[Summary]
It is natural to view Makiya (9890)'s stop high on May 27, 2026 as a move based on the capital and business alliance with Kobe Bussan (3038), rather than being driven by supply and demand due to the absence of raw materials.
Kobe Bussan will acquire 1,400,000 Makiya shares at 1,198 yen per share, and the voting rights ratio after investment will be 19.8%. The market evaluated this not as a mere extension of Gyomu Super FC, but as a sign of reorganization in which Gyomu Super itself would invest capital in mid-sized regional retailers.
However, the treasury stock TOB price was 1,031 yen, and it skyrocketed to the market stop level on May 27th. In the short term, the value of the partnership is factored in far in advance, and the risk of fluctuations is high.
First, the conclusion
The essence of Makiya's sharp rise this time is not the supply and demand market for local retail stocks, but the expectation that it will form a quasi-group with Kobe Bussan.
Kobe Bussan is a company that has been expanding business supermarkets nationwide using a franchise method. Makiya is based in Shizuoka, and has operated stores such as Espot, Potato, and Mummy, as well as operating a business supermarket franchise.
This relationship progresses from a mere business relationship to a capital relationship. This must have looked great to the market.
The material is a capital and business alliance with Kobe Bussan, which was announced after the close of trading on May 26th. Rather than looking at the short-term price range, it is easier to understand the meaning of this market price by first checking the partnership scheme itself.
Points of partnership scheme
The numbers to keep in mind for this disclosure are as follows.
| Item | Contents |
|---|---|
| Number of shares underwritten by Kobe Bussan | 1,400,000 shares |
| Underwriting price | 1,198 yen per share |
| Total investment | 1,677 million yen |
| Voting rights ratio after investment | 19.8% |
| Treasury stock TOB price | 1,031 yen per share |
| Treasury stock TOB period | May 27, 2026 to June 23, 2026 |
| Planned execution date of Kobe Bussan's stock acquisition | July 15, 2026 |
Makiya will acquire the shares held by Makiri, the founding family's asset management company, through the treasury stock TOB. We will then dispose of some of our treasury stock to Kobe Bussan through third-party allotment.
The market's favorable impression was not simply because Kobe Bussan was buying shares.
This is because the company's structure is to absorb the needs for sale of major shareholders through a treasury stock TOB and hand over a portion of the proceeds to Kobe Bussan, thereby simultaneously dealing with potential selling pressure and bringing in strategic shareholders. Small-cap stocks tend to react quite strongly when this kind of supply-demand adjustment and business alliances occur together.
What was evaluated?
Kobe Bussan's IR states that the reason for the partnership is to strengthen the cooperative relationship based on the franchise agreement in terms of both capital and business.
The main content of the business partnership is quite specific.
| Evaluation points | Market perspective |
|---|---|
| Introducing Makiya's outpack products to the prepared food business "Chisosai" | Expectations for strengthening prepared food and improving gross profit margin |
| Consideration of expanding Chisasuna store openings | Thoughts on utilizing store network and expanding business format |
| Joint purchasing | Lower purchasing costs, economies of scale |
| Considering opening a Gyomu Super store | Expanding FC operations and utilizing existing know-how |
| 19.8% owned by Kobe Bussan | Backed by a major company, quasi-group premium |
Makiya is a mid-sized local retailer. If operated independently, the burden of personnel costs, logistics costs, purchasing conditions, and store investment can easily become heavy.
If Kobe Bussan's private brand products, purchasing network, franchise management know-how, and delicatessen business are included in this, the market will first see an improvement in profit margins.
This market price is not just a result of ``preferred stocks being bought.'' Rather, what the market is seeing is a reappraisal of local retail stocks being included in the business super economy.
However, the gap with TOB price is large
What concerns me most in the short term is the difference between the treasury stock TOB price and the market stock price.
Treasury stock TOB price is 1,031 yen. On the other hand, the market on May 27th was bought to the stop high level.
This means that companies are not bought based on the TOB price itself, but rather that the market is evaluating the value of the partnership with Kobe Bussan, the adjustment of supply and demand, and future synergies.
Of course, partnerships are a good thing. However, the story changes when short-term muscle is concentrated.
