【summary】
The disposable time market is a competition to see how much of consumers' free time they can use for their services. In the past, the evaluation criteria was ``Are they selling well?'' but now, ``Are they spending more time?'' comes first. Video distribution, SNS, games, music, and AI are symbolic, and the key point here is how usage time connects to advertising, billing, and recurring charges.
The essence is simple: whether it is ``sustainable time for the company'' before ``easy to use for users''. When making investment decisions, you can reduce misjudgments by looking not only at the number of users, but also at the quality of usage and the quality of monetization.
What is disposable time?
Disposable time is the free time that remains after subtracting fixed time such as work and sleep. Roughly speaking, it is the time in the day when you have the right to choose.
| Classification | Time |
|---|---|
| Sleep | 8 hours |
| Work/School | 8 hours |
| Meals/Transportation | 2 hours |
| Disposable time | 6 hours |
With only 6 hours left, there will be competition to see how far this can go. Unlike money, time is not something that can be created. So the meaning of scarcity is a matter of behavioral design rather than price.
Why is this important?
old model
- Make the product
- Sell
- Profitable
It was in that order.
Currently
- Gain time
- It becomes a habit.
- Monetize
are interpreted in this order. For video streaming, for example, if usage time increases
- Increased advertising display opportunities
- Cancellation is delayed
- Billing rate is also likely to increase
That's the flow.
However, simply increasing usage time does not necessarily mean success. If the three points of ARPU, churn, acquisition cost, and ad unit price are not met, growth will suddenly become ``first in numbers.''
Difference from attention economy
| Concept | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Disposable time market | Stealing users' time |
| Attention Economy | Capturing User Attention |
| Subscription economy | Connect to recurring billing |
It is connected in practice.
可処分時間
↓
注意
↓
利用習慣
↓
広告収益・課金Earning time is the first entry point, revenue comes after. If the entrance is weak, even a superficial increase in the number of members will not convert into repeat customers.
Axis that investors should look at
If you only look at sales and profits, you tend to only read half the numbers. The time domain should not be treated as just an auxiliary line, but as an indicator that shows the foundation of earnings first.
Checkpoint
- Number of users
- Usage time per person
- Monthly usage frequency
- Retention rate
- Churn rate
- Charge rate
- ARPU per hour (revenue efficiency)
example
Company A: 100 million users, average usage time 10 minutes
Company B: 50 million users, average usage time 2 hours
Company B has a larger accumulation per hour, so if the billing rate is the same, there is a possibility that the earning potential will be higher. The market will look at this and decide whether or not ``pricing'' will proceed.
Why misunderstandings occur
Myth: Just looking at the number of users is enough
There is an impact in the short term, but if the withdrawal occurs quickly in the short term, the stock market will be more cautious than expected.
Myth: It's OK if sales increase
Even if you can increase sales, profits will be adversely affected if the habituation cost and CAC increase. Here, we will distinguish between ``is monetization working?''
Myth: If you have strong technology, you can win.
Technology is a necessary condition, not a sufficient condition. If the continuity mechanism and cost structure collapse, usage time will not be maintained.
Frame for investors (TAME)
The practical order of evaluating companies is as follows.
TAME analysis
| Item | Check points |
|---|---|
| Time | Continuous usage time per user, withdrawal speed |
| Attention | Repeat visit rate, length of stay, and superiority in comparison with alternative services |
| Monetization | Billing rate, ARPU, ad unit price, cancellation rate |
| Expansion | Room for reinvestment to improve profits, feasibility of domestic and overseas expansion |
The number of explanatory variables will be reduced if you read this not only as a straight line of ``time acquisition → habit formation → monetization'' but also in the order of looking at whether the quality of earnings has deteriorated.
summary
The disposable time market is a way of reading the competition for free time. When looking at future growth potential, look not only at traditional market share, but also at how much time a company can acquire and how much of that time can be converted into revenue.
Modern growth companies
- First, take your time.
- Fixed as a habit,
- Create a monetizable structure
I will compete in that order.
Companies can no longer win just by "selling products." Is there a design that you can take the time to create that doesn't come back? From a learning perspective, rather than increasing numbers itself,
- Are the numbers of a quality that will support future profits?
- Is there a risk of price decline at the time of monetization?
This will reduce the noise in your interpretation of the theme.