Fujikura (5803) complete analysis 2026 | Favorite candidate for AI data center/optical communication/high momentum market

[Summary]

Fujikura (5803) is one of the representative AI infrastructure-related growth stocks in the Japanese stock market in 2026.

Although companies are generally classified as "electric wire stocks" or "non-ferrous metal stocks," the market is currently evaluating them not only on demand for conventional wires.

In the data center for generative AI,

*GPU communication

• Server-to-server connection
• High-speed wiring inside the rack
• High-capacity optical communication
• High density cable
• Inter-data center connectivity

is essential.

Among them, Fujikura

“An optical communications and high-density wiring company that supports the physical infrastructure of AI data centers”

has been re-evaluated as

The financial results for the fiscal year ending March 2026 were 1,182.4 billion yen in sales, 188.7 billion yen in operating income, 199.5 billion yen in ordinary income, and 157.2 billion yen in net income attributable to owners of the parent company.

Operating income increased 39.2% year on year, and net income increased 72.5%.

Meanwhile, the company's forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027 is sales of 1,243 billion yen, operating income of 211 billion yen, and net income of 156 billion yen. Operating income is expected to increase, but net income is expected to decrease by 0.7%.

Given this combination of ``good results, but next year's net income forecast is slightly down,'' the stock price plummeted after the earnings call.

The closing price on May 15, 2026 is 5,819 yen. It is 536 yen lower than the previous day, or 8.43% lower. On May 14th, the price fell sharply, including a temporary stoppage, and selling continued on May 15th as materials were consumed.

The essence of this time is

“Performance is strong, but the stock price may have taken too much into expectations.”

That's the point.

First, the conclusion

As of 2026, Fujikura will

“Representative of the Japanese AI infrastructure market”

There is no doubt that it is.

However, looking at the stock price reaction after the financial results, it is not a simple "buying for good financial results."

“High momentum stocks where AI growth expectations and valuation adjustments collide”

should be viewed as.

The key issues are:

In other words, Fujikura is not a stock whose downward price can be supported by its dividend yield.

The company's expected dividend for the fiscal year ending March 2027 is 38 yen on a post-stock split basis. The expected dividend yield for the closing price of 5,819 yen on May 15th is approximately 0.65%.

38yen ÷ 5,819yen ≒ 0.65%

What the market is looking at is not dividends,

“How far can AI data center demand rise?”

It is.

Evaluation of financial results for the fiscal year ending March 2026

Fujikura's financial results for the fiscal year ending March 2026 are very strong if you just look at the numbers.

Particular praise was given to growth in the information and communications business.

With the spread of generative AI, demand for data centers, optical fiber cables, and optical-related products grew significantly, and profitability improved.

What is important is not just an increase in sales;

“High added value through AI infrastructure investment is leading to improved profit margins”

That's the point.

Fujikura is starting to be seen as an optical communications infrastructure company for AI data centers rather than a traditional electric cable company.

Points that the market was wary of

While the financial results were strong, the stock price fell sharply.

The reason is the company's forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027.

Operating income is expected to increase.

However, with AI momentum stocks like Fujikura, the market is not just looking at whether profits will increase.

What the market expected was

“Further significant upside due to AI demand”

It is.

Therefore, if net income is expected to decline slightly or be below market consensus,

strong earnings
↓
Key point
↓
Key point
↓
PERKey point
↓
share priceKey point

This tends to be the case.

This sudden decline is not due to the collapse of Fujikura's business.

“Valuation adjustment due to expectations being too high”

It is natural to see this.

View after 6-for-1 stock split

Fujikura has split its common stock into 6 shares, effective April 1, 2026.

Therefore, when comparing the actual results for the fiscal year ending March 2026 and the forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027, it is necessary to pay attention to stock price and dividend split adjustments.

The annual dividend for the fiscal year ending March 2026 was 225 yen on a pre-split basis.

When converted after division,

225yen ÷ 6 = 37.5yen

The annual dividend forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027 is 38 yen.

In other words, the dividend has increased slightly on a post-split basis.

However, since the dividend yield is only in the 0.6% range, Fujikura's investment decisions are based on

• AI data center demand *Profit margin of optical communication products
• Sales to North America
• backlog
• Room for upward revision
• Valuation

will be the center.

The essence of Fujikura being evaluated in the AI market

The current AI market cannot be achieved by semiconductors alone.

An AI data center requires the following physical infrastructure:

Fujikura's strength lies in the communications and connectivity field.

Generative AI involves a large amount of data moving in and out of the GPU cluster.

Therefore,

“Not only computing power but also communication ability is a constraint for AI data centers.”

There is a structure called.

Fujikura's optical fiber, optical components, and high-density wiring technology will be evaluated here.

Why SWR/WTC is attracting attention

SWR/WTC is one of Fujikura's strengths that is attracting attention in the market.

