Thorough analysis of the stock price correlation of NVIDIA, TSMC, and Lasertec | The core of the AI semiconductor market “trinity”

[Summary]

There are three companies that cannot be ignored when understanding the AI semiconductor market.

*NVIDIA *TSMC

Lasertech

These three companies are not just AI-related stocks.

NVIDIA will create demand, TSMC will be responsible for manufacturing and supply, and Lasertec will amplify expectations for cutting-edge capital investment.

In other words, the AI semiconductor market price has the following time difference linkage.

NVIDIA：AIdemandKey point
↓
TSMC：Key point
↓
Key point

In this article, we will discuss the correlation between the stock prices of the three companies, why Lasertec is moving so violently, why NVIDIA's financial results will affect Japanese stocks, and the investment strategy for 2026-2027.

The trinity that dominates the AI semiconductor market

In the AI semiconductor market, three processes are important: design, manufacturing, and inspection.

At the core of this are NVIDIA, TSMC, and Lasertec.

Company name	Role	Position	Strengths
NVIDIA	GPU design, AI software	Sources of AI demand	CUDA, Blackwell, Rubin, AI Factory
TSMC	Semiconductor Manufacturing	Production Bottlenecks	3nm/2nm, CoWoS, Advanced Packaging
Lasertech	EUV inspection equipment	Capital investment leverage	High competitiveness in EUV mask blank inspection

Importantly, the three companies are not in the same business.

NVIDIA is a company that creates demand for AI, and TSMC is a company that turns that demand into physical semiconductors.

Lasertec is an equipment company that attracts attention as cutting-edge foundries such as TSMC continue to invest in miniaturization.

How do the stock prices of the three companies interact?

1. NVIDIA moves first

NVIDIA is likely to react first in the AI market.

The reason is that demand for NVIDIA's GPUs is seen as the growth speed of the AI market itself.

When hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta increase their AI investments, expectations for NVIDIA's data center sales and GPU orders will increase.

Therefore, NVIDIA stock tends to move first in response to news of continued AI investment or financial guidance.

2. Next, it spreads to TSMC

TSMC's advanced manufacturing line is essential for NVIDIA to sell Blackwell and the next generation Rubin in large quantities.

The following two are particularly important.

*Advanced processes such as 3nm and 2nm

Advanced packaging such as CoWoS

The stronger the demand for NVIDIA, the easier it is for the market to predict that TSMC will continue to increase production, raise prices, and make capital investments.

Furthermore, TSMC is involved in advanced chip manufacturing not only for NVIDIA, but also for AMD, Apple, Broadcom, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and others.

Therefore, while TSMC tends to have lower volatility than NVIDIA, it is easier to receive long-term funds as the main body of AI infrastructure.

3. Lasertech amplifies at the end

Lasertech is particularly susceptible to large price movements among the AI semiconductor markets.

This is because the company is not a semiconductor sales company, but an equipment company linked to cutting-edge capital investment.

The flow is as follows.

NVIDIAKey point
↓
TSMCKey point
↓
EUVKey point
↓
Key point

Just because NVIDIA's demand is strong doesn't mean Lasertec's business will improve immediately.

However, as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel increase their advanced EUV lines, it is easy to expect that Lasertec will receive more orders in the future.

This expectation greatly moves stock prices.

Why is Lasertec so volatile?

Lasertec is a stock that strongly reflects the expected value of semiconductor capital investment.

The company's equipment has a high unit price and is easily influenced by customers' cutting-edge investment cycles.

Therefore, stock prices tend to move as follows.

Situation	Impact on Lasertec stock
TSMC increases CapEx	likely to increase due to order expectations
EUV investment brought forward	Growth expectations likely to be reevaluated
Concerns about slowdown in AI investment	Easily sold due to high expectations of PER
TSMC curbs investment	Possible to fall sharply due to concerns about slowdown in orders

Lasertech is sometimes the most strongly bought when AI markets are strong.

On the other hand, when concerns about a slowdown in capital investment arise, they tend to sell quickly.

This is why Lasertec is seen as a "leveraged stock in the AI semiconductor market."

Stock price characteristics of the three companies

Stock	Characteristics	Volatility	Investor perspective
NVIDIA	Main body of AI demand	High	Can high growth justify a high P/E
TSMC	AI manufacturing infrastructure	Moderate	Stable as a bottleneck in advanced manufacturing
Lasertech	Capital investment leverage	Extremely high	Significantly up and down depending on expectations for future orders

The difficulty with Lasertec is that it is easy to factor in expectations for future orders rather than actual profits.

