[Summary]
The Tokyo stock market on May 20, 2026 (Wednesday) is expected to see a sell-off followed by a search for a downside, due to the combination of low U.S. stocks and a wait-and-see mood before NVIDIA's financial results.
The Nikkei Stock Average on May 19th fell for the fourth day in a row to 60,550.59 yen, down 265 yen from the previous day. Although buying was ahead in the morning, selling was predominant, especially in semiconductor-related stocks, and the weight of the top price was felt.
In the US market last night, all three major indexes fell. The S&P 500 fell for the third day in a row, and the yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose to the 4.66% range. Rising interest rates and profit-taking are weighing on AI and high-tech stocks.
On the other hand, the dollar/yen exchange rate is hovering around 159 yen, and a weaker yen tends to support export stocks. Although the decline in U.S. stocks is a headwind, foreign exchange rates support the downside of Japanese stocks to a certain extent.
The main focus today is NVIDIA's financial results for the first quarter of its fiscal year 2027, which are scheduled to close on the 20th in the US and early on the 21st in Japan.
Today's Nikkei average is
60,400yen〜61,100yenWe expect a nervous turmoil centered around the combination of leading selling in semiconductor stocks, support for the exchange rate, and the wait for NVIDIA's financial results.
US stocks: All three major indexes fell
In the US market on May 19th, all three major indexes fell.
According to the Associated Press, the S&P 500 fell for the third straight day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq also falling.
| Index | Closing price | Change from previous day |
|---|---|---|
| Dow | $49,363.88 | -$322.24, -0.6% |
| S&P 500 | 7,353.61 | -49.44, -0.7% |
| NASDAQ Composite | 25,870.71 | -220.02, -0.8% |
The reasons behind this are the rise in US long-term interest rates and the taking of profits before NVIDIA's financial results.
In particular, AI-related stocks have been bought heavily recently, so it is easy to see a move to lighten their positions before the end of the fiscal year.
NVIDIA is scheduled to announce its financial results after the market close on May 20, US time, making it the most important event for semiconductor stocks around the world.
Interest rates and exchange rates: USD/JPY around 159 yen, wary of intervention
In the US bond market, the 10-year bond yield rose to the 4.66% range.
High interest rates tend to be a headwind for tech stocks, which tend to be bought on expectations of future profits.
On the other hand, in the foreign exchange market, the dollar/yen exchange rate is hovering around 159 yen.
| Indicators | Sense of level |
|---|---|
| US 10-year bond yield | 4.66% range |
| Dollar yen | Around 159 yen |
| Points to note | Warning for intervention due to approaching 160 yen |
While the weaker yen supports the performance expectations of exporting companies, as it approaches 160 yen, it is likely that the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan will become more wary of verbal or live intervention.
Therefore, it is important to be aware of the risk of a sudden reversal in the exchange rate when the dollar/yen moves towards the high 159 yen range.
Japanese stocks from the previous day: Nikkei average fell for 4th day in a row
In the Tokyo market on May 19th, the Nikkei Stock Average fell for the fourth consecutive day.
The morning session started with advance buying, but after a round of buying, there was selling in semiconductor-related stocks and stocks with large index contributions, and the closing price was 60,550 yen.59.
| Item | Contents |
|---|---|
| Nikkei average closing price | 60,550 yen 59 sen |
| Compared to the previous day | -265 yen 36 sen |
| Price movement | Stalls after morning high |
| Main weight | Profit-taking selling of semiconductor-related stocks |
Although the Nikkei average has maintained the 60,000 yen level during the uptrend until the previous day, it is easy to take profits in the high price range in the short term.
Therefore, today's focus will be on whether the stock can maintain the 60,000 yen level and whether there will be buybacks in semiconductor stocks before NVIDIA's financial results.
Today's Nikkei average forecast range
Today's forecast range is as follows.
60,400yen〜61,100yenOn the upside, the wait-and-see mood before NVIDIA's financial results tends to weigh on it.
On the other hand, on the downside, the yen's depreciation around 159 yen and buy-ins tend to provide support.
| Level | View |
|---|---|
| Around 61,100 yen | It is easy to lock in profits before NVIDIA's financial results |
| Around 60,500 yen | Near the previous day's closing price. Level of finding direction |
| Around 60,400 yen | After factoring in the drop in US stocks, check if there will be a pushback buy |
CME Nikkei 225 average futures are reported to be around 60,700 yen as of early morning, which is not a significant drop from the previous day's Nikkei average closing price, but the top price is likely to be heavy due to the decline in US stocks.
Investor sentiment is likely to become stronger: ``If NVIDIA is going to make a big move after the earnings results, there is no need to force yourself to buy today.''
Therefore, even if the stock moves up or down during the day, the trading volume may taper off towards the close.
Focus 1: Hold back on semiconductor stocks as we wait for NVIDIA results
The most noteworthy factor is NVIDIA's financial results.
NVIDIA is scheduled to announce its first quarter financial results for fiscal year 2027 after the market closes on May 20, 2026, US time.
These financial results are extremely important for Japanese stocks as well.
The reason is that semiconductor-related stocks have a large influence on the price movements of the Nikkei Stock Average.