- Profit selling
- Short-term funds based on price margining
- Expansion of credit purchases
- Material blank waiting for partnership progress
Due to these factors, stock prices tend to be volatile both upwards and downwards.
Rather than looking at the idea that the market will go up forever because of the positive factors, it would be more appropriate to view the market as having incorporated all the positive factors all at once, which is more appropriate given the current temperature.
The main business is not yet experiencing explosive growth.
For the full year ending March 2026, Makiya had consolidated sales of 93,673 million yen and operating income of 2,133 million yen. While sales increased by 4.7% year on year, operating income decreased by 5.9%.
Kobe Bussan's IR materials also state that Makiya's consolidated sales for the fiscal year ending March 2026 will be 93,044 million yen and the consolidated operating income will be 2,133 million yen for the most recent three fiscal years. Operating profit margin is in the 2% range.
In other words, Makiya is currently a company whose sales are increasing, but its profit margin is not improving all at once.
The current rise in stock prices is a move that prioritizes future profit margin improvement rather than past performance. This is quite important.
Points to watch in the medium term
When looking at medium-term investments, the focus is not on shareholder benefits or short-term supply and demand.
What we need to see is whether the partnership with Kobe Bussan will be reflected in the income statement.
| Highlights | Reasons to watch |
|---|---|
| Gross profit margin | Will joint purchasing and utilization of PB products be effective |
| Prepared food ratio | Is it possible to increase profit margin with side dishes and out-packed products |
| Opening a Gyomu Super Store | How far can a high-turnover, low-priced business format be expanded? |
| SG&A expense ratio | Can personnel costs, logistics costs, and store operating costs be absorbed |
| ROE | PBR reassessment requires improvement of capital efficiency |
| Dividend policy | Is there evidence of profits to continue increasing dividends |
For the market to really continue to value it, the story of the partnership is not enough.
Will the gross profit margin, operating profit margin, operating cash flow, and store efficiency improve in one or two years? Only when this is confirmed can we move from a mere speculative market to an actual market.
Investment stance
Our current investment stance can be summarized as follows.
| Investment type | View |
|---|---|
| Short-term | There is a strong sense of overheating after the stop high, so be wary of wild swings |
| Mid-term | Phase to verify the synergies of partnership with Kobe Bussan based on financial results |
| Long term | Possibility of being reevaluated as part of the business super economy |
Personally, this material is quite important.
This is because the context of how Kobe Bussan will reorganize its regional distribution and FC network has emerged, rather than the story of the growth of local retail on its own.
However, the stock price is already well ahead of that expectation. In order to continue to be purchased from here, it is not enough just to have ``Kobe products included''. Joint purchasing, prepared foods, business supermarket openings, and profit margin improvements need to be visible in numbers.
Summary
Makiya's stop high on May 27, 2026 is not driven by demand and supply due to the absence of materials, but is a market price mainly due to the capital and business alliance with Kobe Bussan.
The market immediately praised Kobe Bussan's 19.8% stake, the prospect of becoming the company's largest shareholder, the synergies with Gyomu Super FC operations, joint purchasing, strengthening of prepared foods, and the improvement in supply and demand due to a reduction in free float.
On the other hand, the market share price has been bought to the limit high level against the treasury stock TOB price of 1,031 yen, which is expected in the short term.
What we really need to watch in the medium term is not the partnership announcement itself. These are gross profit margin, operating profit margin, ROE, cash flow, business supermarket openings, and deepening the relationship with Kobe Bussan.
If these numbers move, Makiya may be reconsidered as not just a local retail stock, but a reorganized stock in the business super economic zone. On the other hand, if the numbers do not move, this sharp rise will end up being speculation.
Source/Reference materials
- Kobe Bussan “Notice regarding capital and business alliance with Makiya Co., Ltd.”, date of disclosure: 2026-05-26
- Makiya "Acquisition and tender offer of treasury stock, disposal of treasury stock through third-party allotment, capital and business alliance with Kobe Bussan, changes in the largest shareholder and other affiliated companies", disclosure date: 2026-05-26
- Makiya "Summary of Financial Results for the Fiscal Year Ending March 2026 [Japanese Standards] (Consolidated)", Disclosure date: 2026-05-12
- Confirmation date: 2026-05-27