SpaceX (SPCX) IPO Strategy Note | Should it be viewed as an AI infrastructure stock rather than a space company?

[Summary]

On May 20, 2026, Space Exploration Technologies Corp., also known as SpaceX, filed Form S-1 with the SEC.

The scheduled ticker is SPCX. We can confirm that S-1 has applied for listing Class A common stock on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas.

However, I would like to clarify this first.

In the initial S-1, the number of shares and price range are still blank. The figures such as a market capitalization in the range of 1.75 trillion to 2 trillion dollars, procurement in the range of 50 billion to 75 billion dollars, and listing in mid-June are currently based on media reports and market assumptions, and are not final conditions.

This is not a matter of "listing will be finalized on June 1, 2026." As of May 26, 2026, we can confirm that SpaceX has made S-1 public and has applied for listing on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas, and that major reports indicate that the price will be determined around June 11th and that trading will begin around June 12th.

Still, the contents revealed are quite large.

SpaceX is no longer a "rocket and Starlink company." With the acquisition of xAI in February 2026, it has become a huge tech company with three businesses: Space, Connectivity, and AI. Starlink generates profits, Starship sells dreams, and AI sucks in funds. The biggest point of this time is that these three are lined up in the same S-1.

IPO Overview: One of the largest, but terms have not yet been finalized

According to SEC EDGAR, SpaceX's S-1 was accepted on May 20, 2026.

The reason this IPO is called historic is not just because of its size.

SpaceX is trying to bring together space transportation, satellite communications, AI computing, social media/generated AI, and future space data center ideas into one publicly traded company.

In a normal IPO, investors look at ``sales growth rate,'' ``profit margin,'' ``market size,'' and ``competition.'' In the case of SpaceX, we must also evaluate the concentration of control in Elon Musk, the cash burn from AI investments, and the company's long-term plans for Mars and space data centers.

Honestly, this is no ordinary space stock.

Treatment of the term “largest IPO in history”

The SpaceX IPO is being treated as one of the largest deals in history based on media coverage.

However, whether it will truly be the largest in history will not be determined until the number of shares to be offered, price range, offering ratio, and final offering price are known. All that can be said at this point is that the conditions for it to become one of the largest in history are in place.

This distinction is very important when it comes to IPO investing.

There's a difference between a ``great company'' and ``a stock that pays off when you buy it at its initial price.'' Few investors doubt that SpaceX is the former. The question is how far into the future the public market will factor in on day one.

Business structure: three engines

The business segments on S-1 are broadly divided into Space, Connectivity, and AI.

Space：Falcon、Dragon、Starship、Key point
Connectivity：Starlink、Key point
AI：xAI、Grok、X、COLOSSUS、AIKey point

Investors should be looking at which businesses are making money, which businesses are spending money, and which businesses are creating future expectations.

1. Connectivity: Starlink makes cash

The strongest is Connectivity, a satellite communications business centered on Starlink.

According to S-1, the Connectivity segment in 2025 had sales of $11.387 billion, operating income of $4.423 billion, and Segment Adjusted EBITDA of $7.168 billion. Operating profit margin is approximately 38.8%, and adjusted EBITDA margin is approximately 63.0%.

If you just look at it, it looks like a pretty beautiful communications infrastructure company.

Starlink is not only used for individuals, but also for aviation, shipping, businesses, and governments. The strong point is that satellite communications is becoming recurring revenue.

I think many investors who buy SpaceX's IPO actually want to buy Starlink.

2. Space: Rocket is a mote, but not a profit pillar

The Space segment includes Falcon, Dragon, Starship, government and commercial launches, etc.

In 2025, the Space segment had sales of $4.086 billion, operating loss of $657 million, and Segment Adjusted EBITDA of $653 million. In the January-March period of 2026, the company had an operating loss of $662 million on sales of $619 million.

The rocket business is not a profitable business when viewed on its own.

However, it would be wrong to treat this as a simple loss-making business. For SpaceX, rockets are the foundation for launching Starlink satellites, building future space infrastructure and creating barriers to entry that make it difficult for competitors to catch up.

Rather than being a pillar of profit, it is the mote for the entire company.