SWR refers to Spider Web Ribbon, WTC refers to Wrapping Tube Cable.

Fujikura develops ultra-high-core, small-diameter, high-density optical fiber cables that combine SWR and WTC.

The company's product description introduces the SWR/WTC type optical fiber cable, which has 13,824 fibers with an outer diameter of 40 mm or less, and is said to help save space and shorten the construction period of data center construction.

This is important for AI data centers.

At the data center,

• Accommodate large amounts of optical fiber in limited space
• Shorten the installation period
• Maintain workability while increasing density
• Supports future expansion

There is a need.

SWR/WTC is a product group that easily meets this need.

Therefore, Fujikura

“A company that solves wiring density problems in AI data centers”

It is becoming easier to see it as such.

Linkage with North American hyperscaler CAPEX

Fujikura's AI infrastructure evaluation is strongly tied to North American hyperscalers' capital investments.

What is driving demand for AI infrastructure is

*Microsoft *Amazon

• Google
• Meta *Oracle
• Major cloud provider
• AI model company

It is.

In other words, Fujikura is essentially

“Leverage stock for expanding North American AI CAPEX”

is treated as.

If investment in North American AI data centers continues, demand for optical communications and high-density wiring is likely to remain strong.

On the other hand,

• Concerns about AI investment ROI
• Postponement of data center investment plans
• Power shortage
• Changes in GPU procurement cycle
• CAPEX control for cloud companies

If this happens, there will be pressure to adjust Fujikura's valuation.

Although Fujikura is a "Japanese company," the real drivers of its stock price are quite global.

Current chart structure

Fujikura's stock price closed at 5,819 yen on May 15, 2026.

It fell sharply after the announcement of financial results on May 14th, and continued to fall on May 15th.

Therefore, the current chart is

“Transition from high price momentum market to expected value adjustment phase after settlement of accounts”

It is.

The typical flow is as follows.

AIexpectationsKey point
↓
share priceKey point
↓
earningsKey point
↓
strong earningsKey point
↓
Key point
↓
Key point
↓
50Key point

What is important here is that rather than the sudden decline itself,

“Where does supply and demand stop after a sharp decline?”

It is.

The trading volume on May 15th was extremely large, exceeding 128.9 million shares, and it is possible that fire selling and push buying collided at the same time.

Moving average line analysis

The most important thing for Fujikura is the 50-day moving average.

In growth stocks, the 50-day line tends to act as a buy line for institutional investors.

If we can recover the 50-day line early,

• Overseas growth funds
• AI Theme Fund
• Momentum Investor *Personal funds to buy on the spur of the moment

becomes easier to re-enter.

On the other hand, if the stock cannot recover to the 50-day line and is forced to sell back, the stock may not be in the high-priced box in the short term, but may proceed to another valuation adjustment.

Oscillator analysis

Due to the sharp decline after the earnings call, the short-term oscillator may have cooled down considerably from its overheating.

However, for high momentum stocks like Fujikura,

“RSI lower = safe”

Not.

The important thing is that

“Are growth expectations maintained?”

It is.

In AI-related stocks,

• Good financial results
• Expected upward revision
• backlog
• Improve profit margin
• Continuation of North American CAPEX

As long as the stock is maintained, there are cases where it will be bought again after a sharp drop.

On the other hand, if growth continues to slow down or market expectations are not met, the PER compression will accelerate.

While Fujikura's absolute level of performance is strong this time, the gap between expectations and expectations is moving the stock price.

Valuation risk

This is the most important point.

As of May 15th, according to Yahoo! Finance's reference indicators, the company's expected PER is approximately 61.8 times and PBR is approximately 17.2 times.

This is not a general evaluation of manufacturing or electrical wire stocks.

The market is Fujikura,

“AI infrastructure growth stocks”

It is evaluated as

Therefore, Fujikura's stock price is based not only on "current period profit" but also on

• AI data center demand after 2027
• North American hyperscaler investment
• Optical cable supply constraints
• Pricing power
• Maintain profit margin
• Expected upward revision

is incorporated.

A high P/E ratio is justified if expectations hold.

But when expectations crumble,

profitKey point
↓
Key point
↓
PERKey point
↓
share priceKey point

This is likely to develop.

The sharp decline after the latest financial results is a sign that the market is becoming more aware of this risk.

Volume/demand and supply analysis

Fujikura's biggest feature is that it has a large concentration of domestic and foreign funds.

Current participants are:

*Domestic individual investors

• Overseas growth fund
• AI Theme Fund *CTA
• Short-term algo
• Short seller
• Earnings event investors

It is.

In other words, price movements are not related to TOPIX defensive stocks, but

“NASDAQ-style AI momentum stock”

It's close to.

After the settlement of accounts,

• Profit selling
• Disappointing seller *Short selling
• Buy on the spur of the moment
• Buyback

occur at the same time.

