[Summary]
My view on Senshukai is currently neutral. In the first quarter of the fiscal year ending December 2026, sales were 9,166 million yen, down 7.1% from the same period last year, but operating loss was 988 million yen, down from 1,158 million yen in the same period last year. While the mail-order business continues to be affected by a decline in the number of customers, profitability has improved by reviewing unprofitable products and improving sales promotion efficiency. The full-year plan remains unchanged at sales of 45 billion yen and operating income of 200 million yen, while net income has been revised upward to 1,350 million yen due to the recording of gains on the sale of fixed assets. The evaluation of stock prices is not based on extraordinary profits, but on whether the company's main business can become profitable in line with its revitalization plan.
Overview
Senshukai is a retail and service company whose core business is the mail-order brand "Belle Maison." Currently, in line with the revitalization plan announced in February 2025, we are redefining the targets of the mail order business and reviewing the cost structure.
Sales: 9,166 million yen Operating income: Loss of 988 million yen Final profit: loss of 988 million yen YoY: Sales decreased, deficit narrowed
Although sales are still shrinking, the company is making progress in improving its profitability, and the core point is that the company is maintaining its operating profit plan for the full year of 2026.
Financial Highlights (Simple Table)
| Indicators | Contents |
|---|---|
| Sales | 9,166 million yen, down 7.1% from the same period last year |
| Operating income | Loss of 988 million yen, loss of 1,158 million yen in the same period last year |
| Final profit | Loss of 988 million yen, loss of 1,305 million yen in the same period last year |
| Factor 1 | The number of customers continued to decline in the mail order business |
| Factor 2 | Reduced loss by reviewing unprofitable areas and improving sales promotion efficiency |
The company's full-year plan is to maintain sales of 45 billion yen, operating income of 200 million yen, and ordinary income of 200 million yen.
What happened (most important)
Quantity
In the mail order business, the number of customers continued to decline as targets became clearer in line with the company's revitalization plan. Mail-order business sales for the first quarter were 7,688 million yen, down 8.4% from the same period last year.
In the monthly data for March, Belle Maison's order amount compared to the same month last year was 93.3 in January, 95.4 in February, and 88.1 in March, for a cumulative total of 91.8, and the top line is still recovering.
This decline in volume is not so much due to evaporation of demand, but rather due to structural reforms aimed at focusing on core customers while eliminating unprofitable areas.
Price
Senshukai's current point of contention is not that it is driven by price increases. Rather, they are in the process of organizing what they sell to whom and reducing mismatches between products and sales promotions.
The revitalization plan states that Belle Maison's main target audience will be the baby boomer generation, and that the company will target parents raising children and seniors through separate channels and business domains. This is a phase where optimizing product composition comes first rather than price.
Cost
Improvements are progressing on the cost front. The mail order business operating loss for the full year of 2025 was 3,082 million yen, down from 3,933 million yen in the previous fiscal year, and the company-wide operating loss also decreased compared to the same period of the previous year in the first quarter of 2026.
The reasons behind this change are the revision and abolition of unprofitable products, more efficient sales promotion expenses, and a review of the operating system. The company's turnaround plan for February 2025 also points to the high cost of acquiring orders as an issue, and improvements in fixed costs and sales promotion efficiency are currently taking precedence over sales expansion.
Exchange
Senshukai is not an export-oriented company, and its business performance is not directly influenced by exchange rates. However, if the real purchasing power of consumers weakens due to the weak yen and high prices, this could easily create a headwind for mail-order demand for items such as clothing, miscellaneous goods, and furniture.
The 2026 1Q brief report also states that sluggish growth in real wages and continued price increases are putting downward pressure on personal consumption, and this is difficult to ignore as an external environmental factor.
Separating structural and temporary factors
Net income attributable to parent company shareholders for the fiscal year ending December 2025 of 3,940 million yen was largely due to the recording of gains on sales of fixed assets. On March 30, 2026, due to the sale of the former Chiba Call Center, the company raised its net income forecast for the fiscal year ending December 2026 from 100 million yen to 1,350 million yen.
Therefore, if you only look at the final profit, the improvement seems significant, but to measure changes in the core business, you need to look at the pace of improvement in operating profit and loss. This is also important for stock prices.
Latest materials (3 months)
On February 13, 2026, Senshukai announced its full-year financial results for the fiscal year ending December 2025. Sales were 42,071 million yen, down 8.3% from the previous fiscal year, and operating loss was 2,588 million yen, down from 3,459 million yen in the previous fiscal year. On the other hand, net income was 3,940 million yen due to gain on sales of fixed assets.
On February 13, the company also announced changes to its shareholder return policy and the abolition of its shareholder benefit system. The preferential treatment will end at the end of December 2025, and the company plans to shift its focus to returns in the form of cash dividends. However, the dividend forecast for the fiscal year ending December 2026 is that there will be no interim dividend and the end of the period has not been determined, so it is still difficult to predict when the dividend will be resumed.
On March 30, 2026, the company announced the recording of an extraordinary profit due to the sale of the fixed assets of the former Chiba call center and an upward revision to its full-year net income forecast. The operating profit plan remains unchanged at 200 million yen, and it is important to note that the improvement in the profit plan will focus on extraordinary profits rather than the core business.
