飛鳥・藤原の宮都 世界遺産登録後の投資テーマ 思惑から、実際の人流・単価・発注確認へ 交通・周遊 近鉄GHD 9041 JR西日本 9021 旅行・宿泊 KNT-CT 9726 教育旅行・団体 文化財DX TOPPAN 7911 DNP 7912 展示空間 乃村工藝社 丹青社 投資家が次に見るKPI 駅利用 / 定期外収入 / ツアー販売 / 宿泊単価 / 展示・DX案件 / 秋以降の決算寄与 kabutrack.com

First, the conclusion

The World Heritage registration of Asuka/Fujiwara no Miyato is a fairly easy-to-understand tourist theme for southern Nara Prefecture.

However, if you look at the stock market, you want to separate where the money goes after registration rather than the registration itself. Kintetsu Group Holdings (9041) has access to the Asuka/Kashihara area and a point of contact for sightseeing along the line. JR West (9021) will focus on how to incorporate southern Nara into its extensive Kansai tour. Among travel agencies, KNT-CT Holdings (9726) is similar to our theme with its planning capabilities for educational tours, historical tours, and group tours.

Another key issue is how to display the remains, which are difficult to see on site. UNESCO materials also state that many of the constituent assets are archaeological sites preserved underground, and that non-destructive display and commentary will aid in understanding the site. This is where the theme extends to cultural property DX and exhibition space brands such as TOPPAN Holdings (7911), Dai Nippon Printing (7912), Nomura Kogeisha (9716), and Tanseisha (9743).

However, here's where it gets difficult. Although the decision to register is big news, the contribution of listed companies to business performance is still being confirmed. In the short term, there is a possibility of running out of materials or taking profits. From a medium-term perspective, we will be watching to see if the numbers will show up in the fall tourist season, tour creation, station usage, unit price per room, and renovations of cultural facilities.

What's happening?

``Asuka/Fujiwara no Miyato'' is a group of archaeological ruins of an ancient imperial capital that spans Kashihara City, Sakurai City, and Asuka Village in Nara Prefecture. Cultural Heritage Online lists 19 constituent assets, including the Asuka Shrine Ruins, Asuka Temple Ruins, Ishibutai Tumulus, Fujiwara Shrine Ruins, Kitora Tumulus, and Takamatsuzuka Tumulus.

In UNESCO's 48th World Heritage Committee materials, the English name is "Ancient Capitals of Asuka and Fujiwara" and the registration criteria are (ii) and (iii). The evaluation focuses on the interaction with China and the Korean Peninsula during the period of ancient state formation, the formation of a centralized system, and its influence on the later formation of the capital cities of Nara and Kyoto.

The ease of understanding it as a tourist destination is a little different from Kyoto or Nara Park. Asuka/Fujiwara is not a tourist attraction where large buildings remain. It is necessary to connect underground preserved remains, ancient tombs, temple ruins, palace ruins, and landscapes through explanations, transportation, and experiential design.

Therefore, it would be shallow to simply talk about "increasing the number of tourists". We are finally starting to see investment themes that include transportation, secondary transportation, guides, accommodation, educational travel, cultural property DX, visitor centers, and exhibition renovations.

Structural change

Before registration, the market price was easily subject to speculation. It may be registered as a world heritage site, the number of tourists may increase, and related brands may be searched for. At that stage, stock prices tend to react to material names.

Things are different after registration. The market will cool down a bit.

Has the number of people actually increased? Does it work for non-regular Kintetsu trains? Can it be incorporated into JR West's wide-area tours? Can it be sold as a KNT-CT travel product? Will it fall under the cultural property digitization projects of TOPPAN and DNP, and the exhibition renovation projects of Nomura Kogeisha and Tanseisha?

This confirmation begins.

The time horizon for investment themes will also change. Immediately after the registration decision is made, short-term funds tend to react first. On the other hand, the effects on corporate performance will likely be felt once we see the autumn tourist season, group and educational tours starting in 2027, budgets for the development of local governments and related facilities, and renewal projects for exhibition and information functions.

Short-term theme stocks and medium-term performance themes are different things. If you mix this up, you'll get the wrong idea.

Beneficial area

Transportation/Excursions: Kintetsu GHD and JR West

The most directly visible company is Kintetsu Group Holdings (9041).

