NTT (9432) Complete Analysis 2026 | Japanese version of infrastructure assets supported by new NISA, IOWN, national policy, and share buybacks

[Summary]

NTT (9432) is one of the most popular long-term stocks in the Japanese stock market in 2026.

The company is more than just a communications company.

It is a recipient of personal funds in the new NISA era, a defensive stock that supports communications infrastructure, and a company deeply involved in physical infrastructure in the generative AI era through IOWN, data centers, submarine cables, and AI solutions.

In the fiscal year 2025 financial results, operating revenue was 14,409.1 billion yen, operating profit was 1,706.2 billion yen, and profit attributable to the company was 1,037 billion yen, resulting in increased sales and profits.

The company's forecast for fiscal 2026 is operating revenue of 15.6 trillion yen, operating profit of 1.71 trillion yen, and profit attributable to the company of 980 billion yen. Although the final profit is expected to decrease, the annual dividend is expected to be 5.40 yen, an increase of 0.10 yen from the previous year's 5.30 yen.

Assuming the closing price of 151.8 yen on May 15, 2026, the dividend yield is approximately 3.6%.

5.40yen ÷ 151.8yen ≒ 3.6%

Additionally, on May 8, 2026, NTT announced the acquisition of its own shares with a maximum of 1.4 billion shares and a total acquisition amount of up to 200 billion yen. The acquisition period is from May 11, 2026 to March 31, 2027.

The essence of this time is

“Anchor stocks of Japanese stocks with low unit prices, stable dividends, national policy infrastructure, and re-evaluation of AI infrastructure”

That's the point.

First, the conclusion

NTT is not a stock aiming for a short-term spike, but rather

“Infrastructure stocks that can easily serve as a foundation for Japanese asset formation”

It is natural to evaluate it as

The strength is not the flashy price movements.

Rather, what is important is the combination of:

In other words, NTT is not an aggressive AI stock like NVIDIA.

The role in Japanese stocks is

“A stock that is a defensive core asset but has room to reevaluate AI infrastructure”

It is.

NTT is approaching Japan's version of quasi government bonds

NTT's biggest feature is not its explosive power like growth stocks.

The essence is

“A national asset that is often seen as somewhere between savings and stocks”

The point is that it functions as a.

Of course, NTT stock is not a government bond, and there is a risk of stock price decline and dividend cut risk.

Even so, market participants tend to give the impression that they are similar to "pseudo government bonds" because the following conditions are met.

For individual investors who have just started the new NISA, NTT is likely to be an easy-to-buy Japanese stock to start with.

This low psychological hurdle is extremely important in terms of supply and demand.

When stock prices fall, it is easy for individual investors to buy on the spur of the moment, buy on a whim, and buy in reserve.

As a result, a structural support band for personal money is likely to form on the downside of NTT.

Personal supply and demand changed by stock split

In 2023, NTT split its common stock into 25 shares.

The official announcement explains that June 30, 2023 will be the record date, and that each share of common stock as of that date will be split into 25 shares.

This stock split has great significance.

Before the split, NTT was well known, but the investment units were heavy, making it a little distant for beginners.

However, the stock price is currently in the 100 yen range, and you can purchase 100 shares for 10,000 yen.

151.8yen × 100shares = 15,180yen

This price range is very approachable not only to the growth investment limit of the new NISA, but also to investors who have entered the market through small-lot investments, point investments, and fractional share investments.

In other words, NTT doesn't just "look like a cheap stock price."

“Entry product for Japanese stocks”

We are establishing ourselves as a.

Financial evaluation

In fiscal 2025, NTT achieved increased sales and profits.

Operating revenue was at a record high level, supported by expansion in data centers, global solutions, and finance.

On the other hand, final profit is expected to decrease in fiscal 2026.

Therefore, this financial statement is

“Stable growth and continued investment as a huge infrastructure company” rather than “flashy profit growth”

This is something that should be viewed as such.

In the short term, sluggish earnings growth could limit upside.

However, since there are dividends and share buybacks, the structure makes it easy to buy based on yield and supply and demand during times when stock prices have fallen significantly.