On May 1, 2026, the company announced its first quarter financial results and monthly data for March. Even though sales decreased in Q1, the deficit narrowed and the company maintained its full-year operating profit plan. The fact that the company's plans were left unchanged despite the weak monthly total of 91.8 shows that the company has not broken its improvement scenario, which focuses heavily on the second half.
In terms of stock price, supplementary public market data as of May 1, 2026 shows a closing price of 134 yen, a PBR of 0.89 times, and a market capitalization of approximately 6.98 billion yen. The PBR is less than 1x, but the 2026 net income forecast includes gains on the sale of fixed assets, so a simple PER evaluation tends to make it seem cheaper than the actual situation.
Business structure
Source of revenue
The main source of earnings is the mail order business, with full-year sales in 2025 of 35,989 million yen, accounting for the majority of companywide sales.
In addition to this, the company has other businesses centered on corporate business, insurance business, and childcare support. For the full year of 2025, corporate business sales were 4,007 million yen, insurance business's sales were 390 million yen, and other sales were 1,684 million yen.
Profit margin
The profit structure is still low, and the operating profit margin for the full year of 2025 is -6.2%. Since the company is yet to become profitable, the evaluation point will be improved fixed cost absorption capacity rather than sales growth.
Strengths
Key point Key point Key point
Weaknesses
Key point Key point Key point
Implications for stock prices
Positive
2025 / 2026 / 1 2026. 0.89
Negative
Key point 2026 Key point
Weaving
The current situation, with the stock price at around 134 yen, is not so pessimistic as to predict a complete failure of recovery, but it is not so pessimistic as to strongly believe that the company will become profitable. The market is more likely to be at the stage where they are trying to determine the reproducibility of turning a profit, rather than the plan itself.
Gap
The gap going forward lies in whether profits will continue to improve despite declining sales, or whether the decline in customer numbers will last longer than expected. If profitability is confirmed, there will be room for correction for PBR below 1x, but if the plan to focus on Q4 collapses, the evaluation is likely to be compressed again.
Short term (6 months)
In the short term, the monthly order trends from April onwards and the second quarter financial results will be most important. There are three things to look at. The question is whether the rate of decline in sales in the mail-order business will slow down, whether operating losses will continue to shrink due to improved sales promotion expense efficiency, or whether the corporate business and child-rearing support will serve as a supporting role.
In particular, since the company's plans are heavily focused on the second half, it is difficult to gain confidence in the scenario of operating in the black unless there is a sense that sales have bottomed out in the first half.
Mid-term (1 year)
In the medium term, the key question is whether the company will actually be able to return to operating profit in 2026, the second year of the revitalization plan. The company's revitalization plan envisions a stage of improvement in 2025, profitability in 2026, and stable profitability in 2027.
Therefore, the three points to watch over the medium term are whether the strategy of focusing Belle Maison on the junior baby boomer generation will work in terms of both sales and profits, whether profits will grow from the use of mail-order assets such as external malls and corporate outsourcing, and whether new fields will grow into complementary sources of income.
Stock evaluations should gradually shift to whether operating profits remain positive, rather than single-year extraordinary profits.
Scenario analysis
Bullish: 25% If the deterioration in monthly orders stops and an operating surplus becomes clear in the second half due to improved sales promotion efficiency, the stock price is likely to be revised, including a revision of PBR below 1.
Neutral: 50% If the deficit continues to shrink even if sales remain weak, and the company secures a small profit for the full year of 2026, the stock price will likely remain stable, albeit in a low range.
Bearish: 25% If the decline in customers continues longer than expected, and plans to return to operating profit are delayed because sales are not expected to recover in the second half, the stock price will likely return to a cautious evaluation.
Risk (simple table)
| Risk | Contents |
|---|---|
| Demand | Mail-order demand is weakening due to high prices, and sales recovery may be delayed |
| Sales promotion | Customer acquisition efficiency may not improve and loss reduction may stop |
| Dependency on one-time profits | Extraordinary profits may push up net income, making it difficult to see improvement in the core business |
| Return policy | Attrition of individual shareholders and delay in resumption of dividends after the abolition of preferential treatment |
| Plan progress | Possibility of not achieving the scenario that emphasizes the second half of the revitalization plan |
Summary
Senshukai's sales in the first quarter of the fiscal year ending December 2026 were below the previous year's level, but in terms of reducing the operating deficit, it was in line with expectations. The foundation for the second year of the revitalization plan remains intact as the company maintained its full-year operating profit plan.
However, the increase in the 2026 full-year net income forecast is largely due to the gain on the sale of fixed assets, and what should be evaluated is the operating profit or loss of the main business. The significance of the stock price is not the apparent cheapness that includes special profits, but rather the extent to which the improvement in profitability of the mail order business takes hold.
The next point to watch is the monthly order trends from April onwards and how far the sales decline rate will be reduced in the second quarter results. In the short term, progress will be confirmed, and in the medium term, whether or not the company will become profitable will be the turning point in evaluation.