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Interest observation is a market forecast that the central bank will raise interest rate in the future.
If the interest rate rises, the movement of shares, bonds, and exchange rate changes.
In this article, we will organize why interest observation is important, the impact of each asset, and the points that invest beginners should check.
What is interest observation?
Interest observation is the market forecast when the central bank raises policy interest.
FRB is a representative example for Japan and Japan.
Interest rate is the cost of borrowing money.
When the interest rate rises, companies and individuals are less likely to borrow.
As a result, it works in the direction of suppressing the overheating of the economy.
Why the market reacts
The investment market will move not only in the current state but also in future forecasts.
In other words, stock prices and foreign exchanges may change before they are actually gained.
For example:
- Go to next month
- Strong inflation
- Employment
In this information, investors will buy and sell in advance.
As such, the market of shares may react immediately when the interest observation is increasing in the news.
What happens with interest observation?
ing the impact of each asset is as follows:
| Property | Main Effects |
|---|---|
| Shares | Easy to drop |
| Bonds | Easy to down |
| Deposit rate | Easy to climb |
| 通貨 | High interest rate countries |
Of course, actual value movement depends on corporate performance, economic, foreign exchange, and geopoli。 risks.
However, the interest rate is a very important premise in investment, as it reflects many asset prices.
Reasons why stock prices are lower
Interest observation makes it easy to sell growth shares.
Reason 1 Improving corporate profit
Increased borrowing costs
Increases the burden of capital investment and business expansion, making it easier to expect profit growth.
Reason 2 The future value goes down
The stock price is evaluated by dividing future profit into current value.
When the interest rate rises, the value of future profit is less appreciated.
In particular
- High Tech
- JAPANESE
- High PER Brand
tends to be easy to understand.
Reasons why bond prices fall
Bonds are assets that are easy to move in the opposite direction of interest rates.
When a new bond of high interest is issued than an existing bond, the attractiveness of old bonds decreases.
As a result, the price of existing bonds becomes easier to fall.
This is a point where beginners can easily misunderstand.
Common misunderstandings
If interest rate rises, bonds will be held
This is half the answer.
It is important to buy new bonds, but the price of the bonds already owned will be easier to fall down.
Three indicators to be considered for investment beginners
The following three are important to understand interest observations:
1 Inflation rate
If the price rises strongly, the central bank becomes more profitable.
The longer the inflation, the greater the alert for financial金融ing.
2 Employment statistics
Inflation pressure increases by increasing金s and increasing demand.
For this reason, gain observation may be increased if 統計 statistics are strong.
3 Message from the Central Bank
The market will move greatly in the comments of FRB Chairs and Nissin Governors.
In particular, future感s and inflation are focused.
Approach of interest-oriented
It’s important that you don’t sell anything.
Risk allocation
For example:
- Re large symbols of value movement
- Increase cash ratio
- Strengthen Decentralized Investment
- Use short-term bonds
Example
In terms of interest, it is difficult to avoid in investments because the value movement of the entire asset is rough.
Core Satellite Strategy
Core Satellite Strategy is a way to divide assets into stable and aggressive parts.
| 区分 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| Core | Index and Bonds |
| Satellite | Growth and Theme Investment |
In the interest section, the stability of the core part is important.
Even if you have a growth strain in the satellite part, it is important to not take too much risk.
Common misunderstandings
| misunderstanding | In fact |
|---|---|
| In the case of interest observation, the stock is always lowered | There is a stock that rises depending on the performance and the viewpoint |
| Interest rate rise is bad for all industries | Banks may be winding |
| Bonds are always earned by interest rate rise | The price of bonds held is lower |
| Sell all before gain | 資産ment of asset allocation is important |
- Interest observation forecast future interest rate rise
- Significant impact on stocks, bonds and exchanges
- Growth strains are particularly easy to understand
- Markets move from before real interest
- Beginners confirm inflation,, central bank statements
The most important thing in investment is to adjust the asset allocation according to the interest rate environment.
It is fundamental to continue decentralized investment from a long-term perspective, not only by short-term movement.
■ Concept
Understand how the market動くs with interest observations in 3 seconds.
■ Text
Main: Is it possible to observe interest?
Sub: Why interest rate rises to move the market
■ Color scheme
Navy×Red×White
■ Configuration
Left: Upward interest rate graph Central: Big "Shuan"? Right: lower chart and bond icon