The Asuka/Kashihara area is often referred to as the Kintetsu station name. It has sightseeing routes to Kashihara Jingu-mae, Asuka, and Yoshino, and the tourist express ``Blue Symphony'' is also recognized as a product that connects Osaka Abenobashi to Yoshino. The Kintetsu Group's medium-term management plan documents also highlight group collaborations that include not only railways but also real estate, hotels, and travel, as well as tourism resources along the railway lines, including World Heritage Sites and national parks, as strengths.

However, Kintetsu GHD is a large company as a whole. It would be naive to assume that operating profits will change all at once just by registering as a World Heritage Site. Rather, it is more realistic to view it as an auxiliary engine that gradually boosts non-scheduled services, tourist trains, hotels, travel products, and lineside commerce.

I would like to look at JR West (9021) in the context of railway lines within Nara Prefecture, including the Manyo Mahoroba Line, and Kansai wide-area tours. As this is a stock where the reaction after the Osaka/Kansai Expo, as well as interest rates and repair costs, have already become points of contention for investors, Asuka/Fujiwara alone will not change the evaluation axis. Still, it will be interesting to see if Kansai's tourism theme can be expanded to southern Nara, rather than being limited to Kyoto, Osaka, and Nara urban areas.

Travel/Accommodation: KNT-CT and educational travel

KNT-CT Holdings (9726) is close to this theme as a travel company.

After being registered as a World Heritage Site, it will be easier to move around not only on casual trips. Products that require planning skills include historical exploration, cultural property tours, school excursions, collaboration with local governments, and guided excursions. Asuka/Fujiwara is not a tourist destination that you can tell at a glance by looking at the buildings, but it is a place whose value becomes clearer the more you listen to the explanation. The design capabilities of travel agencies can be easily utilized.

However, even if sales increase, travel agencies tend to have thin profit margins. You have to look at personnel costs, arrangement costs, price competition, and the profitability of group travel. Although the theme is easy to understand, the last thing investors look at is operating income, not transaction volume.

Cultural property DX: TOPPAN and DNP

A surprisingly important aspect of the Asuka/Fujiwara theme is cultural property DX.

TOPPAN Holdings (7911) has a track record of high-definition digital archives of cultural properties and the use of VR. The official website offers solutions for digitizing cultural properties and visualizing and utilizing them through VR and digital archives. In 2024, the digital cultural property museum "KOISHIKAWA XROSS" will be opened, introducing ultra-high-definition VR images and interactive viewing experiences.

Dai Nippon Printing (7912) also has connections with the creation of 3D data for cultural properties, digital archives, and cultural experiences using VR/AR. DNP's cultural property solutions include high-definition photography, 3D data, and digital viewing systems.

In Asuka and Fujiwara, simply showing off the ruins preserved underground would be a weak tourist experience. Restore the space of the imperial capital using AR, explain ancient tombs and temple ruins using a smartphone, and show high-definition images at a museum. Such demand is likely to become more serious after registration.

However, TOPPAN and DNP have large scale businesses. It is hard to imagine that cultural property DX alone will drive company-wide performance. As for investment themes, we should see how many orders for projects for local governments and cultural facilities, digital archives, tourism apps, and exhibition videos accumulate.

Exhibition space: Nomura Kogeisha and Tanseisha

Nomura Kogeisha (9716) and Tanseisha (9743) have a common theme in the development of cultural facilities, museums, and exhibition spaces.

Nomura Kogeisha has a track record of building public and cultural facilities, and Tanseisha explains that it supports the creation of facilities that will display cultural assets in an attractive manner and contribute to local tourism and town development.

The demand that will emerge after the Asuka/Fujiwara registration is not limited to new large-scale facilities. There is a possibility that a number of detailed projects will pile up, such as updating existing museum exhibits, providing multilingual support, guidance facilities, outdoor signs, digital images, and the design of tour routes.

When looking at these two companies, I want to check their order backlog, gross profit margin, and project profitability. In the exhibition/event industry, even if sales seem high, profits may be diluted by personnel and outsourcing costs. After people buy it based on the theme alone, they can see a significant profit margin in the financial results.

