Moi (5031) short-term/long-term scenario analysis: 357 yen cap on May 20th and room for reassessment to 2027

[Summary]

Moi (5031), which operates the live streaming platform "TwitCasting," achieved operating profit of 339 million yen in the fiscal year ending January 2026, a significant increase of 45.9% from the previous fiscal year.

The stock price on May 19, 2026 was 277 yen, an increase of 2 yen from the previous day, and the trading volume closed at 9,200 shares. Although the stock price level is low, trading volume is thin, and there is still insufficient material and buying pressure for strong price movements in the short term.

Individual investors are interested in whether the price will reach 357 yen on May 20, 2026. In conclusion, reaching 357 yen is theoretically possible, but breaking above 358 yen is not possible due to price range restrictions.

However, there are important changes. On the overnight PTS, the price has already increased by 80 yen to 357 yen, or the May 20th stop high level. As a result, the focus shifted from "Will it reach 357 yen?" to "Will it be possible to reproduce and maintain the PTS's stop high level on the TSE floor market?"

On the other hand, in the medium to long term, the evaluation axis will be based on changes in the profit structure due to increases in point ARPPU, membership growth, and improvement in payment fees. What we need to see from the second half of 2026 to 2027 is not a short-term spike, but whether it will be reevaluated as a profitable growth stock.

Moi's current location

Moi is a TSE Growth-listed company that operates the live streaming service TwitCasting.

For a time, there were concerns about slowing growth due to the reaction to the coin tipping boom, and stock prices remained low. However, the improvement in profitability was noticeable in the fiscal year ending January 2026.

The main stock price indicators as of May 19, 2026 are as follows.

If you look only at the stock price, it is a low-ranking stock, and you can invest in 100 shares for as little as 27,700 yen. It is true that the price range is easy for individual investors to enter.

However, the thin trading volume of 9,200 shares cannot be ignored. In terms of value, it is approximately 2.55 million yen, and while short-term supply and demand is light, it is likely to stall quickly if buying does not continue.

What does “357 yen” on May 20th mean?

The closing price on May 19, 2026 was 277 yen.

Under JPX's price range limit, if the base price is between 200 yen and 500 yen, the price range limit is 80 yen.

Therefore, the upper limit of Moi on May 20, 2026 can be calculated as follows.

277yen + 80yen = 357yen

In other words, no matter how much buying there is on May 20th, under normal trading rules, the upper limit will be 357 yen.

The important point here is that "reaching 357 yen" and "breaking 357 yen" are different.

Therefore, the expression "the price will break through 357 yen on May 20th" is not accurate.

The correct question is, "Can the price reach the 357 yen stop high on May 20th?"

What the PTS stop height indicates

On the night PTS, Moi has already been bought up 80 yen to 357 yen.

This is a clear change in short-term supply and demand.

The fact that the price was bought to the stop high level on the PTS means that, at least overnight, individual investor funds are leaning bullish. It is easy to attract attention even on the next day's preview, and it is easy to catch the attention of short-term traders and ranking monitors.

However, the PTS stop height does not guarantee the TSE auction market limit height.

The reason is as follows.

• PTS trading volume tends to be thinner than the TSE floor market
• Prices can move significantly with a small number of buy orders
• There is a possibility that sell orders will increase depending on the next morning's market conditions.
• Short-term profit-taking selling is likely to occur around 357 yen.

Therefore, PTS's price of 357 yen is a very strong sign, but what investors should be looking at is whether it can maintain the price around 357 yen after moving closer.

Short-term scenario: Can the high PTS be reproduced in this market?

In the short term, May 20th suddenly gained attention as it was bought up to 357 yen on PTS.

However, three conditions are still required in order to maintain the stop high on the TSE auction market.

1. Volume is low

Volume on May 19th was 9,200 shares.

It is easy to move low-ranked stocks with a small amount of capital, but in order to maintain the increase in PTS in the main market, you will need many times more buy orders than usual.

If the trading volume does not increase immediately after the market approaches, there is a possibility that it will be pushed back by short-term traders who see the PTS rise and sell to take profits.

2. A lump in the high price range since the beginning of the year remains

Moi's year-to-date high is 373 yen.

The mid-300 yen to 370 yen range is a price range where investors who bought at the beginning of the year are likely to sell back.

Even if there is strong buying on May 20th, short-term profit taking and reversal selling are likely to overlap around 350 yen.

Precisely because the stock was bought up to 357 yen on the PTS, it is important to see whether the buying will continue and whether it will be able to absorb the sudden selling.

3. There is still time until the next settlement confirmation.

Yahoo! Finance shows the next scheduled financial results announcement date as June 10, 2026.

For short-term investors to make a full-fledged move, they need additional materials such as progress in financial results, earnings revisions, large-scale alliances, and new services.

Short-term expectations rose as the price was bought to the stop high level first on the PTS.

On the other hand, in order for the stock to stick to the limit high even in the auction market based solely on speculation before settlement, it is necessary to continue buying and increasing trading volume after the stock price approaches.