3. AI: Growth driver or giant cash burner?

The roughest part of this S-1 was the AI segment.

In 2025, the AI ​​segment will have sales of $3.201 billion, operating loss of $6.355 billion, and Segment Adjusted EBITDA of $1.237 billion. In the January-March period of 2026 alone, the company had an operating loss of $2.469 billion against sales of $818 million.

AI is generating sales, but the capital investment and losses are even greater.

Company-wide capital investment for the January-March period of 2026 will be approximately $10.1 billion, of which the AI ​​segment will account for $7.723 billion. The ratio is approximately 76%. This can be said to be a shift in SpaceX's capital allocation towards AI infrastructure companies rather than space companies.

Anthropic Contract: A big card that fills the AI deficit

The part of S-1 that the market is most likely to react to is the cloud service contract with Anthropic.

SpaceX has disclosed that Anthropic has signed a contract to pay $1.25 billion per month until May 2029 for the computing power of COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. On an annual basis, this amount is approximately 15 billion dollars.

This is quite large.

Considering Starlink's 2025 revenue was $11.387 billion, the Anthropic deal alone will exceed Starlink's annual revenue. Of course, considering the gradual ramp-up of capacity, cancellation clauses, GPU/power/depreciation costs, etc., sales will not directly translate into profits.

Still, the way AI investments are viewed will change.

This is because there is now room to evaluate the company as an AI infrastructure business that sells computing resources to external customers, rather than simply developing Grok in the red.

Company-wide performance: Sales are increasing, but the deficit is also large

On a company-wide basis, sales in 2025 were $18.674 billion, operating loss was $2.589 billion, and net loss was $4.937 billion.

In the January-March 2026 period, the company had sales of $4.694 billion, an operating loss of $1.943 billion, and a net loss of $4.276 billion.

This is the difficulty with the SpaceX IPO.

Starlink alone is strong. If it's just the rocket business, there are dreams and government contracts. If it's just AI, like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta, it's a matter of whether the market will allow a huge investment.

It's all in one company.

Investors should make no mistake about which story they are paying for.

Initial price formation: popular but not safe

When viewed as a short-term IPO, SpaceX is likely to become a textbook "super popular IPO."

The headlines are AI, space, Starlink, Elon Musk, Nasdaq, and the biggest in history. Individual investors are likely to have a strong desire to participate, and institutional investors are also forced to consider adopting indexes and creating mega-caps.

The easy mistake the market makes here is thinking that ``it's safe because it's popular.''

The more popular an IPO is, the more likely the initial price will jump. However, the expected value after the initial price becomes heavier accordingly. In the case of SpaceX in particular, investors who buy immediately after going public are buying a company that includes not only Starlink's profits, but also AI losses, Starship development, Musk's control, and affiliated company risks.

Should we only look at the initial price?

Will you hold it for the long term while looking at the quarterly financial results from 2027 onwards?

These two are completely different games.

Stock price/market scenario towards 2027

SpaceX is in the early S-1 stage, so the stock price itself does not yet exist.

Here, we will summarize the market evaluation towards 2027 based on a scenario, starting from the market capitalization of around 1.75 trillion dollars, which is recognized based on media reports.

Rising scenario: Mega cap established above $2 trillion

In the upward scenario, SpaceX will be evaluated for "Starlink's highly profitable communications infrastructure" + "AI computing infrastructure" + "space data center concept" at the same time.

In this case, there is a possibility that a market capitalization of over $2 trillion will become established.

However, this is not an evaluation of the stock as a "stable communications stock." It is a fairly risky asset that buys AI infrastructure, space transportation, satellite communications, and Mr. Musk's execution ability all at once.

Downside scenario: Re-evaluate with AI cash burn

In a downside scenario, the market will weigh AI investments heavily.

In this case, SpaceX will be sold not as a "dreamy space stock" but as a "supersized AI cash burn stock."

Immediately after an IPO, it tends to be a celebratory market. However, as quarterly results begin to accumulate in 2027, stock prices will begin to look at cash flow rather than the story.

Risks that investors should look at

1. The scale of AI investment is too large

AI segment capital investment in 2025 will be $12.727 billion, and in the January-March period of 2026 alone it will be $7.723 billion.