How to view related stocks

StockRolePoints to watchPoints to note
Kintetsu GHD (9041)Lineside transportation, hotels, travel, sightseeing trainsNon-regular use, lineside sightseeing, collaboration with hotels and travelThe scale of the entire company is large, and contributions from individual themes tend to be diluted
JR West Japan (9021)Kansai wide area tour, access within Nara PrefecturePost-Expo tourism, non-regular income, regional cooperationInterest rates, repair costs, post-Expo reactionary effects can be seen at the same time
KNT-CT(9726)Travel products, group/educational travelHistorical tours, educational travel, collaboration with local governmentsFocus on profit margin and arrangement costs rather than transaction volume
TOPPAN HD (7911)Cultural property VR, digital archiveCultural property DX, tourism app, high-definition videoContribution to company-wide performance depends on project size
Dainippon Printing (7912)Digitization of cultural assets, VR/AR3D archives, digital appreciation, cultural experiencesTheme contributions are easily dispersed
Nomura Kogeisha (9716)Exhibition spaces for public and cultural facilitiesExhibition renovations, guidance facilities, and signage planningCheck order profitability and outsourcing costs
Tanseisha (9743)Cultural tourism base, museum exhibitsCultural facilities, hands-on exhibits, multilingual supportExpected difference with the latest financial results, project profitability

This table is not a "list of stocks to buy." This is a map to differentiate how profits fall.

Transportation companies are concerned with the number of users and unit price, travel companies are concerned with product creation and profitability, DX companies are concerned with project development, and exhibition companies are concerned with orders and gross profit margin. The numbers you see are different. If you lump everything together under ``World Heritage-related'' without aligning those aspects, only the theme will come first.

KPIs that investors should look at

The first thing to look at is the flow of people. Number of visitors to Kintetsu's Asuka/Kashihara area, JR West's Nara Prefecture/Kansai wide area tours, tour buses, rental bicycles, and tourist facilities. The starting point will be how many tourists, who were concentrated in the Kyoto and Nara urban areas, will flow to the southern part of Nara after the area is registered as a World Heritage Site.

Next is the unit price. If people only pass through the area on a day trip, their contribution to corporate performance is small. How much money will you spend on accommodation, guides, meals, souvenirs, experience programs, transportation passes, and sightseeing trains? If this doesn't grow, the financial results won't move despite the news.

On the DX/exhibition side, we will look at municipal budgets, renovation plans for cultural facilities, visitor centers, digital guides, and implementation results of AR/VR content. Cultural property DX is a strong idea, but unless it becomes a project, it will not generate sales.

Finally, there is the financial settlement. For Kintetsu GHD, I would like to check comments related to non-regular travel and tourism, for KNT-CT, I would like to check the profitability of domestic travel and group travel, for TOPPAN and DNP, I would like to check on cultural properties and digital projects for local governments, and for Nomura Kogeisha and Tanseisha, I would like to check orders and profit margins for public and cultural facility projects.

Risk scenario

The bearish scenario is a feeling of completion after the registration decision.

Although being registered as a World Heritage Site is a strong sign, the stock market may factor it in to some extent even before registration. Even if the stock is bought immediately after the official decision is made, profit-taking sales are likely to occur unless the next material emerges. It often happens that stock prices do not increase despite good news.

The local reception system also poses a risk. Asuka/Fujiwara has component assets scattered over a wide area. If secondary transportation, multilingual information, restrooms, food, accommodation, and crowd management are weak, it will be difficult to increase length of stay and average customer spend. While it is expected to be a destination for overtourism, satisfaction will not increase unless there is a suitable counterbalance.

There is also a balance with the protection of cultural properties. Because underground remains, ancient tombs, and landscapes need to be protected, development and large-scale customer attraction facilities cannot be freely created. As an investment theme, it is easier to accumulate modest projects that balance preservation and presentation rather than flashy developments.

If you don't understand this, your view of the theme will be too flashy.

[Summary]

The registration of Asuka/Fujiwara no Miyato as a World Heritage Site has the potential to create a new tourist route for southern Nara Prefecture. Related stocks include Kintetsu GHD, JR West, KNT-CT, TOPPAN, DNP, Nomura Kogeisha, and Tanseisha.

However, as an investment theme, deciding on registration is not the goal. Rather, this is where the verification begins.

What the market wants to see is not an increase in the number of tourists, but non-regular revenue, travel products, unit price per room, cultural property DX projects, exhibition renovations, operating income, and operating CF. The registration expectation phase is over. From now on, we will be in a phase where we will be able to differentiate between companies that focus on numbers and companies that focus solely on themes.

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