanuc will be easy to see.

However, FA-related matters are also affected by the Chinese economy and capital investment cycle. This is not a stock that will rise solely due to the AI ​​theme.

Furukawa Electric (5801)

Furukawa Electric is a stock that is easy to see in the context of optical components, optical fiber, and electric wire infrastructure for AI data centers.

The company's materials also indicate continued strong demand for AI and data centers, as well as product development and sales expansion for 800G and 1.6T.

If the AI ​​market expands not only to semiconductors but also to optical communications, electric power, cooling, and electric wires, funds will likely be directed toward peripheral infrastructure stocks such as Furukawa Electric.

However, once a stock like this becomes a theme, its price moves quickly.

What we want to see here is the time difference between expectations and profit contribution. Even if there is real demand for AI data centers, there are some stocks whose stock prices will raise their P/E ratios first, and the actual profit contribution will not be until the next fiscal year.

The theme is strong. The question is how far the stock price is paying in advance.

This is a phase where investors who can't wait for a push can easily grab a high price. When looking at Furukawa Electric, I want to look at not only the momentum of the news, but also orders, profit margins, and room for upside in the company's plans.

Interest rate rise, national policy, large-scale defensive measures

In addition to AI, rising interest rates and national policy themes are also likely to receive funding.

This is also a place to escape when the index gets rough.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306)

MUFG is one of the large-cap stocks that is most likely to be exposed to rising interest rates.

In the megabank financial results for the fiscal year ending March 2026, it was reported that net profits for the three megabanks had improved to a record high level due to rising domestic interest rates.

However, it's not just a matter of buying bank stocks because of rising interest rates.

From here, we can see credit costs, overseas credit, valuation losses on government bonds, increases in deposit interest rates, and room for share buybacks. Bank stocks are already being revalued. Rather than a fresh theme, it's a strong but crowded theme.

Dai-ichi Life Holdings (8750)

Dai-ichi Life HD is an insurance stock that can easily be viewed in the context of rising interest rates, asset management, and shareholder returns.

When interest rates rise, insurance stocks become more conscious of improving the investment environment. In addition, if the capital policy and dividend policy are evaluated, it is easy to invest in the stock as a value stock.

However, insurance stocks do not move solely on interest rates. New contracts, cancellations, overseas business, foreign exchange, asset management risks. There are many items to see.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011)

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is a large-sized stock that is responsible for multiple national policy themes, including defense-related, energy, space, aviation, and nuclear power.

In times of heightened geopolitical risk, defense-related stocks tend to be bought, and can also be seen in the context of energy security and GX.

However, this is also a brand that has been bought quite a bit.

Although the national policy theme is strong, the more expectations are built up on a stock, the more likely it is that profits will be taken if the stock's financial results or orders fall short.

High dividends, benefits, popular with individual investors

When market prices are at their highest, not only short-term funds but also individual investors' need for livelihood protection becomes stronger.

Dividends, benefits, and inflation protection. These stocks tend to be bought to a certain extent even if the index is in trouble.

However, it's not the main character this week.

If you only look at premium stocks during a week when AI and semiconductors are on the rise, you won't be able to keep up with the speed of the market. Conversely, these stocks are not stocks to buy, but stocks to watch to see if your money will escape when the index goes bad.

Aeon (8267)

Aeon is a brand with very popular preferential treatment.

The owner's card is an easy-to-understand lifestyle protection benefit for people who use Aeon on a daily basis. In times of inflation, these ``preferential benefits that actually benefit household finances'' will hit home for individual investors.

When looking at stock prices, you want to look at profit margins as a retailer, consumption trends, wage increases, private brand products, and financial businesses.

The company is too large to be evaluated solely on benefits.

Skylark Holdings (3197)

Skylark HD is a standard for dining out benefits.

The advantage is that there are many stores where you can use it, such as Gusto, Bamiyan, and Jonathan. This is one of the easiest dining out benefits to digest.

However, restaurant stocks have heavy labor and food costs. Even if the number of customers returns, the market will not appreciate it unless the profit margin returns.

It is important to look at the popularity of preferential treatment and performance evaluation separately.

NYK Line (9101)

Nippon Yusen is a stock that can easily be viewed as a large-capital stock with high dividends.

Shipping market conditions have been adjusting after peaking out, but factors include car carrier, LNG, container market conditions, weak yen, and shareholder returns.

However, shipping stocks are market stocks.