For this reason, a big trade like the one on May 15th is not just a decline;

“Replacement of large funds”

should be viewed as.

Maximum short-term focus

The biggest theme after the beginning of the week is

“VWAP recapture and 50-day line recovery”

It is.

The situation we had envisioned in the manuscript before the financial results, ``Can we maintain VWAP after the gap increase?'' actually went in the opposite direction.

The focus of reality is

earningsKey point
↓
Key point
↓
Key point
↓
VWAPKey point
↓
50
↓
Key point

It is.

Bullish scenario

• The decline will stop at the 5,800 yen level.
• Exceeds VWAP after stopping
• The back scene doesn't collapse either.
• Positive line with trading volume *Recover the 50-day line early

If this happens, the sharp decline will end with an "adjustment of expectations," and a restart in the AI infrastructure market will be in sight.

Bearish scenario

• Return and sell after stopping
• Unable to recover VWAP
• Low price
• Hidden line with sharp increase in trading volume continues
• Unable to maintain the 5,700 yen level

In this case, short-term funds will continue to be withdrawn, and the market will likely look for support below the 50-day line.

Upper price/lower price med

Upside resistance

Downside support

Risk factors

Fujikura's biggest risk is

“Fading expectations for AI investment”

It is.

The risks to be aware of are as follows.

Unlike financial stocks and high-dividend stocks, Fujikura is not a stock that supports downward prices with its dividend yield.

Therefore,

“Decrease in expected value = stock price adjustment”

You need to be careful about things that can easily lead to.

Second half of 2026 scenario

Main scenario

The main scenario is

“After adjusting expectations after financial results, it will be reevaluated as a leading AI infrastructure stock”

It's an expansion.

The conditions are as follows.

• The decline will stop at the 5,700 to 5,800 yen level.
• Recover VWAP
• Above the 50-day line again
• North American AI investment continues
• Maintain high profit margin in the information and communications business
• Raw material constraints do not significantly put pressure on performance
• Expectations for upward revision are reignited in the next financial results

If these conditions are met, Fujikura will once again

“Candidate for leading role in Japanese stock AI infrastructure market”

may be reviewed as such.

Risk scenario

The risk scenario is

“High PER correction continues, moving from high price range to middle box”

It's an expansion.

Specifically,

• Unable to recover VWAP
• 50 day line recovery fails
• Strong resale
• NASDAQ and AI related stocks will adjust
• There are concerns about a slowdown in North American AI CAPEX

It is a case.

In this case, Fujikura is not saying that the AI theme is over.

“Valuation adjustment until next confirmation of upward revision”

may enter.

Overall evaluation

Fujikura is currently

“Representative of the Japanese AI infrastructure market”

It is.

The strengths are clear.

• AI data center demand
• High-density optical communication *SWR/WTC technology
• Growth for North America
• High profitability of information and communications business
• Foreign capital inflow
• Overwhelming theme

On the other hand, as the sharp drop after this earnings report showed, the stock price is already pricing in very high expectations.

The essence of Fujikura is

“Not a dividend stock, but a high momentum AI infrastructure stock where expected value management is the most important”

It is.

Therefore, in investment decisions,

*AI expectations

• North American CAPEX *50 day line *VWAP
• Volume
• PER compression risk

must be viewed at the same time.

Final conclusion

The main focus after the beginning of the week is

“Can we maintain the 5,700 yen level and recover VWAP and the 50-day line?”

It is.

If this point can be cleared, this sudden drop will be interpreted as an adjustment in expected values ​​after a good financial result, and there is a possibility that the stock will be bought again as a leading candidate in the AI ​​infrastructure market.

On the other hand,

• Unable to recover VWAP
• Back selling continues
• Consecutive hidden lines with rapid increase in volume *Below the 5,700 yen level

If so, high P/E corrections may continue in the short term.

However, at this point, the medium- to long-term theme of demand for AI data centers has not collapsed.

Therefore, Fujikura

Not a “dead theme stock” but an “AI infrastructure growth stock that is adjusting between strong business growth and high expectations”

It is appropriate to evaluate it as

In the second half of 2026, the biggest challenge will be whether we can once again exceed market expectations at our next financial results.

Reference information

• Fujikura Financial Results and Dividend Announcement for the Year Ending March 2026: https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000189.000056990.html
• Fujikura SWR/WTC type optical fiber cable: https://www.optic-product.fujikura.com/jp/fiber-optic-cable/swr-wtc/
• Fujikura optical fiber cable products: https://www.optic-product.fujikura.com/optical-fiber-cables/
• Fujikura Information Transmission/Research and Development: https://www.fujikura.co.jp/research/data-transmission/
• Yahoo! Finance 5803 stock price/indices: https://finance.yahoo.co.jp/quote/5803.T