[Summary]
As of May 2026, Lasertec's stock price is likely to decline due to "expectation adjustment" rather than a deterioration in business performance. The market places more emphasis on the speed of recovery in EUV-related orders than on operating profits, and the view that there will be a ``recovery, but not explosively'' is leading to disappointed selling. In addition, downward pressure is amplified due to SOX index adjustment, US interest rates remaining high, AI-related changes in capital circulation, and deterioration in credit supply and demand. While the monopoly position of EUV testing equipment remains strong in the medium to long term, in the short term the high volatility characteristic of high-expectation leading stocks continues.
Overview
Lasertec is a semiconductor inspection equipment manufacturer with highly competitive EUV mask defect inspection equipment.
It has been evaluated for its high growth expectations against the backdrop of expanding investment in AI semiconductors.
On the other hand, after spring 2026,
- Order recovery pace
- AI-related overheating feeling
- US interest rates rise
- Overall adjustment for semiconductor stocks
As a result, stock prices have become unstable.
Although the company's business performance remains at a high level, the biggest issue is whether it can continue to exceed market expectations.
Financial Highlights
| Indicators | Contents |
|---|---|
| Sales | Maintaining high standards |
| Operating income | Continuing high profit margin |
| Final profit | Maintaining increasing profit trend |
| Factor 1 | Demand for advanced semiconductors for AI |
| Factor 2 | EUV-related capital investment |
| Market reaction | Selling is dominant due to unmet order expectations |
What happened
The most important thing about this decline is that
“Falling expectations” rather than “deteriorating performance”
That's the point.
Lasertec is currently
- A.I. *2nm *HBM *High-NA EUV
- Next generation CPU
An extremely high PER stock that is evaluated based on future themes such as:
Therefore, the market is not just about good performance;
“Growth far exceeding market expectations”
I'm looking for.
Particularly important is the amount of orders received
What the market cares most about is operating profits,
Recovery speed of EUV-related orders
It is.
In the market,
- TSMC Advanced Investment *ASML order recovery
- Expansion of AI server investment
There were even stronger expectations.
However, the company's outlook is
"It's on a recovery trend, but it's not rapidly expanding."
It was easy to give that impression.
As a result,
- Expected correction *PER compression
- Short-term capital outflow
is likely to have occurred.
Structural and temporary factors
| Item | Contents |
|---|---|
| Structural factors | Rising expectations related to AI |
| Structural factors | High evaluation of EUV exclusivity |
| Temporary factors | SOX index adjustment |
| Temporary factors | Rising US interest rates |
| Temporary factors | Deterioration of credit supply and demand |
Latest materials (3 months)
Positive material
- Continued investment in AI servers
- 2nm mass production expected *High-NA EUV expected to spread
- Demand for advanced CPUs
Negative material
- Dissatisfaction with the pace of order recovery
- US interest rate cut expectations recede
- Overall adjustment for semiconductor stocks
- Chinese regulatory concerns
- High PER correction pressure
Market view
In 2024-2025,
- Semiconductor manufacturing equipment
- AI infrastructure related
Funds were concentrated in
However, in 2026,
- Data center power
- Optical communication *AI software *GPU implementation related
People are starting to spread their search to other areas.
In other words,
“AI can improve anything.”
From the situation,
“Selecting companies that can continue to grow profits”
We are moving into a new phase.
Business structure
| Item | Contents |
|---|---|
| Mainstay | EUV mask inspection equipment |
| Source of revenue | Semiconductor equipment investment |
| Strengths | High market share and high technological barriers |
| Strengths | Advanced process specialization |
| Weaknesses | Large fluctuations in orders |
| Weaknesses | Dependence on semiconductor cycle |
Lasertec's strengths are
“De facto exclusivity of EUV testing equipment”
It's in
On the other hand,
- Customer concentration *Depends on investment cycle
- Anticipatory valuation
This feature is also great.
Implications for stock prices
In the short term,
- Achievements
- Orders
- US Semiconductor Index
- Credit supply and demand
act in a complex manner.
Especially Lasertech,
“Expectation-driven, supply-demand driven”
Typical brand.
Therefore,
- High price update failure *25 day line cracking
- Hidden line with rapid increase in volume
When something like this occurs, it is easy for algo buying and selling and credit restructuring to occur.
More than fundamentals,
- Market psychology
- Futures led *Position adjustment
This is a situation where stock prices can easily be affected.
Short term (6 months)
The points to note are as follows.
- Recovery of EUV orders
- SOX index trends
- US long-term interest rates
- AI capital investment continuity
- Improvement in credit supply and demand
In the short term, volatility is likely to continue.
Overshoots are particularly likely to occur during periods of deterioration in supply and demand.
Mid-term (1 year)
In the mid-term,
*2nm mass production
- High-NA EUV popularization
- Demand for advanced semiconductors for AI
What is important is whether it continues.
On the other hand,
- Maintain high PER
- Continued growth in orders
- Semiconductor equipment investment cycle
The market demand for this is extremely high.
From now on,
“Can we continue to prove that we can maintain high growth?”
will be the focus of evaluation.
Scenario analysis
Bullish: 40%
- Rapid recovery in EUV orders
- Re-acceleration of AI capital investment
- SOX index rebound
→ There is room for stock price rebound by maintaining high PER
Neutral: 40%
- Orders are recovering slowly
- Continued demand for AI
- PER normalized
→ Box area transition
Bearish: 20%
- US interest rates remain high *Semiconductor investment slowdown
- AI expectations faded
→ Continued high PER correction
Risk
| Risk | Contents |
|---|---|
| Fluctuations in orders | Slowdown in semiconductor investment |
| Chinese regulations | Sales restriction risk |
| Interest rates | Growth stock headwinds |
| Supply and demand | Accelerating credit restructuring |
| Valuation | High PER correction |
Summary
This decline is
Not “performance collapse”
“Adjustment phase of AI/EUV expectations”
It's natural to see that.
Especially important is
- Expectations were too high
- Dissatisfaction with the pace of order recovery
- Adjusted for US semiconductor stocks
- Deterioration of credit supply and demand
That is a complex factor.
In the medium to long term, EUV-related competitive advantages will remain strong.
On the other hand, in the short term, prices are easily affected by supply and demand and market sentiment, and there is a possibility that the price may continue to experience wild fluctuations.
The next focus is
- EUV order trends
- TSMC capital investment
- SOX index recovery
- US interest rate trends
Become.