Lower price support created by stock buybacks

On May 8, 2026, NTT announced a share buyback.

What is important here is that the number of shares is ``1.4 billion'' rather than ``140 million.''

NTT has a very large number of outstanding shares after the stock split, so it is easy to misread the notation, but the official announcement is ``1.4 billion shares'', or 1.4 billion shares.

This stock buyback has two implications for stock prices.

However, share buybacks are subject to a maximum limit and may not necessarily be implemented in full.

The actual status of repurchases must be confirmed in the monthly share repurchase status.

Still, the fact that there is a purchase limit of 200 billion yen is psychologically supportive for individual investors.

Overhang between government-held stocks and the NTT Act

NTT's biggest supply and demand theme is government-held stocks.

The NTT Law stipulates that the government must hold more than one-third of NTT's total outstanding shares at any time.

This structure gives investors two impressions.

In other words, while the NTT Law is a source of security, it also creates an overhang for stock prices.

The market is wary of

“How will government-held stocks come to market?”

It is.

On the other hand, NTT has continued to buy back its own shares.

In the future, if we see a situation in which the company can absorb the concerns about the sale of government-held stocks through share buybacks, NTT's evaluation will change significantly.

For this reason, in NTT's medium- to long-term rerating,

“How to handle government-held stocks” and “continuity of stock buybacks”

will be the biggest issue.

IOWN and AI infrastructure re-evaluation

It is no longer enough to view NTT as just a domestic telecommunications stock.

With the expansion of generative AI, the importance of physical infrastructure is once again increasing in the world.

NTT describes the All-Photonics Network, which is the main technology area of IOWN, as a concept that aims to achieve low power consumption, high speed, large capacity, and low delay transmission by introducing photonics technology from devices to networks.

This is extremely important in the AI ​​data center era.

The spread of AI will not end with GPUs alone.

We need communication networks that can transport large amounts of data with low latency, data centers that consume huge amounts of electricity, submarine cables that connect locations, and a secure infrastructure that supports data distribution.

NTT has strength in this physical infrastructure side.

In other words, NTT is

“Japanese infrastructure company for running AI”

There is room for it to be reevaluated as such.

Meaning of data center business

The FY2025 financial results report explains that NTT Group's data center business has a total power receiving capacity of approximately 2,000MW, the largest in Japan and the third in the world, with plans to expand by over 2,700MW and plans to expand to 3,000MW by FY2030.

This is very important.

In the AI ​​market, GPU manufacturers and semiconductor-related stocks tend to attract attention, but data centers are ultimately needed to implement AI in society.

AIKey point
↓
GPUKey point
↓
data centersdemand
↓
Key point
↓
infrastructureKey point

NTT controls both communications and data centers here.

There are times when the investment burden may seem heavy in the short term.

However, in the medium to long term, the more demand for AI infrastructure continues to expand, the more likely NTT's data center business will be evaluated.

Technical structure

NTT stock's closing price on May 15, 2026 was 151.8 yen.

The stock price hit a year-to-date low of 148 yen on May 11th, and then returned to 151.8 yen on May 15th.

In other words, the current NTT is

“After confirming the lower price around 150 yen, it is time to test the reversal and fixation”

It is.

It's not a sudden rise like growth stocks, but a defensive move that slowly returns while checking for lower prices.

The important price ranges are:

The focus after the beginning of the week is

“Can we maintain the 150 yen level and return to the 155 yen direction?”

It is.

If the stock maintains the closing price of 150 yen and moves back toward 155 yen with increased trading volume, it will be easy to see that it has bottomed out at the May low price.

On the other hand, if the price clearly breaks below 148 yen again, the box area in the mid-100 yen range may continue for a long time.

Room for rerating brought about by the review of the NTT Act

NTT's medium- to long-term catalyst is a review of the NTT Act.

Discussions surrounding the NTT Act, such as government ownership obligations, foreign investment regulations, restrictions on business operations, and the handling of infrastructure facilities, are directly linked to market evaluations.

If NTT is able to move forward with its next measures more flexibly in the future, investors' views will change.

