[Summary]
The advantage of knowing the efficient market hypothesis is that it does not guarantee profits, but that it makes it easier to organize the materials you need to look at.
The advantage of knowing the efficient market hypothesis is that it does not guarantee profits, but that it makes it easier to organize the materials you need to look at.
In actual investing, we first start by understanding the basis of index investing. However, we cannot overlook the fact that we accept that the market is always right.
In this article, we will organize the benefits of knowing the efficient market hypothesis not as "knowledge" but as steps to confirm before buying or selling. Don't rush to conclusions, read according to your financial amount and time horizon.
First, let's divide by the merits of knowing the efficient market hypothesis.
When looking at the benefits of knowing the efficient market hypothesis, first determine what you want to judge. The information you need will change depending on whether you want to know the meaning, confirm before buying or selling, or review your current holdings.
Especially for beginners in investing, the easier the words are, the more they tend to take them as a conclusion. The benefits of knowing the efficient market hypothesis are not enough to make a decision. If you want to check it, it is more realistic to look at it in conjunction with fund management, holding period, and opposing materials.
Don't overestimate the benefits of knowing the efficient market hypothesis.
If you want to see the benefits of knowing the efficient market hypothesis, first of all, make narrow assumptions. It is important not to mix up whether you are talking about the market as a whole, individual stocks, NISA or long-term funds.
If you check the following points, things will be much more organized.
| Axis to check | What to see with the benefits of knowing the efficient market hypothesis |
|---|---|
| purpose | What do you use to judge? |
| Time axis | Which is closer to short-term trading, long-term holding, or NISA? |
| basis | Which one is more important: price, business performance, interest rates, exchange rates, or psychology? |
| risk | When things go the other way, where should you look again? |
| action | Will it lead to buying, selling, or doing nothing? |
Points that can easily cause trouble in making decisions
The benefits of knowing the efficient market hypothesis can cause you to stumble, not only when you don't have enough knowledge. In fact, there are situations where we interpret something conveniently because we know a little bit about it.
- Decide first what you will be able to see with the benefit of knowing the efficient market hypothesis.
- Differentiate between conditions that bring about benefits and conditions that do not.
- When expectations are too high, test with a small amount
- Write down the terms of withdrawal before considering profits.
The important thing here is not to settle on a single correct answer based solely on the merits of knowing the efficient market hypothesis. In investment, the meaning of the same material changes depending on the market, holding period, and amount of funds. When in doubt, prioritize confirmation over conclusion.
Checklist before buying and selling
Before using the merits of knowing the efficient market hypothesis as a basis for making an actual decision, check at least these five points.
- Can you explain in one sentence the purpose of seeing the benefits of knowing the efficient market hypothesis?
- Have you confirmed one or more countermeasures or failure conditions?
- Are you investing your living funds or money that will be used soon?
- Have you decided in advance the criteria for cutting losses, taking profits, and continuing to hold stocks?
- Are you making judgments based only on social media or short headlines?
Checklists are simple, but they prevent you from adding reasons after making a decision. The purpose of confirming the benefits of knowing the efficient market hypothesis is not to act faster, but to reduce unnecessary judgment errors.
Summary
The benefit of knowing the efficient market hypothesis is that it provides information for organizing investment decisions. Even if you read it as an advantage, treating it as a stand-alone buy/sell signal will make your judgment difficult.
The points to keep in mind are as follows.
- See the benefits of knowing the efficient market hypothesis Decide the purpose first
- Do not mix time axis and amount of funds
- Check not only good materials but also negative materials
- When using NISA and long-term funds, consider how to handle losses
- When in doubt, reduce your position or postpone it.
The more knowledge you have, the safer it seems, but in the market it can become dangerous if you use it incorrectly. The advantage of knowing the efficient market hypothesis is that it is not a word that forces you to make a hasty decision, but rather it should be treated as a tool to help you pause before buying or selling.