What is the lowest stock month? Notes from past data

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The month in which the stock is easy to down depends on the market and the aggregate period.

However, in the past data of U.S. stock, it is often spoken as a weak month in September.

In October, it is also a month in which investors tend to become wary mode because of the memory of historical crashes such as Black Monday.

On the other hand,

No investment decisions on a specific month

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Actual stock prices are based on many factors, such as interest rates, economics, corporate profits, financial results, politics and investor requirements.

In this article, we will explain the month that the strain is said to be easy to fall, and the idea that beginners should know.

It's a weak month

In the U.S. stock market, it is said that September is weak.

Typically, the following market anomaly.

• September Anomaly
• Cell in May
• Summer

Anomaly is a trend that is easy to repeat in the past, although it is not fully explained in a clear theory.

For example, in the long-term data of S&P 500, there are many analysis that the average return of September is weaker than other months.

However, this does not mean that “every September falls.”

Why is September weak?

The following are the reasons why September is weak:

• Summer Vacation
• Rebalance of institutional investors
• Funding for the Year End
• Warning before financial results and interest rate events
• Deterioration of investor requirements

In particular, U.S. stocks may be explained that market participants return at the end of the summer vacation, and sales may be easier by adjusting positions.

However, the market will rise in September.

In other words, the monthly anomaly is a reference information and is not the main act of buying and selling decisions.

October is a strong memory of crash

October is known as a moon with many historical crashes.

Here are some examples:

Therefore, in October, it is easy to have the impression that "the moon that is easy to fall out".

However, it is not a weak month in October.

However, in the past, there is a market that was suitable for the end of the year.

It is important to confirm interest rates, economics, corporate profits and credibility at that point, not October itself.

Differences between Japanese and US stocks

The monthly trend will change in Japanese and US stocks.

Japanese

Japan shares are easily affected by:

• Financial Results for March and September
• idends and Rights
• Japanese
• Silver Policy
• Sales of overseas investors

In Japan, the impact of corporate financial results, exchanges, and the Japanese silver policy is large, and it is dangerous to apply the amマリー of U.S. stock as it is.

United States

The following factors are important:

• FRB Financial Policy
• RECRUIT
• Inflation index such as CPI
• High-tech
• Large Themes for AI and Semiconductors

In recent years, due to the high influence of NVIDIA and large-scale high-tech stocks, financial results and interest rate s may move the entire market.

More important things

The most important thing for beginners

September

October

It is too simple.

The following four things are really important:

For example, if you have a strong interest rate and good corporate financial results, the stock price may rise in September.

On the contrary, if you are concerned about recession or financial anxiety, it may be a big fall in any month.

I don't know how to get up

落s are very difficult to predict accurately in advance.

The price may rise further after I thought that it will be lower than the market.

On the other hand, when you press “I’m still okay” you may have a sudden drop.

Many investors are likely to fail:

• All sale only with 落 forecast
• Don’t start investing in fear of fall
• Buy with high price delay
• Short-term trading only with monthly anomaly

It is not bad to see the monthly trend of the market.

However, the more you try to avoid 落s completely, the more difficult it is to judge.

Long-term investment

For long-term investment, the following three are more important than monthly value movements:

• 積立
• 分散
• 継続

If you buy and sell only a short-term monthly trend, it will be easier to buy and sell s.

On the other hand, if you decide the asset allocation and continue to grow, you can also treat the fall months as part of your investment.

Stronger investment in fall

We will continue to buy when the price drops.

That’s why we have the following benefits:

• Buy more at cheap prices
• Lower average purchase price
• Reduces the burden of timing decisions

Of course, there is a possibility that a loss occurs during the fall.

However, in long-term asset formation, the depreciation phase may also be the seed of future returns.

What Beginners Should Care

We believe that the moon is dangerous

Anomaly is not absolute.

Even if there is such a trend in the past, it is not always the same.

Depends on Expectations

It is difficult to apply the market timing perfectly.

Sometimes you may miss a long-term rise surface to avoid crashes.

Short-term sales center

If you are too aware of the monthly anomaly, short-term trading becomes easier.

The more you buy and sell, the more you pay, the more you pay, the more you pay.

• The U.S. stock is easy to say as a weak month in September
• October has a strong memory of historical 落s
• However, it is not applicable every year
• Share price is moving in economic, interest rate, corporate profit, market expectations
• Long-term investments are critical to umulation and dispersion

First of all, the following three consciousness makes it easier to invest calmly.

1. Do not overestimate monthly trends
2. Long-term perspective
3. buting assets under rampage

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Make the design that continues even down

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Reference

• Investing.com: S&P 500 Seasonality Shows September as Weakest Month
• The Motley Fool: The September Effect
• Stock Trader's Almanac: September Almanac & Vital Stats