This is more like a large-scale bet on the AI ​​infrastructure race than a typical growth investment. NVIDIA GPUs, power, data center, cooling, network, human resources. All expensive.

Even if Starlink makes money, if AI uses more than that, the company as a whole will be in the red.

2. Governance and voting rights

Class A shares have 1 voting right, and Class B shares have 10 voting rights.

Reuters reports that the structure is such that Mr. Musk will remain in strong control even after the company goes public. The S-1 also shows a structure in which Class B shareholders have the right to elect a majority of the board of directors.

This may appeal to investors betting on Musk's ability to execute. On the other hand, it provides a clear discount factor for investors who place importance on the governance of general shareholders.

3. Technology is moving too far ahead.

The space data center concept is a very big story.

Solar power, space cooling, Starship mass transit, intersatellite communications, and in-orbit maintenance. It would certainly be powerful if it were realized.

However, the stock market will always ask, "When will it turn into sales?"

The stock price in 2027 will be determined more by how much cash COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II will generate on the ground than by the concept itself.

4. Affiliated Company Risk

Musk's companies, including xAI, X, Tesla, and Neuralink, are close to each other.

This proximity also creates synergy. However, it also becomes a risk when capital movements, contract terms, management resource allocation, and brand damage occur.

From my perspective as a shareholder of SpaceX alone, it is important to see how transparently the company's relationships with other mask companies are disclosed.

Investment strategy: If you want to buy, look at it as “SpaceX stock including AI” instead of “Starlink stock”

It is dangerous to view the SpaceX IPO simply as an opportunity to buy Starlink.

Starlink is certainly strong. In 2025, it will generate sales of $11.387 billion and operating profit of $4.423 billion. As a communications infrastructure stock, it looks quite attractive.

However, Starlink alone will not be listed.

SpaceX includes deficits in the AI ​​segment, Starship R&D, Mr. Musk's control, space data center concept, Anthropic contract, Grok, and X.

There are three points to look at.

Personally, I would like to see the profit and loss and cash flow of the AI segment in the first quarterly results after listing, rather than jumping in at the initial price.

There is no doubt that SpaceX is an amazing company. However, stocks of great companies are not always good investments.

Summary

With SpaceX's S-1 filing, one of the world's largest IPOs is becoming a reality.

The scheduled ticker is SPCX. Applications for listing on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas have been confirmed. Based on media reports, the market capitalization is in the $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion range, the company is expected to raise funds in the $50 billion to $75 billion range, and start trading in mid-June.

However, listing on June 1, 2026 is not confirmed. The number of shares and price range for the first S-1 have not yet been released. If you keep this vague and buy just the headline ``Largest IPO in history,'' you will be easily swayed by price movements after the initial price.

Looking at the disclosures, SpaceX is no longer a pure space company. Starlink makes money, the Space business creates motes, and the AI ​​business consumes huge amounts of capital while trying to capture future growth.

In order to establish a market capitalization of over $2 trillion in 2027, it is necessary to demonstrate the potential for recovery of AI investments. In particular, the focus will be on how much profit the $1.25 billion monthly contract with Anthropic will turn into.

SpaceX is not a stable telecom stock.

This is a mega-risk asset that uses Starlink's cash as collateral to buy the future of AI and space infrastructure.

Reference information

• SEC EDGAR: Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Form S-1 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/0001628280-26-036936-index.htm
• SpaceX Form S-1 text https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm
• Axios "Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO filing is out" https://www.axios.com/2026/05/20/elon-musk-spacex-ipo
• AP News "SpaceX reveals plans for what could be the biggest-ever sale of stock to the public" https://apnews.com/article/spacex-initial-public-offering-musk-da83ecf78085755a522b8376254a8273
• Kiplinger “SpaceX IPO: Should You Buy SPCX Stock?” https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/spacex-stock-should-you-buy-the-biggest-ipo-ever
• Reuters (Reprinted on Investing.com) "SpaceX IPO filing lays bare losses and Musk control as it stakes future on AI" https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/bound-for-mars-elon-musks-spacex-unveils-filing-for-blockbuster-ipo-4702463