Short-term forecast range

From a short-term perspective for a few weeks from May 20th, the focus will first be on whether the price can maintain the 270 yen level.

In the short term, 357 yen is the theoretical upper limit for May 20th rather than a target.

Since the PTS has already been bought up to 357 yen, the realistic focus is whether the stock can maintain the high 300 yen range even after the move, or whether the trading volume will increase from tens of thousands of shares to more than 100,000 shares.

Long-term scenario: true evaluation axis towards 2027

What is more important than short-term price range restrictions is whether profit growth will continue from the second half of 2026 to 2027.

Moi's financial results for the fiscal year ending January 2026 were sales of 6.688 billion yen, operating income of 339 million yen, ordinary income of 389 million yen, and net income of 101 million yen.

Operating income increased 45.9% year on year, ordinary income increased 52.1%, and net income increased 265.4%.

Looking at these numbers alone, there is room to view the company as a profitable growth stock with improved earnings, rather than just a low-value stock.

1. ARPPU increase

According to Moi's financial results, the average monthly point ARPPU increased by 10.4% compared to the previous quarter.

Even if the number of users is not continuing to grow, profitability can easily improve if the unit price per paying user increases.

However, at the same time, the monthly average point PU decreased by 9.6% compared to the previous quarter. This is a challenge.

What investors should look at is whether ``the number of employees will decrease, but the unit price can make up for it,'' or whether ``the reduction in the paying tier will take effect first.''

2. Membership and Billing Shift

Financial results briefing materials show that membership growth, billing shifts, and reductions in payment fees contributed to improved profits.

This is important.

Profit margins for live streaming services vary greatly depending not only on sales growth, but also on payment costs, user fees, and app billing ratios.

In order to be evaluated toward 2027, real gross profit and operating profit margin need to continue to improve, rather than sales growth.

3. Supporting individual investors through preferential treatment

Moi offers QUO cards with its own original design as a shareholder benefit.

On the Yahoo! Finance shareholder benefit page, you can see that the QUO card is worth 1,000 yen for 200 shares or more, and 5,000 yen for 500 shares or more, with the vesting date at the end of January.

Low-ranked stocks with preferential treatment tend to attract the attention of individual investors.

However, preferential treatment is only a supporting factor, and is not a major factor in pushing up stock prices over the medium to long term.

The main focus is continued growth in operating income and improvement of TwitCasting's profit model.

Stock price scenario from late 2026 to 2027

In the medium to long term, the following three scenarios are possible.

For Moi's stock price to rise in earnest, it is not enough to simply be ``cheap'' and ``offer preferential treatment''.

What is necessary is to be able to confirm the following points in the next financial statements.

• Will ARPPU continue to rise?
• Will the PU decrease stop?
• Will membership revenue grow?
• Will profits continue to improve due to lower payment fees?
• Will the operating profit margin further increase?

If these conditions are met, there is a scenario in which the stock can sell back down to the 350 yen level and try to reach the 400 yen level in 2027.

On the other hand, if growth appears to be slowing down in the next financial results, the downside support at the 270 yen level will likely collapse.

Viewpoints that investors should take

If you look at Moi in terms of short-term trading, the most important thing is the trading volume.

Even if the stock price alone rises, if it is not accompanied by trading volume, it is likely to stall due to backselling.

On the other hand, when looking at long-term investments, the most important thing is the continuity of operating profits.

There was a significant increase in profits in the fiscal year ending January 2026, but it is necessary to determine whether this is temporary or a structural change.

Checklist

Conclusion

Regarding Moi (5031), the points to watch on May 20, 2026 are clear.

357 yen is not the expected value but the upper limit of the price range limit. Reaching it is theoretically possible, but breaking through is impossible under normal rules.

However, on the PTS, the price has already increased by 80 yen to 357 yen. In the short term, the biggest focus will be on whether the PTS's stop high level can be replicated on the TSE exchange market, and whether it can absorb and maintain the sell-off after it approaches.

What is more important when discussing 357 yen is the trading volume rather than the price itself. We want to determine whether this is a high price due to thin PTS or a full-fledged move to attract funds in the main market.

On the other hand, in the medium to long term, there is room for Moi to be reevaluated as a profitable growth stock that is improving its profit structure, rather than just a low-value stock.

The key ingredients for 2027 are monetization for TwitCasting's core fans, membership revenue, improvement in payment costs, and continued improvement in operating profit margin.

Therefore, when making investment decisions, emphasis should be placed on ``Will profits continue to improve in the next fiscal year?'' rather than ``Tomorrow's maximum price.''

Reference information

• Moi (5031) Stock Price/Stock Information - Yahoo! Finance
• Moi (5031) Financial Information - Yahoo! Finance
• Moi Financial Results for the Fiscal Year Ending January 2026
• Moi financial results briefing material for the period ending January 2026
• Moi (5031) shareholder benefits - Yahoo! Finance
• Price limit range - Japan Exchange Group