If you buy based only on the dividend yield, the stock price will fluctuate greatly due to changes in dividend forecasts or deterioration in market conditions. Even with high dividends, the performance fluctuations are large.

Metaplanet (3350)

Metaplanet is a stock that is attracting market attention with its Bitcoin holding strategy.

In March 2026, it has been reported that the company will expand its shareholder benefit program and introduce a tier program based on the number of shares held and holding period.

However, this is a completely different price movement.

Bitcoin price, supply and demand, SNS, short-term funds, preferential materials. Strongly speculative. It's not a brand that you can feel safe just because it ranks high.

Personally, I don't put it in the center of my portfolio, but rather it's a stock I look at based on the amount of risk it takes.

This week's investment stance

This week is good to be bullish, but not the week to be sloppily bullish.

The Nikkei average has updated its highest value. The themes of AI and semiconductors are strong. Geopolitical risks have also receded for the time being.

But after the surge.

If you try to chase it with all your might, you'll lose your mental health just by lowering it a little bit.

The more people who can't buy it, the more anxious they are. This is so true.

Once the price reached the 63,000 yen level, I began to think that it might go up even further. But when you get there, you want to throw just a 2% drop. This is how most people end up losing money even when the market is strong.

Practically speaking, I would like to be aware of the following three things.

1. Rapidly rising stocks wait for a push.
2. AI/semiconductors will reduce position size
3. Check whether funds will spread to TOPIX type before increasing

Position size is especially important for stocks with fast price movements such as Softbank G, Furukawa Electric, and Metaplanet.

It is more difficult to hold on to a stock that can withstand a decline than it is to bet on a stock that will go up.

I think the difference will be more noticeable this week.

If you look at it in the short term, it tends to be rough for 30 minutes after arriving on Monday and Tuesday. This is the time when futures, valued stocks, short covering, and profit taking collide. Rather than jumping in there, it would be more calm to wait and see if the buying remains from the latter half of the first market to the second half.

Summary

The Japanese stock market for the week of May 25, 2026 is in a phase where the pursuit of higher prices from the Nikkei average of 63,000 yen and the profit-taking after a sharp rise collide.

AI and semiconductors will continue to play a leading role.

If SoftBank G is strong, the Nikkei average may test the 64,000 to 65,000 yen range. If expectations for a US-Iran deal progress, the decline in geopolitical risks will also provide support.

On the other hand, the sharp rise last weekend was quite large. In the short term, there is a feeling of overheating.

What we need to watch this week is not just whether the Nikkei average will rise further.

Will the search expand to the TOPIX type? Will funds go to banks, insurance, and defense? Among AI-related fields, will it expand not only to semiconductors but also to electric wires, electric power, and robots?

Another question is who is suffering.

Will there be more sales methods? Will individuals who are waiting for the best chance start buying in haste? Will institutional investors become unable to ignore AI? Or will short-term investors come to take profits once and for all?

The direction of the market is determined not only by news, but also by the pain of these participants.

The market is strong.

However, if only the Nikkei average remains strong, the market is still a little thin.

If TOPIX catches up, it will feel more authentic. If we can't catch up, I'd like to be a little suspicious of the enthusiasm for prices in the 63,000 yen range.

That's why it's a week where you can't miss out on how to chase.

Source/Reference materials

• Yahoo! Finance: Nikkei Stock Average Time Series Data
• Newsweek Japan Edition/Reuters: Nikkei average continues to increase significantly, buying in AI/semiconductor related
• Axios: OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing
• Bloomberg: SoftBank Group Shares Surge Almost 20% on OpenAI, SB Energy IPOs
• CNN.co.jp: Mr. Trump has reached an agreement in principle with Iran
• Axios: Pakistan field marshal in Tehran to try to seal U.S.-Iran deal
• Reuters/MarketScreener: Trump says framework of Iran deal largely negotiated
• [Robostar: Major companies such as FANUC accelerate physical AI development with NVIDIA technology] (https://robotstart.info/article/2026/03/19/381706.html)
• [Furukawa Electric: Materials related to demand for AI and data centers] (https://www.furukawa.co.jp/ir/library/briefing/pdf/2025/20250604_communication.pdf)
• [FinTech Journal: Three megabanks, financial results for the fiscal year ending March 2026] (https://www.sbbit.jp/article/fj/185414)
• [CoinPost: Metaplanet expands shareholder benefits] (https://coinpost.jp/stock/metaplanet-shareholder-benefits-202603/)