In other words, even if the company's performance is not bad, it will be sold if it is seen that the next growth will be slow.

On the other hand, even if the performance numbers have not yet appeared, if it is seen that EUV investment will accelerate again, people will buy it.

Current market analysis in 2026

As of May 2026, the market's biggest focus is NVIDIA's 2027 fiscal year first quarter results.

There are four points investors should look at:

Will GPU demand continue with the transition from generative AI to agent AI? *Blackwell's supply constraints and shipping pace *Roadmap to Rubin
Will hyperscalers' data center investments slow down?

What's important here is not NVIDIA's past sales.

What the market is looking at is guidance for the next quarter and beyond.

Bullish scenario

If NVIDIA issues strong Q2 guidance and it is confirmed that Blackwell demand exceeds supply, the following trend is likely to occur.

NVIDIArise
↓
TSMCrise
↓
Key point

In this case, Japanese semiconductor equipment stocks, which were oversold during the downturn, are likely to be bought back.

Lasertech in particular has high volatility, so it may have the biggest reaction in the short term.

Bearish scenario

On the other hand, when NVIDIA's financial results call into question the cost-effectiveness of AI investment, normalize GPU supply, and slow down investment in hyperscalers, stocks with high capital investment leverage are most likely to be sold.

It is easy to factor into Lasertec's stock price the uncertain expectations of increased EUV investment from 2027 onwards.

Therefore, if NVIDIA does not meet expectations, it is easy to take profits from semiconductor equipment stocks with high P/E ratios.

Golden rules of investment strategy

1. Look at the demand forecast instead of NVIDIA's stock price

If you only follow the daily ups and downs of NVIDIA stock, you will easily make mistakes in your judgment.

The following items should be looked at.

Indicator	Meaning
Data center sales	Strength of AI demand
Q2 Guidance	Did it exceed market expectations
Blackwell comment	Supply constraints and shipping room
Rubin comment	Continued investment after 2027
Hyperscalar demand	Spread on TSMC and Japanese equipment stocks

The stronger the demand outlook for NVIDIA, the stronger the expectations for manufacturing orders to TSMC and investment in Japanese equipment and testing companies.

2. TSMC's CapEx is the most important indicator

TSMC's capital investment amount is important when looking at Lasertec and Tokyo Electron.

TSMC has indicated an investment plan of $52 billion to $56 billion for CapEx in 2026.

If this range is revised upward, it would likely be a tailwind for Japanese semiconductor equipment stocks.

On the other hand, if TSMC shows restraint on investment, it will be a cause for concern for capital investment leveraged stocks like Lasertec.

3. If you are aiming for short-term explosive power, choose Lasertech

When the overall AI market turns risk-on, Lasertech tends to rebound strongly within the sector.

However, this also means that there is a greater risk of a decline.

This does not mean that Lasertec is not suitable for long-term ownership.

However, if you do not have clear purchase timing, position size, stop-loss line, and profit-taking rules, you will be easily swayed by price movements.

AI semiconductor market in 2026-2027

The AI market is moving from a simple generation AI boom to an AI infrastructure and industrial implementation phase.

In the future, the next investment cycle may continue.

Learning GPU
GPU for inference
In-house AI ASIC
Advanced packaging such as CoWoS
Transition to 2nm generation
Data center power and cooling
EUV inspection/pre-process equipment

What is important here is that this is not a world where only NVIDIA wins.

Even if the number of competing chips from AMD, Google TPU, AWS Trainium, and Microsoft Maia increases, the total amount of cutting-edge chips will increase, which could be beneficial for TSMC and Japanese equipment and materials companies.

Therefore, when looking at the AI semiconductor market, it is necessary to look at the entire supply chain, not just NVIDIA.

Conclusion

When looking at AI semiconductor stocks, many investors tend to only follow NVIDIA.

However, in reality, the following time difference linkage exists.

NVIDIA：demand
↓
TSMC：Key point
↓
Key point

Lasertech is the last stock to greatly amplify the heat of the AI market.

That's why it's strong when it's rising and dangerous when it's falling.

When reading the AI semiconductor market price for 2026-2027, it is important to look at NVIDIA's demand, TSMC's CapEx, and Lasertech's order expectations as a set.

Pursuing these three without separating them is the essential investment strategy for the AI semiconductor market.

Reference information

This article is for educational and informational purposes only, based on public information. It is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any specific security or financial product. Although care is taken with accuracy, the content and future investment outcomes are not guaranteed. Final investment decisions should be made at your own judgment and responsibility.