In this case, NTT is not just a high dividend defensive stock;

“National policy global company with AI infrastructure”

may be reevaluated as

However, legal reforms and system reviews are political processes, and they do not always proceed at the timing investors expect.

Therefore, while the revision of the NTT Act is a strong factor, it is dangerous to factor it in too much as a short-term catalyst.

Risk factors

NTT's biggest risk is

“Uncertainty in politics and supply and demand surrounding government-held stocks”

It is.

If the method and timing of selling government-held stocks remains unclear, foreign investors will be wary of overhangs and will find it difficult to buy at higher prices.

Other risks are as follows.

Of particular note is the decline in operating income in the comprehensive ICT business compared to the previous fiscal year.

Even if the company is stable, communication charges, customer acquisition costs, capital investment, and risk management associated with financial business expansion must be continually checked.

Second half of 2026 scenario

① Main scenario

From settling in the 150 yen level to gradually rising to the 160 yen level

The conditions are as follows.

If these conditions are met, NTT will not see a flashy spike;

“Before you know it, you're out of the bottom zone”

It will be easier to enter the type of rising market.

The first barrier to an upward move is around 155 yen, followed by the year-to-date high of 161 yen.

If the price clearly exceeds 161 yen, there will be a strong view that the price has broken out of the slump in the low 150 yen range, and a test of establishing the 160 yen level will become a possibility.

② Risk scenario

Boxes in the mid-100 yen range remain below 148 yen

If the debate over the sale of government-held stocks continues for a long time and foreign investors refrain from buying, NTT is likely to see a heavy upside.

Additionally, if Docomo's telecommunications revenue and general ICT business profit improvements are slow, it will be difficult to reevaluate it as a growth stock, even if it remains valued as a stable dividend stock.

In that case,

“The bottom price is firm with the new NISA individual purchase, but the top price is also heavy”

There is a possibility that this box market will continue.

However, since we have a dividend forecast of 5.40 yen and a share buyback limit, at this point we are looking at a readjustment to around 150 yen rather than a major collapse.

Overall evaluation

NTT is currently

“National defensive asset in the new NISA era”

It is one of the most iconic brands.

The company's appeal is not short-term price range.

The essence lies in the following six points.

If NVIDIA is a symbol of the offensive in the AI era, NTT is the core of the defense in Japanese stocks.

Of course, since it is a stock, there is a risk of price fluctuation.

We cannot ignore the overhang of government-held stocks, competition in communications fees, investment burden, and the time it will take for IOWN to become profitable.

Still, NTT

“Stocks that are unassuming, but can serve as the foundation for long-term asset formation for Japanese people”

As such, it will remain one of the most important candidates in the second half of 2026.

Final conclusion

The focus after the beginning of the week is

“Can we maintain the 150 yen level and return from 155 yen to 161 yen?”

It is.

If NTT maintains its closing price at 150 yen and the progress of share buybacks, new NISA individual buybacks, dividend evaluation, and AI infrastructure re-evaluation are combined, it will be easier for NTT to gradually start lowering its price.

On the other hand, if the price clearly falls below 148 yen, there is a possibility that the box market will remain in the mid-100 yen range for a long time.

However, NTT is not a stock aiming for a short-term spike.

Considering dividends, small investments, national infrastructure, IOWN, data centers, and share buybacks, NTT's current

“A national core stock that can protect the Japanese stock portfolio while also aiming to reevaluate AI infrastructure”

It is reasonable to evaluate it as.

Source

• [NTT “FY2025 Financial Results [IFRS] (Consolidated)” May 8, 2026](https://group.ntt/jp/newsrelease/2026/05/08/pdf/260508ab.pdf)
• NTT “NOTICE REGARDING STOCK REPURCHASES” May 8, 2026
• NTT "NOTICE REGARDING STOCK SPLIT AND RELATED AMENDMENT TO ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF NTT" May 12, 2023
• NTT "IOWN Functions and Characteristics / APN"
• Japanese Law Translation "Act on Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation, etc."
• Yahoo! Finance "NTT (9432) Stock Price Time Series" May 15, 2026