The following stocks are particularly noteworthy.
| Brand | Code | Points of Interest |
|---|---|---|
| Tokyo Electron | 8035 | Continuity of AI semiconductor capital investment |
| Advantest | 6857 | AI chip testing demand |
| DISCO | 6146 | Demand for advanced chip processing and grinding |
| Lasertec | 6920 | EUV-related investment expectations |
If NVIDIA's financial results are strong, it will be easy to buy Japanese equipment stocks based on expectations for continued capital investment in AI semiconductors.
On the other hand, if the guidance is lower than market expectations, profit-taking will likely occur in semiconductor stocks as a whole.
Therefore, the focus today will likely be on position adjustments before the announcement of financial results.
In the morning, low-priced semiconductor stocks may be the first to sell due to the falling Nasdaq and rising US interest rates.
However, it is difficult to sell deeply ahead of tonight's NVIDIA financial results, and after factoring in a decline in US stocks in the previous session, it is possible that the stock will decline.
Focus 2: After completing the financial results announcement, move on to individual research
The announcement of companies' financial results for the fiscal year ending in March has almost finished.
As a result, the overall theme of the market has shifted from the "earnings announcement itself" to selective investments based on the outlook for the current fiscal year.
The following companies are likely to be bought in the future.
*Companies whose current guidance is stronger than market expectations *Companies that come up with measures to improve PBR below 1x *Companies that strengthen shareholder returns through dividend increases and share buybacks *Companies that can improve operating profit margins through price transfer
- Companies with actual demand themes such as AI, semiconductors, electric power, and robotics
On the other hand, even if the financial results are not bad, stocks whose prior expectations are too high are likely to be sold.
For Japanese stocks in the second half of May 2026, the selection of individual stocks will likely be more important than the index as a whole.
Focus 3: The solidity of the exchange rate is a supporting factor
If the exchange rate continues to trend steadily toward a weaker yen, this will likely provide support for export stocks.
However, since the Nikkei average is in the high 60,000 yen range, it is not as simple as a weak yen alone leading to an overall appreciation.
In fact, since it is difficult to touch semiconductor stocks today, there is a possibility that funds will be directed to the following areas.
- Small and medium-sized stocks with strong financial results
- High dividend/dividend increasing stocks *Stocks that benefit from rising interest rates
- Defense, power, heavy electrical, robotics related
- Cheap domestic demand stocks
On days when large-scale semiconductor stocks are at a standstill, even though the index may be heavy, there may be many individual stocks that increase in value.
Focus 4: Domestic stocks to be selected due to high crude oil prices and weak yen
In a situation where high oil prices and a weak yen are perceived at the same time, concerns about cost-push inflation tend to increase.
Therefore, in domestic demand stocks such as restaurants, retail, and food, there is often a difference between companies that are able to pass on price changes and those that are not.
| Sector | View |
|---|---|
| Dining out/Retail | Focus is on whether cost increases can be passed on to prices |
| Banking/Insurance | People tend to be aware of the benefits of rising interest rates |
| Energy | High crude oil prices are likely to provide a tailwind |
| Defense/Heavy Electricity | Funds can easily be directed to individual themes |
On days when the index is heavy, we want to check the movement of funds between sectors.
Today's investment stance
Today is not a day to be too aggressive, but rather a day to prepare for big price movements starting tonight and tomorrow morning.
In particular, semiconductor-related stocks may move significantly either up or down after NVIDIA's financial results.
Therefore, beginners should be aware of the following three points.
- Don't concentrate too much on semiconductor stocks before earnings
- Don't jump on short-term spikes or dips
- Check cash ratio and position size
When looking at NVIDIA's financial results, you should expect not only upside, but also exhaustion and disappointing guidance.
After taking into account a decline in US stocks in the morning, there is a possibility that both buying and selling will be held back, leading to a market with a decline in the front and a stalemate in the second, waiting for results.
Summary
The Japanese stock market on May 20, 2026 will likely be dominated by a wait-and-see mood before NVIDIA's financial results.
Although the Nikkei average has remained at the 60,000 yen level, it is easy to take profits in the high price range, and the top price of semiconductor stocks tends to be heavy.
Today's view is as follows.
| Item | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Nikkei average range | 60,400 yen to 61,100 yen |
| Market mood | Nervous struggle after early selling |
| Main character | NVIDIA financial results waiting, US interest rates, semiconductor stocks |
| Individual search | Finance, energy, defense, good financial results, dividend increase |
| Investment Stance | Don't be too aggressive and prepare for tomorrow's fluctuations |
Today,
Today is the day I go to win
Rather,
A day to prepare for tomorrow's big waves
It is realistic to think that.
Reference materials
- AP: How major US stock indexes fared Tuesday 5/19/2026
- Yomiuri Shimbun: Nikkei average closing price, 265 yen lower to 60,550 yen
- NVIDIA: First-Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Results Call Scheduled
- [Minkabu: NY markets 4 o'clock, CME Nikkei average futures] (https://fx.minkabu.jp/news/367587)
- Investing.com: Tokyo exchange rate around 159 yen per dollar